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The government may have got its sums wrong on climate change, says a new report from the UK Energy Research Centre. According to the document, previous estimates on carbon emission cuts failed to take into account a quirk of human nature called the 'rebound effect'.
This effect means that when people save energy or money, they will probably spend it elsewhere. For example, if someone buys a more fuel efficient car then it's likely they will drive it more because they can afford to. Similarly, a family who insulates its home and saves money on heating may well spend that spare cash on an overseas holiday.
This effect may be the reason that government figures on expected emissions cuts often turn out to be rather optimistic. Very often they are based solely on simple and logical engineering principles, which isn't the way humans work.
"Rebound effects have been neglected by both experts and policymakers. This is a mistake. We need to get the sums right," says Steve Sorrell, the chief author of the UKERC’s report. The problem is, researchers aren't sure just how big the effect is. Some claim that it's insignificant, but others claim that reducing emissions in one place may actually lead to an overall rise in emissions.
However large the effect, it needs to be taken into account, says the UKERC report. Certainly, accurate estimates are more important now than ever before, as the government plans how to reach its target of reducing carbon emissions by 60 per cent by 2050.
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