coal obvious in control of the price ceiling
our friend brazil_83 has some funny ideas, it seems obvious that coal will control the "ceiling" for natural gas for sometime, if natural gas becomes (much) more expensive the utilities will switch back to coal.
so unless you think the price of coal is going to skyrocket (and why would it? peak coal is hundreds of years away) than gas will be $5 or less for quite some time.
Obvious, no?
But I too prefer to switch the infrastructure away from coal mining and towards fracking, and down the road, underground coal gasification.
If you read brazil_83 second post carefully you will see that his money is on $5 or less for the next 5-6 years, almost the exact same prediction as mine. In other words, he won't put money on futures that are less than 6 years out, meaning he won't bet against the futures market for less than 6 years.
That's fine, it's possible there is a futures spike and he makes his money, but the spot price is still going to be muted for the next half-decade.
And so, Chris Nelder has now decided that a spot price of $4 or more "debunks" shale gas. That is pretty funny, because 5 years ago, a spot price of $4 was wildly optimistic. It is Nelder whose history has been debunked by the recent glut, he is just showing some chutzpah here by claiming credit where none is due. Typical Nelder, really.
