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There is a disconnect between the 2011 actual demand for products in http://omrpublic.iea.org/demand/oc_tp_dg.pdf and the IEA projection for oil in 2012 here: http://omrpublic.iea.org/world/wb_wodem.pdf .
You can't have a nearly four percent year over year decline for refined product and project a one percent increase in demand for un-refined product. Those are the fundamentals I refer to and the reason why I question why prices have not broken south.

But you are right, we are drifting off topic. I agree with the rest of your framework. Ultimately, time will tell the rest.