I like that he suggests the car must provide the necessary range for an "aggressive" driver, and that it must be useful in all seasons. Around here, the air conditioner is run 9 months out of the year, and in an electric car the heater is going to be a huge burden on the system in many locations.
But I would go a step further. Perhaps 98% of the time I drive my commuter-car simply to work and back home, and most stops (for dinner or groceries) tend to be not far out of the way. But there are occasions when I may have to make an out-of-the-way excursion. My drive is 36 miles each way, but if I need to make a trip up north of town for some reason, I could easily add 30 more miles. If I go to my brother's house, that's 20 miles further from my house, adding 40 miles to my round trip.
Before I would buy an all-electric vehicle, I would want one with a 250 mile range under the worst conditions. With that vehicle I would normally only have to charge it every three days, and I would be able to handle most of the "unusual" days as well.
Electric cars: Three secrets to success
October 14, 2010 | Length: 00:02:26
Kevin Czinger, CEO of battery and electric car designer and manufacturer CODA Automotive, talks about how his company looks at the market. He identifies what it will take for the average consumer to want to buy an all-electric vehicle and why models from Ford, GM, and Toyota failed to gain traction. He speaks at GoingGreen Silicon Valley 2010 in San Francisco.
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RE: Electric cars: Three secrets to success
Posted by mfa@...
20th Oct 2010
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RE: Electric cars: Three secrets to success
Posted by BobP64
25th Oct 2010
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RE: Electric cars: Three secrets to success
Posted by AlanLaRue
15th Oct 2010
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RE: Electric cars: Three secrets to success
The main problems with lack of adoption of large numbers of EVs in the 1990s in CA were: 1) small number made, 2) leased instead of sold, 3) industry efforts to undermine, 4) lousy advertising and PR campaign, and 5) crushing the EV1s and others at the end when many wanted to buy them - consider that Toyota capitulated and offered to sell a certain number over the course of a month or so, and then was shocked at how quickly they sold out and had to piece together some more RAV4 EVs from parts; they continued to be shocked by subsequent prius sales, not producing enough to meet demand.
Electric cars do best in warmer climates, so as far as climate goes, could have a huge market in the warmer parts of the U.S. - CA, the southwest, FL and across the deep south. Reliability in all climates is not a real issue to gain enough early market share. Just as people in Alaska don't drive corvettes in the winter, they wouldn't drive the current EVs either, but that doesn't mean there is not a large enough market. As for range, the EV1 and Toyota RAV4 EV had ranges over 100 miles in the 1990s, although I can't recall if they met the "aggressive driver" (aka stupid driver) test. Today's technology should improve that range. AC, which is needed most when sunny, can be run off solar cells on the roof that keep the car comfortable even when parked or stuck in traffic without drawing on the battery; also, as EVs do not generate as much heat as an ICE, there will be less need for the AC. Heaters can make use of heat from the motor, as they do in ICEs, although I don't know if it will have to draw on the battery.
As for charging, there is home and little by little shopping (best buy and others), work, highway rest stops where cars can be plugged in, plus there are the battery swap stations that mechanically change batteries in under 2 minutes.
Electric cars do best in warmer climates, so as far as climate goes, could have a huge market in the warmer parts of the U.S. - CA, the southwest, FL and across the deep south. Reliability in all climates is not a real issue to gain enough early market share. Just as people in Alaska don't drive corvettes in the winter, they wouldn't drive the current EVs either, but that doesn't mean there is not a large enough market. As for range, the EV1 and Toyota RAV4 EV had ranges over 100 miles in the 1990s, although I can't recall if they met the "aggressive driver" (aka stupid driver) test. Today's technology should improve that range. AC, which is needed most when sunny, can be run off solar cells on the roof that keep the car comfortable even when parked or stuck in traffic without drawing on the battery; also, as EVs do not generate as much heat as an ICE, there will be less need for the AC. Heaters can make use of heat from the motor, as they do in ICEs, although I don't know if it will have to draw on the battery.
As for charging, there is home and little by little shopping (best buy and others), work, highway rest stops where cars can be plugged in, plus there are the battery swap stations that mechanically change batteries in under 2 minutes.
Posted by swatter
18th Oct 2010
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RE: Electric cars: Three secrets to success
In addition, the Leaf already has 19,000 or so orders, sold out. Why is he talking about 10,000 and in the future?
Posted by swatter
18th Oct 2010
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RE: Electric cars: Three secrets to success
I have some ideas to help with adaptations for Electric Vehicles, who wants/needs to hear them? I believe there should be some kind of incubator type that possibly could use a little jolt.
James Parry
James Parry
Posted by JamesParry
19th Oct 2010
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RE: Electric cars: Three secrets to success
What swatter said, especially wrt to the EV1. The movie ("Who killed the electric car?") showed wildly enthusastic users, and implied the GM/Big Oil conspiracy was the killer; perhaps success was the problem. No rational reason was given for the takeback and crushing of the cars.
