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Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?

By | December 8, 2009, 5:05 AM PST

For the last few weeks, I’ve been trying to cut through the flap over leaked e-mail messages and program files from the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit. After perusing various Climategate accounts and global warming reports it’s clear that most of what you get is rambling about how denialists stink and climate change supporters are delusional. In between, there’s a lifetime supply of politics.

It’s all so disappointing. How does the average bear sort through this?

Going through this mess there are a few conclusions that seem apparent:

  • The leaked emails from East Anglia are enough to raise questions about the data analysis and the scientific process.
  • Climategate isn’t enough by itself to blow apart the entire global warming argument.
  • But you can’t be intellectually honest and pretend that the science isn’t at least somewhat tainted.
  • There are so many institutions wrapped around the global warming argument that they have covered their ears to dissent. CBS News’ Declan McCullagh has the account of the American Physical Society, a professional association of physicists that has prominent members calling for a time out. APS officials won’t budge.
  • The sides are so polarized that the average observer is likely to tune out the entire debate (a stretch considering the lack of peer review and abundance of shouting).

So now what? Climate change needs a do-over on many fronts. First, the science has to be scrubbed. There’s enough doubt here to give folks serious reservations about plunging headfirst into big legislation or economic overhauls in a recession in the name of global warming. Do the investigations. Put the data out there for the world to see. And listen to folks such as William Happer, a physicist who runs the Happer Lab at Princeton University; Hal Lewis, a professor emeritus of physics at the University of California, Santa Barbara; and Robert Austin, another Princeton physics professor and head of a biophysics research group, who urge an examination of the data to filter out what’s tainted.

Lewis sums it up for what I believe is the silent majority of folks who land in the middle of this climate change scrum.

The tragedy is that the serious questions are quantitative, and it’s easy to fool people with slogans. If you say that the Earth is warming you are telling the truth, but not the whole truth, and if you say it is due to the burning of fossil fuels you are on thin ice. If you say that the Earth is warming and therefore catastrophe lies ahead, you are pulling an ordinary bait and switch scam. If you are a demagogue, of course, these distinctions don’t bother you — you have little interest in that quaint concept called truth.

The problem is getting the answers on these serious questions qualifies as largely impossible. Why? Politics. It’s not hard to find loud guys yelling “denialist” on one side and the other side features people revving up their Hummers and circa 1950 coal plants. Most of us believe in climate change and protecting the environment, but also take the economic risk and rewards into account.

Meanwhile, this back-and-forth occurs with the U.N. Copenhagen powwow going on in the background. The carbon dioxide produced by all the talking, private jets and limos may warm up the earth a few degrees.

For me, the climate change argument needs the following:

  • A data analysis do-over or at least an effort to ferret out compromised information.
  • Better analytics. With this scrubbed data let’s provide the masses with an analytics app hosted in the cloud that shows the data, assumptions made, how you can change outcomes and the probabilities of climate disasters (preferably riding shotgun with economic outcomes). Don’t tell us disaster looms with a Photoshopped slide. Show us and give us the tools to see it ourselves.
  • A different story: Is the goal to leave the environment as you found it or to install a bunch of regulations and controls ahead of some cataclysmic event that may or may not happen in 20 years? Guess which one is easier to sell.
  • An analysis of economic risk.
  • A political free zone. If climate change is really a political movement then the receptive audience is greatly diminished.

My advice for you is to go through this stuff on your own and come up with conclusions. A few links for your journey (if you have more please add them in the comments):

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Larry Dignan

About Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan is the editor-in-chief of SmartPlanet.

Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan

Editor-in-Chief

Larry Dignan is editor-in-chief of SmartPlanet and ZDNet. He is also editorial director of TechRepublic. Previously, he was an editor at eWeek, Baseline and CNET News. He has written for WallStreetWeek.com, Inter@ctive Week, New York Times and Financial Planning. He holds degrees from the Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism and the University of Delaware. He is based in New York but resides in Pennsylvania.

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Larry Dignan

Larry Dignan
Larry Dignan does not hold any investments in the companies he covers.
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0 Votes
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
This is a good article. As a programmer, the part I found so appalling was the climate modeling software source code. For example:

http://oneutah.org/2009/11/28/climategate-source-code-more-damning-than-emails/

and

http://oneutah.org/2009/11/28/climategate-source-code-more-damning-than-emails/

I think the people responsible should be prosecuted for fraud.
Posted by jtdavies
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
Definitely YES!

This is another mellenium bug without an expiry date.

Last week we had a report of an city in Irelend having the worst floods in 800 years. How many cars, jet aircrft, etc., caused the floods 800 years ago?

A few hundred years ago, a town which was part of England was covered by the North Sea and is now miles off shore. Was this part of modern global warming as well?

Mike
Posted by michael.w.newman@...
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
Kudos for having the courage to speak out honestly and moderately about this topic. I am a fiscally conservative long-term Republican who had begun to grudgingly accept the science behind Global Climate Change as sound - and this revelation sets my trust in the scientific community - in *general* - back at least a decade. I'm not a Creationist - but the scientific community has seriously compromised their integrity by allowing this to take place. They should hold the members of their community responsible as severely accountable as possible.
Posted by dcolbert@...
8th Dec 2009
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ClimateGate is entirely about politics...
...and its corrupting effects on science. It does not close the door on theories regarding human impact upon the environment, nor should it. What it does do is make life much more difficult for those who wish to make the case that CO2 is the evil that they've been screaming that it is for the last 15 years or so. Real "scientists" should be appalled at what has transpired and how the peer review process got so subverted.

