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Has ‘Climategate’ forced businesses to reconsider human-caused global warming?

By | November 24, 2009, 8:44 AM PST

Has ‘Climategate’ forced businesses to reconsider the validity of the theory of anthropogenic, or human-caused, global warming?

Less than a week ago, hackers broke into the database of the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in Norwich, U.K. and published 1079 emails and 72 documents on the Internet, some authored by prominent American and British climate researchers.

That would normally just be a security story if not for what was written in some of the e-mails, which suggest that some of the scientists at the center colluded to exaggerate and manipulate global warming data to support the notion that human activity is causing, at least in part, global warming and climate change.

News of the scandal, dubbed ‘Climategate,’ quickly raced around the world, rekindling heated debates about the validity of the view that humans play an active part in exacerbating global warming.

Contentious lines in the e-mails included the following:

“I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline.”

“The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.”

“Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise. He’s not in at the moment – minor family crisis. Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don’t have his new email address. We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.”

“Next time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I’ll be tempted to beat the crap out of him. Very tempted.”

“……Phil and I have recently submitted a paper using about a dozen NH records that fit this category, and many of which are available nearly 2K back–I think that trying to adopt a timeframe of 2K, rather than the usual 1K, addresses a good earlier point that Peck made w/ regard to the memo, that it would be nice to try to “contain” the putative “MWP”, even if we don’t yet have a hemispheric mean reconstruction available that far back….”

For sure, these scientists are foremost working people, and it’s expected that they have occasionally derisive backroom banter about their findings, peers and colleagues just like any other folks.

But the content in question is whether the scientists actively suppressed data that didn’t match their view that humans play a part in global warming — and whether they tried covering their tracks in the process.

Another example:

“This was the danger of always criticising the skeptics for not publishing in the “peer-reviewed literature”. Obviously, they found a solution to that–take over a journal! So what do we do about this? I think we have to stop considering “Climate Research” as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal. Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal. We would also need to consider what we tell or request of our more reasonable colleagues who currently sit on the editorial board…What do others think?”

“I will be emailing the journal to tell them I’m having nothing more to do with it until they rid themselves of this troublesome editor.”“It results from this journal having a number of editors. The responsible one for this is a well-known skeptic in NZ. He has let a few papers through by Michaels and Gray in the past. I’ve had words with Hans von Storch about this, but got nowhere. Another thing to discuss in Nice !”

Are the scientists pursuing knowledge, or simply “cherry-picking” data to support an argument they’ve already accepted? That’s really what’s at stake here, and the exposé has fanned the flames of the debate and every “green” venture that promises less energy use in the name of a healthier planet.

It’s also no surprise that the security breach occurred in the run up to the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark. The COP15 conference is where the world’s leaders, including the United States’ President Barack Obama, are expected to execute a treaty agreeing to hard emissions targets and other specifics.

Expectations for the conference have already been lowered, but the possibility that data was tampered with casts a shadow on international efforts to reduce humanity’s collective footprint.

At issue were sets of data employed in two studies: One data set showed long-term temperature effects on tree rings. The other consisted of thermometer readings for the past 100 years.

Through the last century, both the tree rings and thermometers show a consistent rise in temperature until 1960. At that point, some tree rings, for unknown reasons stop showing that rise.

In contrast, the thermometers continue to show the rise until the present.

(The reliability of the tree-ring data was called into question years ago and is no longer used to track temperature fluctuations, scientists say.)

Opponents of the theory of anthropogenic global warming say the e-mails are a smoking gun for research about the topic.

Supporters say the e-mails reveal researchers in poor form, but hardly undercut the body of research on global warming.

What do you think?

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Andrew Nusca

About Andrew Nusca

Andrew Nusca is editor of SmartPlanet.

Andrew Nusca

Andrew Nusca

Editor

Andrew Nusca is editor of SmartPlanet and an associate editor for ZDNet. Previously, he worked at Money, Men's Vogue and Popular Mechanics magazines. He holds degrees from the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism and New York University. He based in New York but resides in Philadelphia.

