New technogies are always risky...by definition
Yes maybe fracking won't yield nearly as much gas as people hope. And maybe fracking will indeed cause significant problems with fresh water supplies and so will have to be severely curtailed. But (as Chris Nelder is honest enough to point out) maybe not. The point is that we just won't know until we try.
The important thing is not to rely on any particular new technology until its place in the energy mix has been proven. So taking a responsible attitude towards planning our energy future means deploying a lineup of different tecchnologies in descending order of feasibility and availability and recognising that the order may change several times over the years ahead. That logic means that we must inevitably start with fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas and nuclear) because they are the proven technologies that are actually working right now. Of these only nuclear has a low carbon footprint. So for those alarmists (not me) who are obsessed with fears of dangerous man-induced climate change, the logic should be to reduce dependency on oil, coal and gas by increasing nuclear capability. Then, as the various renewable energy sources do become more mature and available over time, the nuclear capability can be reduced proportionately. But, if the renewables don't perform quite as well as we all hope, or take longer to do so than we plan, we will not be left high and dry with an energy shortage.
What I am saying is that nuclear is currently the least worst option and we would be crazy not to exercise that option while carrying out the development of renewable energy alternatives. To rely today on the imminent arrival of new unproven technologies (including shale gas) for our energy future would be very foolhardy indeed.
The problem is that the same people who want to get rid of the CO2-generating fuels are also neurotic about nuclear. Why this should be so is not clear since nuclear is a carbon-minimal form of power generation which also has an incredibly safe track record. So they are left trying to persuade the rest of us that the renewable alternatives are more proven and advanced than they actually are. This wishful thinking is in danger of destroying the West as the Chinese and other emerging nations march cheerfully on towards a safe, clean and predominantly nuclear future.
