is your analysis reasonable? nope
coal generated electricity is at it's lowest levels in 15 years, and natural gas generated electricity is at it's highest levels of all time
the capacity to switch from gas back to coal is the largest in American history.
"I don't want to take the risk of trying to time the market " right that's code for "I don't have faith the price will rebound significantly in the next 5 years".
I hope you haven't bet your full IRA on the 2018 prices, the industry might have a few tricks up their sleeve.
you know many drillers? I do, the public is underestimating the learning curve, and likely, so are you. This could be a 10 year glut, and not a 5 year glut.
5 years of debunking Chris Nelder will be fun, 10 years, ahh, even better.