Cornucopian Illusions & Technology Undershoot
James,
However many few years it takes to manifest itself, yes, NG prices will eventually go through the roof, and if we aren't preparing ourselves with alternatives in the meantime the economy will go through the floor. I'm guessing that NG prices will have at least doubled by next winter. The fracking drillers are backing off of drilling and what with the very short output time frames of these wells, when drilling is curtailed, output is curtailed rapidly. Neither of us can presume to estimate with any accuracy what that will mean. That's why analysts like Chris are so valuable in finding the trend lines.
As cheap fossil fuels diminish, what makes you so certain that tech will have the energy backbone to save the day. It looks to me that tech isn't likely to keep up with falling supply and once there is a shortfall, basic needs become paramount. Tech has to play second fiddle, running the treadmill even slower. Diminishing returns are the order of this century, and wishing/willing it different is a con game.
