The world is not simple enough for these pronouncements.
While I doubt we will actually become oil exporters as we once were (look it up, we were) I do think that combined with other sources we might become more self sufficient. And, we might still end up exporting refined gas and the like if it makes sense.
As to the keeping the consumption under some arbitrary amount I say "Ha!".
The simple truth is people are going to continue to use what they enjoy. While those at the top would be quite content to reduce what the rest of the world uses, they are not about to give up "their" limos, private planes, over sized homes, and other toys.
And since the "little people" like to ape "their betters" I can't see them easily giving them up either. Many of the wealthy have their wealth based on such consumption, so they have a vested interest in continuing along that path.
Over time, if prices rise, more people will switch to more efficient vehicles, public transportation, etc. provided it actually makes sense for them to do so. More people
would use public transportation if it got them where they needed to go in a timely/safe fashion.
Really, the world we live in has too many competing interests to really know what tomorrow will bring. We can make educated guesses, but our models had better be able to be adjusted. In other words, the theory that we will become a net exporter is NOT impossible, I just would not count on it.
