excellent - a real prediction from Chris Nelder
". One need look back no farther than 2005 to find plenty of pollyannish projections in reports from the EIA and IEA, and in op-eds in the Wall Street Journal. None of those projections panned out."
NONE of them? Really?
Tell that to the folks getting rich in the Bakken . Tell that to the factories and utilities enjoying the cheapest natural gas in modern history. Shale energy production has far, far exceeded even the most optimistic predictions.
Most of the shale yields have been in the form of dry gas. This makes sense, since gas was quite expensive throughout the 2004-2008 time frame. (More expensive than oil, if one bases the comparison on long term historical ratios.)
Now this situation has reversed. Gas is cheap and oil is expensive. So we shall have the next 2-3 years to see how the wet shales perform.
At any rate, this dovetails with Mr. Nelders prediction. A "major tipping point" is only 2-3 years away. So, if we link back to this page in 2015, and nothing catastropic has happened with re: to global energy supply and production, it will give us a nice piece of information with re: to the integrity and accuracy of Mr. Nelder's world view.
