Posting in Energy
Tesla CEO Elon Musk defies market analysis with his lofty forecast - but the man is often right about his predictions.
The mainstream consumer market has been slow to make the switch from gasoline-powered cars to electric vehicles, as many argue that the EVs on the market today fall short of consumer expectations. Germany, which had set itself a lofty goal of having one million electric cars on its roads by 2020, has backed off that target, with industry leaders arguing that consumers need more incentives to make the switch.
But Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, believes that electric vehicles are the future. Musk, whose all-electric Tesla Model S was recently unveiled to much acclaim, said he thinks that in 20 years, half of all new cars will be fully electric. He even gave a fixed time frame (12 to 15 years) and said, "I feel actually quite safe in that bet. That's a bet I will put money on."
Musk's prediction counters those of most market analysts - while they do see an uptick in the number of EVs on the road, they will claim nowhere near half the market share. Even Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn has a more conservative outlook, claiming ten percent of new vehicles will be electric by 2020.
For the time being, the first bet Musk needs to deliver on is the company's claim that it will sell more than 20,000 Model S units next year.
Jun 25, 2012
Elon, Tesla and Space X Save the World!-Amazon.com/Barnes and Noble.com Read the new novel by Mark Ellenbogen-God Shuffled His Feet!! Elon Musk, Tesla and Space X take an active role in saving the world. Humorous, well researched and a tribute to Musk's forward thinking and innovation. Have fun reading as the main characters test drive a Tesla Roadster and Space X develops a MagLev drive for land, see and space travel.
Sure, because Democrats will impose a tax (still called a penalty by the Obama administration) for anyone not buying an electric car, because evidently they can regulate interstate commerce even when you don't buy something.
Right now, gas is cheap relative to the rest of the world. But when prices spike, as we saw in 2008, hybrids were the choice and SUV sales came to a screeching halt. Next spike will generate an explosion in the sales of EVs.
The electric car isn't going to be that big of a market until it can be recharged in the same time as a gasoline powered car can be refueled. Period...end of story.
Electric cars may be the future but we better figure a way to double or triple pattern life in the next decade.
probably 80% of cars aren't ever driven far enough in a day to require more than nightly slow charging. The other 20%, no one is forcing you to give up your gas car. A family could keep 1 gas car for long trips, and any other cars switch to electric. Also, for a yearly roadtrip to Las Vegas or similar, you could always rent a car. Complaining about not charging fast enough is an apples and oranges comparison, you need to fill your gas tank fast, because you have to go to a specialized location, and take your turn waiting on it to fill up. It may be out of the way, and you have to wait right there until it is done. An electric car, you fill up while you are sleeping, without putting any extra mileage on to get there. There is no need for it to happen in 5 minutes.