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This has been coming for quite some time.
Even before the 1500-hour rule, unless you were trained by the military it was already insanely expensive to train to be a commercial pilot. And even then, most entry-level commercial pilot openings (usually with charter or regional carriers) barely pay poverty-level wages. Most pilots chose to do this anyway because it was the primary track to the ultimate goal; working at the majors, which in an earlier era paid 6-figure salaries and offered lavish benefits, job security and pensions.
The problem now is that the lavish wages, job security and benefits that pilots could assume would be waiting further up the food chain disappeared over a decade ago. On the other end, cost of training (largely driven by fuel costs) has more than doubled. And today there are relatively few pilots coming out of the military to fill the gap.
The economic case for becoming a pilot has been rather sketchy for decades now. Especially with the new rule, it can now cost hundreds-of-thousands of dollars to get adequately trained and build the hours needed to get hired. It's not unlike becoming a doctor; but except that in all likelihood, your income potential, even 10 years out isn't even 6-figures, and may never be.
Ironically, the reasoning for the 1500-hour rule is to increase pilot skill and experience. The way that most non-military pilots build up flight hours is by becoming flight instructors themselves. This allows them to log hours while someone else (the student) pays the fuel bill. And they'll work for practically nothing, since their real goal isn't wages, but building the flight hours. The cheaper they work, the more hours they can teach, and the faster they can arrive at the next step in their career.
The problem here is that the cost of flight instruction is depressed, keeping out most high-time, high-quality professional instructors who can't make a decent living by instruction alone. (Most older instructors I know have done it as a hobby, and not as a primary source of income) This means that much of the flight instruction taking place today is done by people who are low-time, lesser-skilled, and who unfortunately have little interest in instructing at all. They are only there because it's a means to an end. And as soon as they've got the hours they need to be hired on somewhere, they're gone. The irony is that the quality of primary flight instruction suffers because of this, and it's lead to the kind of disasters that have prompted implementation of the 1500-hour rule. Just because now these low-time pilots will have to spend twice the time before getting hired won't necessarily make them, or the next generation, better pilots.
Of course, that's assuming there will be a next generation of pilots willing to go to such expense for a career that is so unstable, has become miserable to work for, and pays a fraction of what it did a generation ago. Much of those 1500 hours will have to be in multi-engine and turbine aircraft that cost hundreds of dollars per hour to operate. (Think >$6/gallon fuel in an airplane that consumes at least 10-15 gallons per hour per engine) Unless they're starting out with deep pockets, go into absurd and unjustified levels of student loan debt, or are lucky enough to build time on someone else's dime, it's not likely to happen in the numbers needed by the industry to survive.
The problem now is that the lavish wages, job security and benefits that pilots could assume would be waiting further up the food chain disappeared over a decade ago. On the other end, cost of training (largely driven by fuel costs) has more than doubled. And today there are relatively few pilots coming out of the military to fill the gap.
The economic case for becoming a pilot has been rather sketchy for decades now. Especially with the new rule, it can now cost hundreds-of-thousands of dollars to get adequately trained and build the hours needed to get hired. It's not unlike becoming a doctor; but except that in all likelihood, your income potential, even 10 years out isn't even 6-figures, and may never be.
Ironically, the reasoning for the 1500-hour rule is to increase pilot skill and experience. The way that most non-military pilots build up flight hours is by becoming flight instructors themselves. This allows them to log hours while someone else (the student) pays the fuel bill. And they'll work for practically nothing, since their real goal isn't wages, but building the flight hours. The cheaper they work, the more hours they can teach, and the faster they can arrive at the next step in their career.
The problem here is that the cost of flight instruction is depressed, keeping out most high-time, high-quality professional instructors who can't make a decent living by instruction alone. (Most older instructors I know have done it as a hobby, and not as a primary source of income) This means that much of the flight instruction taking place today is done by people who are low-time, lesser-skilled, and who unfortunately have little interest in instructing at all. They are only there because it's a means to an end. And as soon as they've got the hours they need to be hired on somewhere, they're gone. The irony is that the quality of primary flight instruction suffers because of this, and it's lead to the kind of disasters that have prompted implementation of the 1500-hour rule. Just because now these low-time pilots will have to spend twice the time before getting hired won't necessarily make them, or the next generation, better pilots.
Of course, that's assuming there will be a next generation of pilots willing to go to such expense for a career that is so unstable, has become miserable to work for, and pays a fraction of what it did a generation ago. Much of those 1500 hours will have to be in multi-engine and turbine aircraft that cost hundreds of dollars per hour to operate. (Think >$6/gallon fuel in an airplane that consumes at least 10-15 gallons per hour per engine) Unless they're starting out with deep pockets, go into absurd and unjustified levels of student loan debt, or are lucky enough to build time on someone else's dime, it's not likely to happen in the numbers needed by the industry to survive.
Edited by JohnMcGrew@...
Updated - 14th Nov