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Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015

By | September 1, 2010, 4:40 AM PDT

Plug-in electric vehicles, which include autos with batteries only and hybrid plug-ins, will hit the 3.2 million unit mark by 2015, according to Pike Research.

Given that electric vehicles (EVs) are just about to land, Pike Research gives us a nice over/under number. Will 3.2 million units by 2015 be high or low in terms of EVs?

Pike Research makes the following points in its report:

  • Automakers will mass market EVs to drive units;
  • Consumers will see the benefits of EVs;
  • Smaller EVs—cars and SUVs—will dominate the market;
  • China will have the largest EV market with more than 880,000 autos sold by 2015, good for 27 percent of the global market;
  • The U.S. will have the second largest EV market with 841,000 vehicles sold by 2015.

The Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf will kick off the EV marketing to consumers. We’ll see how EV momentum builds.

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Larry Dignan

About Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is editor-in-chief of SmartPlanet.

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan

Editor-in-Chief

Larry Dignan is editor-in-chief of SmartPlanet and ZDNet. He is also editorial director of TechRepublic. Previously, he was an editor at eWeek, Baseline and CNET News. He has written for WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, New York Times and Financial Planning. He holds degrees from the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism and the University of Delaware. He is based in New York but resides in Pennsylvania.

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Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan
Larry Dignan does not hold any investments in the companies he covers.
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+1 Vote
+ -
Wait Till Cap and Trade Raises Electric Rates Through The roof
Once demorat job killing Cap and Trade hit, kiss electric cars bye, bey.
They will become far more expensive to drive than a gas guzzler getting 8 miles to the gallon.

And no... solar power is not even close enough to power electric cars AND trucks the way we need them to be powered.

Another case of government meddling with the marketplace, and ruining it.

The idea of electric vehicles, hydrogen powered vehicles is well worth pursuing. But it needs to be up to the marketplace to decide if people will buy it or not.

After all the government in the USA can not force people to buy something they don't want... ooops I forgot democare happy
Posted by Albee_Freeoneday
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
electric cars
Electric cars are expensive to own. If you've checked into the price of an electric car, you know they are not "low end". It's not so much the price of the car as it is the price of the batteries which they run on. If you've purchased batteries you know how the costs can add up quickly unlike purchasing a truck part, and the batteries used in electric cars are lithium-ion, which are expensive.
Posted by lackneramanda
Updated - 25th Jul
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
These cars are still not 100% green because we still have to plug into the power grid. I have a better Idea if only I can get my voice heard about my ideas and no power grid needed.
So again this is not 100% green technology with these new EVs.
I have a business plan that shows a plan without using the U.S. power grid. Contact me at kwtolley@hotmail.com. Mr. Tolley is a Post University Grad student in the MBA program (2010).
Posted by KW.Tolley, MBA-L
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
In Texas, for example, we drive long distances for work and leisure - even in a metro area - and sometimes sit in traffic. With so few "charging stations" available yet and battery life still so short (as far as I know), I don't see this as a viable option for me or many others here that get around much.
Posted by smrogerstx
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Hmmm: a "green" vehicle costs between $33,000 and $41,000. Seems a little TOO green for any wage-earner.

Better to use all that "green" on bicycles and public transportation and stick the rest in the bank.

Refresh my memory: If I get a 5 year loan at 8% APR on $41,000.00, how much is the total cost of the car?

I fail to see the reason to purchase ANY new vehicle: buy a "recycled" (previously used) vehicle and save the earth and your pocketbook.
Posted by wieloszynski@...
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Personally, I don't see a future for electric cars at all. My very favorite pass time is driving down a street with my head sticking out the driver side window listening to my Ford V-8 engine muffled by custom glass packs. Nothing will outrun my V-8 Ford.
Posted by ITOdeed
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Plug-In vehicles would have hit 32 million if only the government
hadn't pandered to the big 3. They are still turning out the same
crap, as a;ways. Could you imagine how far the electric car industry
would be ahead today? There are a slew of electric car (and electric
car related) companies that could have been producing better,and
more viable products now.
Posted by 16Tons
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
There is more to this than meets the eye. An electricity powered vehicle generates more pollution than an IC vehicle, even though the battery powered vehicle generates minimal pollution while running.

Here is why.

An IC vehicle emits pollution at a maximum government allowed SULEV or PZEV rate, often less than ambient.

The electric grid is a sophisticated business, generating electricity at an optimum combination of cost, pollution, and other factors.

When the electric vehicle plugs in to recharge its batteries, the electric grid has to add capacity to satisfy this additional demand. This additional capacity is AT BEST the most costly and/or most polluting, and the situation just gets worse as more batteries are plugged in to be recharged.

There is no way to finesse this issue.

Also, EVs do not pay gas taxes to support the maintenance of our road infrastructure.

