Peak Oil is tough to predict
There's one problem with Nelder's approach; he neglects the effects of technology improvement on the production of conventional crude oil. About a decade ago, we thought we had reach peak natural gas production in the U.S. Large companies, including Exxon, and new ventures, such as Cheniere Energy, began investing 100's of millions of dollars to build Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) import terminals, so that we could import LNG from foreign natural gas producers. Along came horizontal drilling and fracturing technology, and the shale gas plays. All of those LNG terminals are now in the process of being reconfigured to *export* LNG. So much for peak U.S. natural gas production.
The same fracking technology applied to natural gas production is beginning to be applied to crude oil production. The peak oil production point is being pushed off into the future by improved technology. So, yes, we ought to be concerned about peak oil, but we shouldn't get into a Malthusian tizzy over it. We're still a long way from peak oil production. If crude oil is to be unseated from it's preeminent position as the source of fuels used for transportation any time in the next several decades, it's going to have to come from significant improvements in other competing technologies which as yet, and for the foreseeable future, cannot compete economically.
