By Andrew Nusca
Posting in Energy
Despite auto emissions efficiency gains in the U.S., Europe and Japan, growth in markets in Brazil, Russia, China and India will entirely overwhelm those green savings.
Here's a sobering fact: despite all the efficiency gains made by the auto industry in mature markets such as the United States and western Europe, the incredible growth of vehicular transport in Brazil, Russia, China and India will entirely overwhelm those savings.
That's according to a new report by J.D. Power and Associates, which notes that the share of global light-vehicle sales in emerging markets has surpassed share from economically mature areas.
Leading the charge? You guessed it: China.
"Mature markets like the United States, Western Europe and Japan are only expected to return to pre-recessionary sales levels by 2015," said J.D. Power automotive SVP John Humphrey in a statement. "During that period, they will be overshadowed by exponential growth in China, India, Brazil and Russia."
- In 2010, light-vehicle sales in emerging markets represented 51 percent of global sales.
- Share of emerging markets is expected to increase steadily, to 60 percent in 2015.
- Sales in China in 2015 are projected to total 29 million units. (The U.S. follows, with only 16.5 million units.)
- Global light-vehicle sales are expected to increase from 77 million units in 2011 to 103 million units in 2015.
- By 2020, global sales are projected to total 125 million units.
- Of this total, the BRIC nations -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- are expected to account for 57.7 million light vehicle sales, or 46 percent of the global total.
It took about 95 years for the world to see 500 million passenger vehicles in operation. (It was achieved in 2010.) With BRIC countries coming online in a big way, J.D. Power predicts that it will take just 20 years to do it again, surpassing one billion vehicles on the road.
But the real story is how that will impact environmental gains by the auto industry. This globalization and growth will be "a major obstacle thwarting efforts" to reduce overall emissions from internal combustion engine vehicles, J.D. Power says.
Plus, emerging markets won't necessarily subscribe to the latest efficiencies, meaning the cars on the road from their economic growth will likely not be the Chevy Volts and Nissan Leafs of the world -- nevermind that those hybrid- or all-electric vehicles are more expensive ($11,000 more on average), an unsustainable proposition (financially speaking) for consumers in emerging markets.
It's a tough pill to swallow for greenies: carbon emissions and air quality will get worse before it gets better.
But it's a lesson for the world's largest automakers, who have a hand in dispersing efficiency gains across continents.
Can automakers pursue revenues overseas without stamping out their sustainability initiatives at home? Or will money talk louder?
Apr 19, 2011
The graph is well displaying the emerging and mature vehicle markets trend and as I perceived emerging markets are growing faster, I like your blog. http://www.tyre-shopper.co.uk/branches/chester-road
There are active vocanoes under the sea as well as above ground. The heating of the oceans must be effected by the volcanic activity. Carbon monoxide has a greenhouse effect 20X that of Co2. I don't think that our human activity is more than a drop in the bucket by comparison.
Even Dana Blakenhorn resisted the urge to do that. Perhaps, I was a bit too sarcastic, so I will try again: Critics of they Kyoto protocols were quick to point out that in the long run, the whole document was pointless since the emerging world (mainly India and China) were for the most part exempt from growth in emissions. These critics were either pooh-poohed or ignored altogether. Now, we get stories like this. So, the critics of Kyoto were correct? The west that has been spending decades investing in efficiency will be made to suffer while China & India will get to emit as much as they like. Who knew?
Solar power-----wind, tide and current--thermal as well. I live in Cambodia. We buy power from Vietnam---most produced by very dirty coal, yet it is 30 degrees and the sun is shining. Are there any solar panels in sight to power the AC---nope!!!!! Green cars--yes, but how to charge the batteries? And what to do with discharged batteries. My Indian collegue is so excited to buy her FIRST car, here, today. Argh!!! Fund alternate energy everywhere. Ban new coal and oil exploration and production and get on with it---politicians need to have some spine---and I'll fund the campaign of any who do.
D'oh. Who is smarter now? Since the 70's American industry increased energy efficiency to the point that we now use less than half the oil to generate an even higher GDP. Free market competitiveness drove it not government regulations. But now we self flagellate ourselves with so many regulations,fees, fines, taxes and legal costs that we have offset our competitive efficiency edge. So as we burden a highly efficient clean American industry with regulations, BRIC turns their's loose. They can use twice as much energy to produce and ship their goods, and still beat our price. And don't forget the basic rule - the buyer of the biggest volume gets the best price. Applies to oil too. We deserve what our political naivete and stupidity have wrought.
It just goes to show that no matter what you try to do to conserve, save, preserve, it doesn't even equal a drop in the bucket of everyone else's waste! All these people wanting to cut pollution are overshadowed by a single super-tanker crossing the pacific ocean....All these water conservers are overshadowed by the fact that every conserved is evaporated 100 times by every waterpark in the united states. Every tree you save in the USA is cut down by the thousands in Russia and brazil. So it doesn't matter what you do. Someone else is doing the exact opposite at 100-1000 times greater than you! The only way you can win is if each and every one of the people spouting conservation were to recruit another 1000 people...only then would headway be made...but then, the consumers would be consuming at 10,000-100,000 times the conservers!
Thanks for presenting this. It is sobering, even depressing. JD Powers and others have also presented data showing that electric vehicle growth will likely be correspondingly slow - http://www.evsroll.com/Future_Electric_Car.html. Hopefully battery technology will outpace gasoline engine growth.