The logical limit is if all vehicles are EVs. Then there would be no gas taxes to maintain the roads, and the electric utilities would generate additional pollution which would degrade the environment and increase the death rate. I do not think the average person is in favor of this.

There is a down loadable spreadsheet at http:// bit.ly/auHe4d that has more on this and allows the interested user to do some elementary modeling of the energy consumption of IC, HEV, PHEV, and EV vehicles.
Posted by msd1107
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
So much fun to listen to the commenters.

Electricity Cost. Let's see you are worried about the future cost of electricity skyrocketing? But your current form of energy (gasoline) is 5X the price of EV energy (electricity). Oops, guess you have things turned on their head. You are already using a fuel with a sky-high price.

Car Price: The average person pays $28,000 for a car. So tell me again why $28,000 for a first generation LEAF is too high.

Range Issue: Right, the LEAF has a 100 mile range limit that will be an issue for some. However the Chevy Volt has unlimited range, check in to it.

V8 exhaust: Here is a solution. Please go out and suck on the output of your glass-packs for a while and let the next generation of humans take over the planet.
Posted by JohnCBriggs
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Pollution: Every reputable agency that has looked into the matter shows that EVs are cleaner than gasoline cars with the grid as it is today. Going forward, as the grid gets cleaner the cars get cleaner.

Gas Taxes: Some people really cannot think two steps ahead. Let's see how could we pay for the roads? I know, tax on electricity. The best part we already have that. Did you really think the government was golng to have trouble taxing us. But I appreciate the hysteria about 100% of the cars being electric when they are currently 0%. Way ahead of the curve.
Posted by JohnCBriggs
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
@JohnCBriggs

"The average person pays $28,000 for a car?"

What planet do you live on? Where do you get your numbers?
Posted by ITOdeed
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Micromush

Numbers from FTC
http://www.ftc.gov/bcp/edu/pubs/consumer/autos/aut11.shtm

Also interesting, the average price of a 3 year old used car is $19,000.

I know, it is a reality check. Personally, I bought a new Corolla at $13,000 a few years ago. But if the average person is willing to spend $28,000 for a new car, might as well be an EV.
Posted by JohnCBriggs
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Micromush,
If you want a Ford V-8, here is what it will cost you. The cheapest 2011 Ford Mustang with a V-8

$29.645 MSRP

most expensive

$37,845 MSRP.

So enjoy the sound of that V-8, God knows you paid too much for it.
Posted by JohnCBriggs
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Awesome ! The New Nissan Leaf is taking orders today at $25,000 after the $7500 electric car tax rebate, and it has a new 440 volt charger option that will let you charge the car to 80% charge in 30 minutes. Otherwise you charge it in 8 hours (overnight on a 240 volt charger). If you put solar on your roof, you can charge the car yourself and the grid enables this because you help other people with power during the day, and the grid lets you charge the car at night for only $.07 per kwh. Its way cheaper and more efficient than gas cars. These electric cars and lithium ion batteries are going to get better and better, and as we get more charging stations, this is how the wave of the future, so get ready for it!
Posted by jjgirton
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Thank you for talking some sense JJGirton.

If Americans made more of their day to day decisions with an
awareness of how the cumulative effect of these decisions will
impact our children and great grand children, we would all be living
much differently.
Posted by peggycross
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
This would be wonderful and long over due! Hopefully the Electric Untility Co's won't over-charge us and become the OPEC of Electricity. This will change Industry as we've tried to do for the last 2 decades.
Watch "Who Killed the Electric Car" from Netflix.
Posted by shawnpaulboike
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Will they come w/a Obama sticker????
Posted by sdmtnbiker
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Some people cannot think about these things outside of a political context. Very strange.

EVs have bipartisan support because of the help address a number of issues including foreign trade, importing oil, air pollution, jobs, noise pollution, renewable energy powered transportation, etc. Not everyone likes EVs, but enough Democrats and Republicans see a benefit to keep it moving along.
Posted by JohnCBriggs
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
EV's "the help address a number of issues including foreign trade, importing oil,... jobs"

So does using the oil we already have in the USA, and drilling offshore.

"Electricity Cost. Let's see you are worried about the future cost of electricity skyrocketing? But your current form of energy (gasoline) is 5X the price of EV energy (electricity). Oops, guess you have things turned on their head. You are already using a fuel with a sky-high price."

And once demorat Cap and Trade hit, electricity rates will shoot higher than oil. Plus, the power grid is already experiencing regular brownouts because there is not enough electricity.

"If Americans made more of their day to day decisions with an
awareness of how the cumulative effect of these decisions will
impact our children and great grand children, we would all be living much differently."

Yeah, they would throw out the politicians who are stealing our children and grand, and great grandchildren's future buying votes by giving more and more benefits, and causing a tidal wave of debt.