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Andrew Nusca

Andrew Nusca
Andrew Nusca does not hold any investments in the companies he covers.
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0 Votes
+ -
True
I have been reading loads of those emails and there is no context that
would deny the fact that those scientists, the main heads of the IPCC,
where colluding to exclude dissident studies and dominate the peer-
review community.

Even worse is the source code, that can't lie that shows clearly the
adjustments done and the lack of reliable data of the CRU.

Check this out:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/22/cru-emails-may-be-open-to-
interpretation-but-commented-code-by-the-programmer-tells-the-real-
story/
Posted by echofloripa
24th Nov 2009
0 Votes
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"Fudge Factor"
Yes, it's game over for "global warming".

Hey, check it out: "hide the decline" is surpassed by "fudge factor". Fudge factor is computer program code which multiplies late 20th century values to create hockey sticks like the above graph. Check out the fudge factor here:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/11/crus_source_code_climategate_r.html

If Rockefeller had had his way with "Internet 2" stuff like this could never get out. We must protect this free speech tool.
Posted by Fudge Factor
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
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If this has happened in corporate America...
...the media would have this is story #1 24/7. There would be
congressional hearings with CEOs getting grilled by grandstanding
politicians. There is legally definable fraud and conspiracy here,
and the AG would be announcing criminal charges. People would be
going to jail, and the perpetrators would become the progressive's
icons of greed and corruption for the next generation like Watergate
and Enron.

And right or wrong, the hackers would be hailed as heroes who saved
the world from corporate greed, corruption and tyranny.

Alas, none of that will happen.

At best, the Copenhagen conference will be a muted affair with
minimal media coverage. Business will continue to promote "green" as
long as politicians offer subsidies and marketers perceive that
consumers are responsive to it. But since so many politicians and
people in the scientific community have tied their fortunes
(politically, financially, and professional credibility-wise) to AGW,
I wouldn't expect it to disappear overnight. As they see it, we no
longer need to address AGW for the planet's sake, but for their sake,
which was the point all along.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
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RE: Has 'Climategate' forced businesses to reconsider human-caused global w
It does, indeed, look like bad science. But, I would consider the
rationale in their admittedly ham-fisted approach. They are not
trying to save their jobs, for example. There seems to be an
underlying current of frustration with the science itself, and a
disbelief in the resultant data. Why would any scientist worth their
beakers push so hard against the data unless they didn't trust it in
their gut?

Seems to a lot of rational folk that are convinced human activity
certainly is a contributing factor. And, even beyond the climate
change itself, clean practices are clearly better for our health,
and the health of the plants and animals around us. We have oceans
full of garbage, streams and rivers full of raw sewage, and air not
fit to breathe.

If, as a part of an overall more responsible approach, a reduction
in pollution-creating activities helps to slow down something that
is occurring naturally - even incrementally, and it has clear
additional benefit, where's the problem, ultimately? Besides - and
this might be the most important aspect of this problem - large
climate swings have proven to take place over long periods of time,
and within those longer time periods smaller swings occur. Our
increasing appetite for instant gratification, of which the
mainstream press is the poster child, simply doesn't allow for
patience and thoughtfulness.

These scientists just need to learn how to properly handle news they
are not comfortable with. Let's look at this PR problem 25 years
from now and see if we need to recast the context.
Posted by Lucky2BHere
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
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RE: Has 'Climategate' forced businesses to reconsider human-caused global warming?
Let's do the math: CO2 is 3.42% of all greenhouse gases. Man-made CO2 is 3.2% of all CO2. 0.0342 * 0.032 = 0.1% So, if all the planet went 100% nuclear + solar power _tomorrow_, greenhousing drops by 1/10 of one percent. Should CO2 shedding stop 100%, another greenhouse gas would replace it; dihydrogen monoxide, which we *cannot* control (it absorbs 20X more IR in the same spectrum). Let's not cripple our economy w/ cap+trade before we understand what's really going on!
Posted by johnbartley
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
+ -
Congratulations, guys: you've been used!
Larry, Andrew,
I'd be ashamed if I were you guys, just passing cherry picked emails out of context as evidence of some kind of pro-global warming kaballah conspiracy--give me a few years of your own email archives and I bet I could prove you guys were doing whatever I wanted to say you were doing! Come on now: look at those examples that were cherry picked--
hiding declines in the data--what data are they talking about? Temps collected from stations? Temps collected from tree ring correlations that have proven to not be accurate after 1960 and therefore need to be adjusted accordingly? Who knows from what is included here?

