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An experienced and knowledgeable weather man, who knows the area in which he lives, and has observed the weather patterns for years, and who has a good working knowledge of weather, can almost always beat a computer model.

A computer can only report on what it knows, and it can't know everything that a 50-something weatherman has seen living in the same place all his live. Many computer models also seem to rely too heavily on history, i.e. this one will be the same as a previoius one.

Follow the iso bars... the weather does.