Fewer than 700 days until Internet addresses run out: should business be concerned?

By Joe McKendrick | Oct 28, 2009 |

Call it a mini, very mini, Y2K. But still important to prepare for nonetheless.

In a recent interview, John Curran, president and CEO of the American Registry for Internet Numbers, explained why businesses need to sit up and take notice of the impending shift that is taking place as we move from Internet Protocol version 4 (IPv4) to the more expansive IP version 6.

What’s happening is the original Internet numbering system — which assigns addresses such as 192.168.1.1 — is running out of numbers. IPv4 is a 32-bit system with four billion possible combinations. “That sounds like a lot of numbers, but it really isn’t when you think about the size of the globe and the number of devices being connected these days,” Curran says.  In fact, we’re due to run out of numbers within 700 days, he warns. IPv6, with 128-bit addressing space, enables “numbering of all of the molecules in the galaxy,” he says.

As soon as the last IPv4 number is used up, every new device or site that comes along after that uses IPv6. Don’t loose too much sleep over your systems, however. Industry planners have been aware of this matter since the 1990s. Most hardware and software has been ready for IPv6 for some time.

However, Curran advises businesses to check their configurations before the changeover takes place, as glitches may come up. “We can’t actually get an IPv6 host and an IPv4 server to talk to each other, because the IPv4 server only knows 32 bits. It’s much like if your telephone was set up to only ever dial seven digits, and it wouldn’t let you dial 10. Sure you could almost have a conversation, but you couldn’t call most of the world.”

When the changeover occurs, “ISPs are going to have to start using IPv6 to connect customers,” he explains. “Then, they’re going to have to put IPv6 gateways in, boxes that work like network address boxes, to translate IPv6-connected customers to the IPv4 websites on the Internet. That will work, but that’s going to be suboptimal, because those are gateways doing the translation.” This may slow down online applications such as Skype, Voice over IP, real-time video games, which “won’t necessarily run smoothly going through those translators.”

Curran points out that the Internet will be running on two protocols for some time. “If you really want to start a business that’s Internet based, you’re going to want to take your equipment, and make it connected by both IPv4 and IPv6.”

Some businesses have more of a challenge ahead of them than others, Curran continues. While the major ISPs have been underway with IPv6, “the content providers are just beginning to work on this,” Curran says. “And that’s going to take a lot of work, and they need to enable a lot of software that we think of as the Web 2.0 software infrastructure. While all the parts may run IPv6, that doesn’t mean your infrastructure is ready.”

Consider the two years remaining to address IPv6 configuration issues as an opportunity to get a jump on the competition, says Curran. “I would recommend that people start thinking about the fact that the IPv4 Internet has a fixed size, and the global Internet is going to keep growing. What this means that you don’t want to be left behind on the fixed-size network. You don’t want to be left behind on a fixed-sized network in an Internet ‘backwater.”

 
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  •  
    1

    nvrtis@...

    10/29/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Fewer than 700 days until Internet addresses run out: should business be concerned?

    Sure..

    And all computers are going to come to a halt in the year 2000 because some old programs can't tell the different be 2000 and 1900...

    And IPv4 was actually going to run out of addresses 15-20 years ago until they came up with subnets...

    And we were going to run out of 800 numbers, then 888, then 866, then..

    And the default rate on junk mortgages was only 3%..

  •  
    2

    Dr_Zinj

    10/29/09 | Report as spam

    Y2K IPv4 IPV6

    Some to a halt, but not all, and not most. Most would have had the wrong dates which would have messed up a lot of processes that were date/time dependent. Not that your Commodore 64-controlled coffee maker wouldn't have worked, but instead of turning on at 5 AM, January 1, 2000, it might have been waiting another hundred years to do so.

    IPv4 sould continue to work just fine on local levels or in stand-alone networks. Like the article says, they will be only operable within the local exchange office, and not have long distance capability.

  •  
    3

    Nyk

    10/29/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Fewer than 700 days until Internet addresses run out: should business be concerned?

    OMG Run... Scream!

  •  
    4

    mheartwood

    10/29/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Fewer than 700 days until Internet addresses run out: should business be concerned?

    I have yet to see and RFC that maps IPv4 addresses to IPv6 addresses. IN my opinion, it's what makes the most sense. If you have 10.20.30.40 as your IPv4 address, it should then become 0:0:0:0:0:0:0:0:0:0:0:0:10:20:30:40. That would make the switch-over easier for everyone.

  •  
    5

    pizzaman7

    10/30/09 | Report as spam

    700 Days ?????

    Who came up with that figure ? Out of a hat ?

    While it is important to move to IPv6 soon it is not so imperitive that in less than 2 years everything will cease to operate. Is Al Gore involved in this estimate ?

  •  
    6

    Joe McKendrick

    10/30/09 | Report as spam

    Re: 700 Days ?????

    I believe John Curran is calculating the daily consumption of new IP addresses, against the number already committed. Also, he didn't say everything would cease to operate, just that online services might slow down due to gateway transitions between the two protocols.

  •  
    7

    zackers

    10/31/09 | Report as spam

    RE: Fewer than 700 days until Internet addresses run out: should business be concerned?

    The article totally misses a much bigger picture, which is the last mile into the home. While all PC OSes support IPv6 now, what's the state of many embedded devices? To reach the increasingly used IPv6 space, all home routers, switches, etc. will have to either get a firmware upgrade or be replaced. I don't even know if many routers and switches can be upgraded, my guess is their hardware only supports IPv4. Many routers and other home equipment are probably obsolete and won't be upgraded by their manufacturers anyway even if they could be. Do MP3 players and cellphones that support WiFi support IPv6?

    ISPs and businesses know what to do, but your average home owner won't even have a clue as to what the problem is. And telling them they need to buy completely new home networking gear and WiFi enabled devices at several hundred dollars (much more costly than the recent transition to digital TV) is going to generate a lot of outrage.

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Heather Clancy

Heather Clancy is an award-winning business journalist in the New York area with more than 20 years experience covering the high-tech industry. She has a passion for green IT and regularly covers business technology issues and trends. Her articles have appeared in Entrepreneur, Fortune Small Business, The International Herald Tribune and The New York Times.

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Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick is an author and independent analyst who tracks the impact of information technology on management and markets. Joe is also SOA community manager for ebizQ, and speaks frequently on Enterprise 2.0 and SOA topics at industry events and Webcasts. He also serves as lead analyst and author of Evans Data Corp.'s highly regarded bi-annual SOA/Web Services and Web 2.0 surveys. Joe writes a regular column for Database Trends & Applications, and has authored numerous research reports in partnership with Unisphere Research for user groups such as SHARE, Oracle Applications Users Group, and International DB2 Users Group. In a previous life, Joe served as director of the Administrative Management Society (AMS), an international professional association dedicated to advancing knowledge within the IT and business management fields.

Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick is an independent consultant and editor. Joe has performed project work for the following companies in the IT marketspace: IBM, Systinet/HP, Teradata. He has performed project work for the following organizations in partnership with Unisphere Research (Unisphere Media): IBM, Oracle Corp., International Oracle Users Group, Oracle Applications Users Group, Professional Association for SQL Server, International DB2 Users Group, International Sybase Users Group.
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