The issue of the extended trip is tough to solve with today's battery/charger technology, so ICE-based range extension like the Volt's on-board generator, monotrailer add-on generators, or hybrid systems will have to do for now.
All in all, while I would love to have an all-electric car, I love my Prius enough to put up with the lousy mileage, ICE maintenance, and ICE noise, and will probably buy more of them until something significantly better comes along.
The issue of the extended trip is tough to solve with today's battery/charger technology, so ICE-based range extension like the Volt's on-board generator, monotrailer add-on generators, or hybrid systems will have to do for now.
All in all, while I would love to have an all-electric car, I love my Prius enough to put up with the lousy mileage, ICE maintenance, and ICE noise, and will probably buy more of them until something significantly better comes along.
Posted by mfa@...
20th Oct 2010
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RE: Electric cars: Three secrets to success
It's the price, mon!
Posted by ITOdeed
25th Oct 2010
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RE: Electric cars: Three secrets to success
Price DOES come into the equation at some point, but, when you consider the small volume that these cars are being made and the volume of cars far more expensive, it is not as big a determining factor at this point in time - but I agree - it will be important in the (possibly near) future. What price point would I shoot for? Well, I personally think that Tesla has hit the nail on the head with their Model S, a 4 door sedan that, while it's 50k after tax incentive, should bring the "effective" price down to somewhere around 30-35k after you consider 10 years of savings on gas, and that's considering electricity at $0.16/kwh. Will electricity go up, sure, but I bet gas goes up more than electricity does!!!
To make a car successful you need to determine the target market, the average and total miles driven both EACH day, per WORK WEEK, and ON THE WEEKEND. In addition, the reduction in useful capacity of the battery over it's useful lifetime should be taken into account.
Once you have a battery that will support the average person for 2-3 average days when it is near the end of life (say 70% charge) then you have a viable car.
Several sites list the "average commute" as being 26 minutes - roughly 16 miles. Let's say we go with almost double that number - say 30 miles. A round trip then becomes 60 miles. Add in a side trip of 10 miles and, assume that the side trip does not allow a shorter way home so it in essence adds 20 miles. Now we have 80 miles. If an electric car existed that could run somewhere between 160 and 240 miles on a charge at the end of the battery's life (70% meaning 230-340 miles for the battery when new) then we KNOW we'd have a winner.
The current leaf quotes 100 miles as a range, but, on their web site the provide a few different scenarios with ranges from 62 - 138 miles, but they did not talk about battery range decreases over time!!!
While some of the other posters here made some excellent comments, I'd like to bring up a few additional points.
1) Before the car is driven in the morning, it would be simple to have it programmed to acclimatize - that is, heat itself up PRIOR to being unplugged - just like a remote starter would heat up a gas car. That would save any initial battery drain when heating up the inside of the car including the mass of things such as the seats/etc. Of course, the A/C could also be run while it was plugged in if the car was in a hot climate or sitting in the sun.
2) Someone mentioned that A/C could be run off solar cells, but I question that statement. An A/C compressor typically pulls about 10-15 hp from the motor, which equates to 7.5-11 kilowatts of power, not something you'll get from solar panels on a car! I think the Prius uses solar cells but only to run a fan and keep the air exchange going just so the air doesn't heat up as much inside.
3) EVs do not generate as much heat, but they DO require cooling, specifically the batteries must be cooled. I'm not sure if the electric motors will require cooling but I'm sure that has been considered. This heat is "free" in the winter and excess in the summer (obviously), but since it is available, the energy might be able to be harnessed to run a heat pump for the A/C.
4) The BIGGEST problem the EV cars are going to have is opposition from BIG OIL. They are going to see their profits slowly slipping through their fingers. They killed electric cars AT LEAST ONCE, more than once if you consider the fact that GM/Big Oil were behind the demise of the electric streetcar years ago.
5) As to range - as one person mentioned, some method of extending the range could be accomplished by using an ICE (like the Volt), but personally, I would rather due without the added a) cost, b) maintenance c) space and d) noise and e) everything else that an ICE requires. One way around this would be to provide a "quick mount" in the trunk for an optional ICE that acts as a generator only and include a small gas tank with it of somewhere between 5-10 gallons max! Of course, a simple trailer would work as well and could be handled as a totally separate maintenance item. It could also be "rented" separately, so one need not bear the entire cost of purchase and maintenance if such an item was only used occasionally!!!
I will NOT buy a Prius, Leaf, or any other foreign automobile, BUT, I will ALSO not buy a GM product (because they have stifled innovation more than they have helped it). I am hoping and waiting for the Tesla Model S and yes, I plan to put in a reservation for one come January 2011.
