Talking past one another
I think the issue is that you and your opponents talk past one another.
You say that conventional crude production is peaked and we need to do something about it. They say that conventional crude production is peaked and we are doing something else. They point to tar sands and super heavy crude from the orinoco basin and methane hydrates, et al. Their view is that, as the price of conventional crude moves up, then that will prompt substitutions. My impression by your statement "Price is not a proxy for production." is that you view the price mechanism as inadequate to create meaningful substitutions. Either that or you have a prejudice against the use of distillates for fuel, industrial production or consumer goods.