Regarding electric vehicles, if you want one, by all means go out and buy one. Just don't expect your neighbor or anyone else to subsidize your purchase. And if you are getting money from "the government" realize it IS money taken form someone else by force and coercion and given to you.

Let the free market decide on the winners and losers. Contrary to what a lot of people believe... people are smart enough to make their own decisions.
Posted by Albee_Freeoneday
1st Sep 2010
-1 Votes
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
It can't happen fast enough.
Posted by Aboleyn
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Albee_Freeoneday

Firstly, there is a cap on the price of electricity, it is called solar power on your own roof. Figure $0.30/KWH or about a 50% premium over what we now pay. Additionally, electricity can be made from many resources, hydro, wind, solar, tidal, nuclear, etc. This has always helped stabilize the price.

Brown-outs? You have to understand more about the grid than you do. Brown-outs are the result of high AC loads in August. The rest of the time there is more than enough capacity. So in August, be sure to charge your EV at night.

Free market? Do you want the free market to control the military purchases? Do you want the free market to control if the car companies live or die? Do you want the free market to decide if oil shipping should be protected by the US military? Do you want the free market to decide how much pollution cars can emit? Should the free market decide how safe cars should be.
The government has a role to play in shaping the country's future and shape it they do. For better, for worse. They only time people complain is when it is in a direction they don't approve of.

Contrary to popular belief, people are not making their own decisions. The transportation sector is heavily regulated as are all energy sectors. You have the illusion of choice based on historical decisions by the government and industry that you have failed to realize have happened.
Posted by JohnCBriggs
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Finally, an answer that is using some imagination! Yes, buy your own solar panel to charge your vehicle or one of the other sources mentioned by John C Briggs. People don't recognize that we are going to have less and less fuel available in the future. The sooner we can support these new green technologies, the greener they will become, the more affordable they will be, and the better infrastructure there will be. Gasoline is a way of the past because the world is running out of oil. China can move forward on things because they are a communist country and they make decisions for the people. It's different in the U.S., but I hope enough people will adopt new technology to keep it moving forward. Otherwise, we'll all have to buy Chinese cars!
Posted by Tamalaine
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
First off...apples to apples people! Stop quoting the Leaf's post rebate price...The Leaf in the United States will sell for $32,780 for the base model or for an additional $1000, you can get the SL Trim model.

But you aren't done yet...if you want the faster 220-volt charger, that's going to cost you another $2,200...but that's just to purchase the charger. Installation is another cost...if you don't have a 220-volt line available where you are going to charge the car, you should consider that the cost to install this will more than likely eat up your rebate! And this charger will only be able to charge your LEAF car in 8 hours.
And while today, the LEAF will be cheaper to run than an IC vehicle, that honor will not last very long when the various governments start seeing revenue drop due to less gasoline tax income...
And with the big problem Honda is having on their batteries prematurely dying...and that is on a hybrid vehicle, expect to see this vehicle's batteries to last 3-5 years.. While replacement under warranty may be available, I'm sure that Nissan will not eat the disposal charge to get rid of the bad battery!
Posted by tech_ed@...
1st Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
Wow, all this talk by people who do not drive all-electric vehicles. I do and have been for three years. My car costs me .02 a mile to run. It is charged by green, non-salmon-stream-harming hydro power. The base price of my Zenn was $14,000. Unfortunately, this particular make is no longer available but others very similar are out there and available right now. Just do a search on the web for more info.

One woman who owns a Zenn, installed solar panels at her house to charge her car and has ended up powering her whole house with them, even having enough energy left over to sell it back to the local utility. And that is in the not-always-so-sunny Pacific Northwest.

I am lucky that I live in a place in which the main road from one end to the other is only 14 miles long and has a maximum speed limit of 45 mph, making this town and many other neighborhoods across the world ideal for this type of car.

The time is yesterday for changing our habits and doing all we can now while waiting for mainstream industries to start producing the items it takes to create the needed change.

Further, for just a few thousand dollars, any gas- or diesel-powered vehicle can be fairly easily converted to electric. Kits are readily available. A car and a truck here in my town were converted during a two-month-long class.
Posted by meganrp
2nd Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
I wonder if the people on the east coast about to loose their power for days, maybe weeks due to hurricane Earl want an EV? Woops, Solar won't help either. There are several alternative fuel sources available to us. It will take using them all to ween the U.S. off the OPEC oil teet. Embrace and utilize them all as needed. Face it, EV won't work for everyone. And the coal generated power plants are NOT clean. And coal will never go away. EV won't be the only choice. Choose wisely when making your next vehicle purchasing choice. Consider all types of alternative fuel sources. Don't be swayed by others.
Posted by rusty_godfrey@...
2nd Sep 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Plug-in electric vehicles to hit 3.2 million by 2015
3/2 mill by 2015? Dreamer!
Posted by GISBob
2nd Sep 2010
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