Why don’t companies apply more risk analysis to layoff decisions?

By Joe McKendrick | Nov 25, 2009 |

A few weeks back, we discussed the potential brain drain of talent away from North American shores. Just as threatening to growth and innovation is the potential brain drain from organizations: companies that made deep cuts in their workforces over the past two years risk driving away the talent they need to move ahead in the coming economic growth phase.

As reported last month, a Forbes-SAP study of 200 large companies shows leading executives are concerned that all the cutting that took place over the past year has hobbled their future growth prospects.

Amazingly, while many companies are increasingly basing their key decisions on analytics and data, when it comes to layoffs, they still tend to rely on gut thinking. Peter Cappelli, a management professor at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, says the risks are not only in brain drain, but also in increased litigation over the choices made during the economic downturn.

He cites a survey he saw in which two-thirds of companies engaged in layoffs were not involving their human resources managers in the decisions. “That is amazing,” he relates. “If you thought your human resource people are not good enough to give you answers to those questions, you should find some who are. But if you are not asking those questions, you are doing something wrong. You might as well just be flipping coins.”

These knee-jerk cuts run against the grain of everything businesses have been working toward in recent times. “It’s kind of amazing the extent to which companies are very sophisticated in supply chain analysis and thinking about how they buy parts and how they sell products, but when it comes to these people issues, they are just kind of going with their gut most of the time,” Cappelli says.

Before swinging the budget axe, companies need to apply the same analytics they apply to other critical decisions, Cappelli continues. Consider an “array of options. It is not as simple as, ‘do we layoff or not?’  There are lots of ways to think about the problem.”

Consider the costs and benefits of layoffs, Capelli urges. “Ask a lot of ‘why’ questions. ‘Why are we doing it? Is this the best way to cut if we have to cut costs? And what are the consequences of those costs?’”

Additional questions that need to be asked include: “What are the costs of cutting people? What do we think the benefits are? How long out will it go? And once we do it, what is our plan once business picks up? How long will that take? Will we be able to get people like this back? What are the effects on the people inside?”

Downsizing has earned the nickname “dumbsizing” for good reason. Workforce cuts are often necessary business decisions, but simply cutting 10% across the board without regard to the long-term mix of skills and employee motivation needed to move forward may be counter-productive. Who will be there to guide the business as new opportunities pick up again?

 
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  •  
    1

    georgeslacombe@...

    11/25/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Why don't companies apply more risk analysis to layoff decisions?

    In fact structured and technical Risk Analysis is done in very few areas in most companies. Most decisions are done based on management intuition. Risk analysis is often not well understood. Few people know that this is a tool that could be used in almost any area to enhance the quality of decisions taken.

    Georges

  •  
    2

    LarryPTL

    11/25/09 | Report as spam

    Excellent article!

    This is a well thought out point to be considered. Corporate board of directors need to pay close attention to this.

    The emphasis on short term profits is so powerful in America that long term plans frequently get swept aside. A CEO looking to retire in a year or two will sacrifice a company's long term profitability to bring in more short term profit and thereby sweeten his or her retirement package. It is the responsibility of a company's board of directors to sniff this kind of behavior out and squash it. Which can be hard to do when the CEO is also the chairman of the board.

  •  
    3

    Dr_Zinj

    11/25/09 | Report as spam

    Most managers are idiots

    They wouldn't recognize evidence-based decision making if it bit them in the butt.

    Probably a factor in why so many start-up fail within 5 years too.

  •  
    4

    cpuwzd

    11/25/09 | Report as spam

    A related phenomenon

    Within the past two years, I was working as a contract Senior Software Engineer. The company had a large percentage of contract employees, primarily to circumvent headcount limits. When things got rough, the bean counters, assuming that the contractors were simply providing excess capacity during good times, decided to terminate all contractors simultaneously with two hours notice to their managers. Exit interviews were chaotic and insufficient for transferring knowledge and plans. In my group, some of the most experienced members were terminated, gutting the ability of the group to complete its contractual commitments with the company's customers.

  •  
    5

    stilt21

    11/25/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Why don't companies apply more risk analysis to layoff decisions?

    there were two major companies that during the depression of the 1930s decided that cutting their research would seriously cripple their future. they were dupont and GE. both of them profited greatly in the years after WW II when they were able to market products that were discovered during the depression and brought to fuition later. many other companies were lost in the dust because they just closed their reseach doors figuring that this was wasted money. that thought has pervaded most boardrooms for decades, proving that most corporste leaders are not competent; the results show this.

  •  
    6

    buddhahead

    11/28/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Why don't companies apply more risk analysis to layoff decisions?

    From what I have seen in these last 18 years the decisions made by some companies has greatly crippled their R+D. Most recently many American workers involved in the Semiconductor field have been replaced by lower paid substandard workers. I personally know some extremely talented designers out there that can not find work. Some of these people have skills that are quite remarkable. Here is an example of the results of decisions that I have seen. In Analog design it is not uncommon to have four versions of a schematic before the cell is balanced and tuned. When I have worked with some of these replacement engineers H-1B, I have had as many as 52 versions of the same schematic and never fewer then 21 versions. These are simple schematics for the most part consisting of maybe 30 devices. This means I have to layout this device 52 times before the the tuning is considered usable. So the work goes from a day or days to weeks or even months. Sometimes I take the schematic and fix it myself. Simple stuff like making sure the Bulk connections are properly shown. I have heard many similar stories related to programming and other technical disciplines.

  •  
    7

    lehnerus2000

    12/02/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Why don't companies apply more risk analysis to layoff decisions?

    The answer is simple, no "valuable" people are laid off. The CEOs and their buddies all keep their jobs.

    Everybody "knows" that all work done, all products made and all services provided (by a company) are actually the result of of the CEOs individual hard work (no one else does anything useful).

    When a company has a good year, the CEO claims that he/she was single-handedly responsible. When there is a bad year, it is due to fickle consumers, evil competitors or the useless workers, as he/she isn't responsible for the day-to-day running of the business.

    There is never any "risk" to the CEO, even if the company goes under, they still get their multi-million dollar payouts.

    lehnerus2000

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    8

    nagabhushan9

    12/05/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Why don't companies apply more risk analysis to layoff decisions?

    depending upon the employers strength and the future expected projects once company may not be able to give layoff decisions and the market impact as we can observe in the present situation.

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Heather Clancy

Heather Clancy is an award-winning business journalist in the New York area with more than 20 years experience covering the high-tech industry. She has a passion for green IT and regularly covers business technology issues and trends. Her articles have appeared in Entrepreneur, Fortune Small Business, The International Herald Tribune and The New York Times.

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Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick is an author and independent analyst who tracks the impact of information technology on management and markets. Joe is also SOA community manager for ebizQ, and speaks frequently on Enterprise 2.0 and SOA topics at industry events and Webcasts. He also serves as lead analyst and author of Evans Data Corp.'s highly regarded bi-annual SOA/Web Services and Web 2.0 surveys. Joe writes a regular column for Database Trends & Applications, and has authored numerous research reports in partnership with Unisphere Research for user groups such as SHARE, Oracle Applications Users Group, and International DB2 Users Group. In a previous life, Joe served as director of the Administrative Management Society (AMS), an international professional association dedicated to advancing knowledge within the IT and business management fields.

Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick is an independent consultant and editor. Joe has performed project work for the following companies in the IT marketspace: IBM, Systinet/HP, Teradata. He has performed project work for the following organizations in partnership with Unisphere Research (Unisphere Media): IBM, Oracle Corp., International Oracle Users Group, Oracle Applications Users Group, Professional Association for SQL Server, International DB2 Users Group, International Sybase Users Group.
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