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Why world broadband speeds declined at the end of 2011

By | June 5, 2012, 8:14 AM PDT

Akamai’s latest State of the Internet report paints an odd and troubling picture. Although the report was published a month ago, Benoit Felten, CEO of telecom consultancy firm Diffraction Analysis and former analyst at Yankee Group, more recently wrote a blog post pointing out a clear trend in Akamai’s cumulative statistics. Out of 49 countries studied, 36 netted average Internet speeds in the fourth quarter of 2011 that were equal to or less than speeds reported for the second quarter of 2011. And 21 countries had average speeds that declined in both the third and fourth quarter of last year.

The measurement is purportedly an assessment of wireline Internet connections, although that includes Wi-Fi networks driven off of wired connections. In other words, the decrease in speeds shouldn’t be attributable to greater mobile Internet usage at slower connection rates. Instead, Felten cautiously suggests that the actual Internet experience may be degrading in many countries.

There are a couple of theories on why this is happening. Felten rules out a methodology change on Akamai’s part (there was no notice of one, plus the trend takes place over multiple quarters), and also the idea that consumers are downgrading their own packages to save money (this would have been noted in operator financial reports). But commenters on his post speculate with other thoughts.

The decline may stem from a greater number of Wi-Fi requests loading down the wired infrastructure. Or it may come from Internet service providers (ISPs) throttling traffic during peak hours. One commenter specifically notes that her ISP throttles traffic from Akamai (a content delivery network provider) between six in the evening and midnight, forcing rates down to two megabits per second regardless of the speed the connection is capable of delivering.

Whatever the reason, it appears that in the short term our Internet infrastructure is not keeping up with demand.

As a contra-indicator, it’s nice to note that Verizon in the United States just announced a substantial bump in speeds for its residential FiOS subscribers. As the largest provider of fiber-to-the-home Internet service in the U.S., that’s something Verizon can afford to deliver. However (and this is a big however), Verizon has now shifted its focus from wireline investments to wireless. In fact, just yesterday Multichannel News reported that Verizon is looking to eliminate 1,700 jobs from its wireline business.

Felten warns that it’s too soon to draw firm conclusions from the Akamai data, but the numbers certainly aren’t promising, particularly for Europe, North America and the Middle East.

Hat Tip: Teresa Mastrangelo

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Mari Silbey

About Mari Silbey

Mari Silbey is a contributing editor for SmartPlanet.

Mari Silbey

Mari Silbey

Contributing Editor

Mari Silbey is an independent tech writer based in Washington, D.C. With a background in cable and telecom, she's a contributor to several trade publications, and part of the GigaOM analyst network. She also writes for the long-running digital media blog Zatz Not Funny, and has written for both corporate and association clients focused on broadband networks, mobile apps, and video delivery. She's a graduate of Duke University.

Follow her on Twitter.

Mari Silbey

Mari Silbey

Mari Silbey does not hold any investments in the technology companies she covers.

She writes for SmartPlanet and is not an employee of CBS.

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Only 2011?
I've been begging ATT here in Vero Beach,FL for the past 3 years to provide the internet DSL speeds and connectivity they advertise. It's more than being slow, every time it clouds up here (which every day in the summer) our connection goes intermittent. If it rains it's down for hours. I've had there contract service techs our multiple times and they tell me the same thing. ATT isn't maintaining or upgrading their ground lines and connection boxes and there is nothing they can do. I've written to my Congressmen - only to have him ask for more reams information about me and documentation of the problem - only to find out that one of his largest re-election contributors is... ATT.

In addition to the DSL problem, our electrical service has been going down more and more frequently - and quite often not weather related. Transformers go out and who knows what else. Bottom line is the local (and probably the entire country's) infrastructure is degrading rapidly now that it isn't being maintained as it has been in previous decades. I have to believe that this problem has it roots in a political system owned and regulated by the same utilities and corporations that fail to spend the money to provide adequately, and or upgrade their services - because our gov. won't legally force them to.
Posted by dduggerbiocepts
6th Jun
0 Votes
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Check the Fiberevolution Article Numbers Carefully
"21 out of 49 countries have average speeds that went down for these last two quarters" so the other 28 countries had speed same or increased. In other words, less than 42.8% had decreases speeds, but the other 57% either remained the same or increased. So, more than half have remained the same or increased. That is actually encouraging news.

"They are split as follows: Europe 14 of 23, APAC 2 of 10, Middle East 2 of 7, Latin America 2 of 7, North America 1 of 2." Europe still there are 9 countries that have the same or faster speeds, this is the highest percentage. APAC 2 of 10? Ahem, that means that 80% of those countries have same or faster speeds; amazing, 80%. Middle East 2 of 7, wow! Less than 1/3 of the countries had slower speeds, where the other 71% had the same or increased speeds. Same for South America. North America 1 of 2, that is only 50%.

You are looking at small scale time lines. But it looks promising that the majority of countries are either remaining the same or are faster. If you look over the entire graph, compare each with 2008 levels, and look at them now, every single one has increased speed. I can't see the down side.
Posted by ManoaHI
6th Jun
0 Votes
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Short-term versus long-term
ManoaHI- yes, only 21 countries went down in two consecutive quarters, but 36 had equal or lower average speeds at the end of the year compared to the mid-way point. Meaning they may have gone up one quarter, but then had to have gone down even further the other quarter.

In any case, yes, we're still talking about a short window of time, but it's still an interesting data point. And given that consumers don't get SLAs, or the opportunity to bill chargebacks, the fact that performance slipped should at least be acknowledged.
Posted by msilbey
6th Jun
0 Votes
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What about per person?
Then again looking carefully, there has been an explosion of smart phones and tablets, and that magnitude is in billions and don't discount laptops either. Yes, direct from phone to carriers are not counted, but every one of those can do WiFi. When you have a restaurant or store that offers free WiFi they are counted because they have broadband behind that. Sure, Barnes and Noble, McDonalds, Starbucks and the Apple Stores have had free WiFi for years, I see it much more in many more places, such as airports and subway stations and more telling is mom and pop stores/restaurants. Our own company had put in WiFi (free for members) in everyone of our 20 locations and 60 more for our buses and limousines inside the vehicle. We also got 70 iPads and 40 iPhones, so we added quite a bit to that. No one is going to use their precious expensive data connections if WiFi is free and available. So, there are many who went up from zero, an easy infinite increase. I know of many people who just got their very first smartphone. I know of many more tablet users. Sorry, but numbers have just increased, so even with higher speed switches and network increases, something has to give.

Why only 49 countries? Depending upon how you count them, the State Department of the United States recognizes 194 countries. That number from Akamai is just 1/4 of the world's nations. Is a mere 25% of the countries of the world a valid measure? Doesn't feel so "akamai" (Hawaiian for "smart") to me.
Posted by ManoaHI
6th Jun
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