Complaining about how the data must not be accurate: have you ever thought that in order to get an accurate measurement of global temps, you have to get the right MIX of oceanic and land-based data?

Deleting emails: gee, could there be legitimate reasons to delete mail besides some nefarious cover-up??? Guess not.

Being concerned about skeptics taking over a climate journal? Well, I'm from Kansas and I can tell you what happens when creationists take over State Boards of Education.

I could go on, but I daresay that you guys need to take a more critical stance on such "bombshells" that are released right before the Copenhagen summit. Even if these supposedly devastating emails are shown to be completely benign after closer analysis, the damage will be done to the credibility and political consensus of the climate science community at a time that is inconscionable. You've been used, guys!
Posted by klassman6
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
+ -
The man made global warming hoax...
is the most successfull political campaign ever created.

I don't argue about the need to reduce carbon emissions. Not based
on scientific evidence, but merely on the quality that we should
what we can to limit our unnatural impact on the planet. It's not
about global warming, its about the ethics of thrift.

The data just does not compute from a logical standpoint. We have volcanoes, decaying plant matter on land and the oceans, forest
fires, 65 million years ago an asteroid wiped out nearly ALL life on
earth! And the earth recovered. And we think a few hundred years of
burning coal and petroleum products is going to destabilize the
earth? How many people don't grasp the contrast there?!

Then you go into data on the absorption/reflection spectrum's of CO2
and other "greenhouse" gases and the energy levels of those spectrum's and you start feeling a little... ho-hum about the whole
thing.

It doesn't help to have idiots like Al Gore swingin bat for ya,
putting out "documentaries" that make Micheal Moore jealous. Using
"science" that makes most pro-man-made-global-warming climatologists cringe.

And people flock to it with the venom and gnashing of teeth
previously reserved for tyrannical religious orders not seen for
centuries. This opinion that you have to have the same opinion,
cause somehow a theory was decided by unannounced vote that it is
now fact and if you don't agree you retarded and its ok to use
politically incorrect terms such as retarded cause thats how bad NOT
joining the religious order of global warming evangelicals is.
Posted by shadfurman
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
+ -
Andrew, Larry, thanks for reporting on this issue.
True or not, a previous commenter's assertion that we should sensor any
kind of media for the gain of political agenda is abhorable. I actually
expected more hateful comments, and I'm glad there aren't that many, at
least not yet, and I'm sure you possibly expected such also. Thanks for
reporting it anyway. I thought it was an unbiased report on the event.
Posted by shadfurman
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
+ -
Re: Andrew, Larry, thanks for reporting on this issue
Who said censor? I'm saying that folks need to use a critical eye before blindly forwarding biased, cherry picked exerpts from a leak of years of emails that are not the complete picture of what is called science. The excerpts do not represent a clear picture of what has gone into the scienctific process of climatology any more than two ministers slingig bible quotes back and forth.

Furthermore, as I said, the timing leaves no room for a closer examination of the process before the Copenhagen meetings, and is clearly designed to subvert the process there.
Posted by klassman6
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
+ -
klassman, have you actually read any of the messages?
The beauty of having access to over 100 megabytes of messages is that
we actually get to read them in context, and with a
critical eye".

But thanks for playing.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
+ -
And thanks to Larry and Andrew for daring to bring up the topic
After Dana Blankenhorn more or less lost it on this topic last week in
a blog about "Denialism", I suggested that we'd never see any forums
regarding "incorrect" views regarding AGW on Smartplanet. Thanks for
proving me wrong.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
+ -
John,
Yes, I have, which is exactly why I said what I said: you can make whatever your point you would like to make with this stuff. This is NOT the science, it is a bunch of archived, out of context stuff ABOUT the science. The models can be examined in detail without these emails and judged on its own merits, and it has--just ask the thousands of climate scientists who have been involved.