To make a car successful you need to determine the target market, the average and total miles driven both EACH day, per WORK WEEK, and ON THE WEEKEND. In addition, the reduction in useful capacity of the battery over it's useful lifetime should be taken into account.
Once you have a battery that will support the average person for 2-3 average days when it is near the end of life (say 70% charge) then you have a viable car.
Several sites list the "average commute" as being 26 minutes - roughly 16 miles. Let's say we go with almost double that number - say 30 miles. A round trip then becomes 60 miles. Add in a side trip of 10 miles and, assume that the side trip does not allow a shorter way home so it in essence adds 20 miles. Now we have 80 miles. If an electric car existed that could run somewhere between 160 and 240 miles on a charge at the end of the battery's life (70% meaning 230-340 miles for the battery when new) then we KNOW we'd have a winner.
The current leaf quotes 100 miles as a range, but, on their web site the provide a few different scenarios with ranges from 62 - 138 miles, but they did not talk about battery range decreases over time!!!
While some of the other posters here made some excellent comments, I'd like to bring up a few additional points.
1) Before the car is driven in the morning, it would be simple to have it programmed to acclimatize - that is, heat itself up PRIOR to being unplugged - just like a remote starter would heat up a gas car. That would save any initial battery drain when heating up the inside of the car including the mass of things such as the seats/etc. Of course, the A/C could also be run while it was plugged in if the car was in a hot climate or sitting in the sun.
2) Someone mentioned that A/C could be run off solar cells, but I question that statement. An A/C compressor typically pulls about 10-15 hp from the motor, which equates to 7.5-11 kilowatts of power, not something you'll get from solar panels on a car! I think the Prius uses solar cells but only to run a fan and keep the air exchange going just so the air doesn't heat up as much inside.
3) EVs do not generate as much heat, but they DO require cooling, specifically the batteries must be cooled. I'm not sure if the electric motors will require cooling but I'm sure that has been considered. This heat is "free" in the winter and excess in the summer (obviously), but since it is available, the energy might be able to be harnessed to run a heat pump for the A/C.
4) The BIGGEST problem the EV cars are going to have is opposition from BIG OIL. They are going to see their profits slowly slipping through their fingers. They killed electric cars AT LEAST ONCE, more than once if you consider the fact that GM/Big Oil were behind the demise of the electric streetcar years ago.
5) As to range - as one person mentioned, some method of extending the range could be accomplished by using an ICE (like the Volt), but personally, I would rather due without the added a) cost, b) maintenance c) space and d) noise and e) everything else that an ICE requires. One way around this would be to provide a "quick mount" in the trunk for an optional ICE that acts as a generator only and include a small gas tank with it of somewhere between 5-10 gallons max! Of course, a simple trailer would work as well and could be handled as a totally separate maintenance item. It could also be "rented" separately, so one need not bear the entire cost of purchase and maintenance if such an item was only used occasionally!!!
I will NOT buy a Prius, Leaf, or any other foreign automobile, BUT, I will ALSO not buy a GM product (because they have stifled innovation more than they have helped it). I am hoping and waiting for the Tesla Model S and yes, I plan to put in a reservation for one come January 2011.
Posted by BobP64
25th Oct 2010
Transcript
Music
>>
Narrator: We are really looking for the initially 10,000-plus early adopters who are going to buy and use this car. If you look at what the vehicle requirements are for what we think is a version 1.0 all electric car, what we really did was look back to the EV-1 days and to see why, from all of the data both Ford and GM had, and then later, Toyota had from their RAV4 conversion, why there really failed to be, in part, consumer adoption. And going back, we looked and we said there needs to be, even for the initial innovator early adopters, a minimum range, which we called 90 to 100 mile -- we used the USO6 test for that, which means the aggressive driving test. Number two, you needed to have that range be reliable across different seasons, the normal seasons in the United States. And the third thing is, we don't believe that people are going to be looking for charging stations. They are going to want to know when they get in that car, "What is my estimated range and can I get home?", which are the two things we will always have on the screen in front of people. If you look at those things, we say those meet all of the day-to-day normal driving needs of people that are commuting, taking their children to school, etc., so we are focused on the 10,000-plus early adopters who will take this car, will want to move away from dependence on oil, will want something if it's safe, if it's reliable, even across different temperatures and different seasons, if it's easy to charge at home -- you know, that they can use for, unplugging, taking their children to school, commuting, doing all of those things, and then we will view them as being, you know, fairly affluent, people that are technology savvy, people that are environmentally conscious, and who will get a lot of positive psychological benefit from saying, "I can do all of these things in a very safe, reliable car that doesn't use an ounce of oil, where I never have to go to a gas station again," and that is the start of what can be a technology revolution.
Music
==== Transcribed by Automatic Sync Technologies ====