Excellent analysis, but still almost all noise solution wise.
The geologic and supply and demand economic directions and predictions of natural gas are not logically predictable - simply because of the artificial unknowable/"black" affects of our "for profit democracy" political system and the greed that drives it. Chris, you are certainly entitled to defend your analysis processes which are very logically correct - but unfortunately near meaningless considering the politics involved.
For those trying to get to the crux of our energy problem/solutions - you made only one key statement: "The American people will soon need to make a choice between continuing to enjoy some of the lowest grid power costs in the developed world; a resurgence of domestic manufacturing for fertilizers, plastics and petrochemicals..."
Unfortunately, our "for profit democracy" politics negates any chance of the American people of having any real say so in the process - until their individual and personal survival is at painfully and obviously at stake.
Only the uninformed and pathologically patriotic think that any change in the executive office will alter the demonstrably corrupted "influence for sale" political system we have. Based on the last 50 years of politics - their is zero chance that change will come from the media industry driven soap opera politics and the voting booth. Personally, I'm not seeing the obvious logic of keeping critical non-renewable resources at home serving the US population - winning out over corporate and political greed wanting to export them -anymore than the outsourcing our industry was prevented.
I'm also not seeing the American people dealing with their lack of representational government on a pro-active basis, but rather reactionary when their physical survival is obviously at stake - and far too late.