We're not talking about static data sets, static models or static assumptions in any of this. For instance, the models are run a bunch of different times, each time changing assumptions to make sure of the model's robustness. Go to your National Weather Service website, click on the weather discussion, and you'll see that they run various models to predict the weather, some which "handle" the data better than others, and the forecast is based on a blend or "best guess" of the models, which are updated and adjusted as the new data comes in.

The climate predictions are the same way. The bottom line is that if you take out the effects of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions, there's no way you can make the models come even close to what the data is showing.

And this is no more controversial in the climate science community than talking about evolution in the biological science community. It is not controversial in the Dept. of Defense either, which has placed AGW as the #1 security threat to our country's future. All this hoopla against these hard truths remind me of tobacco lawyers, who successfully staved off the now-obvious connection between smoking and cancer. They were paid to say that--who's paying the deniers? Yup, you got it: big oil, coal, and the like.

Wake up, folks.
Posted by klassman6
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
+ -
No, the bottom line is...
...that their models have not been able to predict what the weather
has actually been doing for the last 11 years, and privately, they
admit it.

When I was in school, when your models did not conform to your
results, it meant that something is wrong with your model, or your
understanding of the model.

Today, it appears that what they do is change the data, hide the
inner workings of their models from outside scrutiny, and stack the
peer review process with complicit cronies.

But thanks for playing.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
+ -
RE: Has 'Climategate' forced businesses to reconsider human-caused global w
shadfurman - yes, the Earth generally recovers, one way or another,
from all kinds of cataclysms and disasters.

The *Earth* recovers.

As in the planet itself, as a whole.

But species - millions and millions of them - can and do get blown
into oblivion. As you yourself point out, one asteroid 65 million
years ago nearly wiped out all life on Earth.

The planet will continue to exist, with or without us. But the
global warming/climate change situation isn't about stopping the
destruction of the planet - it's about keeping *our species* from
going extinct. It's about keeping the planet from becoming
uninhabitable *for us*.

One asteroid took a few minutes to wreck the whole biosphere
millions of years ago. Things can get incredibly bad amazingly
quickly. You roll your eyes at the thought that "a few hundred
years of burning coal and petroleum products is going to destabilize
the Earth" - well, yes. Yes it is. It's doing that and will
continue to do that. We're not talking about a little bit of
burning - we're talking about burning millions and millions and
millions of tons of coal and oil, dumping vast amounts of greenhouse
gasses into the atmosphere. Continuously. Yes, that's having an
impact. No, it doesn't need to take a long time for that impact to
be disastrous. Disastrous to the point of making the planet unable
to sustain human life.

So, yes, the planet will be fine and will still be here millions of
years from now. That's not the issue.

The issue is - will we?
Posted by reallyordinary
25th Nov 2009
0 Votes
+ -
Bad Science
These scientists are so desperate to believe in their cause that they must of been lying to themselves ! opposing global warming has become politically incorrect.

it is time for more investigation and the jailing of these crooks. Al Gore is laughing all the way to the bank.

I don't appreciate being lied to. I have already written to my legislators. The house of cards is crumbling.....
Posted by pizzaman7
3rd Dec 2009
0 Votes
+ -
I don't know if the data is flawed or not...
...but the emails, combined with the source code, call into question
everything that they were trying to accomplish. Anyone who says
otherwise needs to stop drinking the kool-aid.

New models need to be made. Truly unbiased members of the
scientific community need to run said models. Journals need to
accept papers from those for AND against man-made global warming.

The global-warming scaremongers may be right. However, they no
longer have any reliable data to support them. THEY should be the
ones calling for these, not those who are skeptical.

I also find it funny that East Anglia's global warming scientists -
obviously liberals - utilized the exact same methods for their
"research," - manipulating data, hiding source code from FIA
requests and shooting down those who disagree with them - that
liberals have accused conservatives of doing throughout the Bush
administration, but that's a whole 'nother can of worms.
Posted by jedidethfreak
8th Dec 2009
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