This is not a bad thing. If the advocates of Anthropogenic Global Warming wish to make their case, now they are going to have to do it with "honest" science, which will mean building new databases and codecs that are open to everybody. Not only do they need a "reset", but they're going to have to go over the top in honest methodology and transparency if they expect to ever be taken seriously anywhere outside of Al Gore & Leo Di Caprio's social circles. The "We know what we're doing; just trust us" argument isn't going to fly anymore.

Thanks guys for presenting balanced blogs on this topic. It's refreshing compared to some of the unglued nonsense that some of your SmartPlanet compatriots (http://www.smartplanet.com/technology/blog/thinking-tech/the-war-against-oil-is-finally-engaged/2328/?tag=content;col1) have been posting.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
I have three comments:

1. Look at the ice core temperature data and ice
thickness/ice loss data which is not interpreted from any
fancy software, it is in a spread sheet.

2. The earth is a finite body with environmental systems
that have a finite ability to process human activity.

3. Where is the hard science that climate change is not
happening?
Posted by cfaranetta
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
"First, the science has to be scrubbed." What an astonishing statement! You say you've been digging deep, but it doesn't appear so, to me anyway, based on your article. The summary here (http://climatechange.foreignpolicyblogs.com/2009/12/06/temperature-101/) of the state of the science - the real science, by the way, not the pseudoscience that the denialists would have you swallow - might help create a little better perspective for you. Do you honestly think that the National Academies of Science of over a dozen major countries, the IPCC, science agencies from the UK and US, and thousands of researchers all over the world, compiling this record over decades, are all just wrong? That doesn't strike me a particularly supportable view.
Posted by Bill Hewitt
8th Dec 2009
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Excellent article!
Politics has so poisoned the atmosphere that unless the restart button is pushed, the truth will never come out. And that's what is needed.

And to really understand politics, all you have to do is realize it is a compound word:

Poli (greek) = many
tics = tiny, parasitic, disease spreading insects
Posted by LarryPTL
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
The real shame is that all 'Science' took a hit ... these zealots were willing to throw everyone under the bus to get their way. I agree with middle of the road point of view, but I think that some price needs to be paid for alleged dry lab results. We can not afford future problems that undermine scientific research in the future. I believe that I larger consensus requires more attention be paid to skeptics. Group mentality is a strong force and often leads to large mistakes.
Posted by mashford@...
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
"3. Where is the hard science that climate change is not happening?"

Where is the hard science that this is not cyclical and that this is caused by man?

Are we supposed to put a stangle hold on our economy to try and fix something that we may or may not have any control over?
Posted by BB9193
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Where is the hard science that climate change is not happening.
Nobody is arguing about whether or not climate change is happening. The climate has always been changing and always will. The question that has not been resolved is how much impact are human activities having on that change and what, if anything, should we do about this.
Posted by GrumpyOldMan
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
Human activity has been around for centuries. The Earth warms and the earth cools. Centuries before Al Gore released his Inconvenient Fib, Greenland was green. And so it stayed and was settled by Vikings for generations until global cooling came along. Leif Ericsson even made it to Newfoundland. His shallow draft boats, perfect for sailing and rowing up rivers to conquer villages, wouldn't have stood a chance against a baby iceberg.

England had to give up the wines that the Romans cultivated while our globe cooled, switching from grapes to colder weather grains and learning to take comfort with beer, whisky and ales.

In 1974, the National Science Board announced: "During the last 20 to 30 years, world temperature has fallen, irregularly at first but more sharply over the last decade. Judging from the record of the past interglacial ages, the present time of high temperatures should be drawing to an end leading into the next ice age."

In 1975 our government pushed "the coming ice age."

It's the job of elected officials to whip up panic. They then get re-elected. Their supporters fall in line. You can't blame these scientists for sucking up to the fed's mantra du jour. Scientists live off grants. Threats work. Politicization of science never works.

Forbes has a good Article: http://www.forbes.com/2009/12/03/climate-science-gore-intelligent-technology-sutton.html?partner=email
Posted by franks@...
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
Good Article.

The earth is millions of years old, and if I remember correctly our data only goes back about 150 years.

The East Anglia study was supposed to normalize the data (adjusting for urban sprawl, and other changes to environment where temps are measured). Now that work is suspect, and the initial data was destroyed ??? Good job guys.

Is Global Warming happening? Maybe.

Is it caused by man? Maybe, or maybe we're still coming out of the last ice age and this is part of the earth's natural cycle.

Can we stop it? Probably not. We might be able to slow it down, but how do we know that what we do will not have unintended consequences that are far worse than the temperature rising?

If CO2 is really such a problem, why doesn't everybody just plant a tree or two?

In the end, the science needs to be rock solid and undisputable. If it's not, how can we justify the expense of trying to stop it?
Posted by cmfox1867@...
8th Dec 2009
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Good Article
The data needs to be re-examined and the tainted data removed. This should be done in as politically free as possible. Someone said that the scientific method works by removing false ideas; example in this case that global warming is caused by fairies and other magical creatures would be considered false.

Earth is a very large and mostly closed system. There are subsystems that effect other subsystems and there are positive and negative feedback to the subsystems. Certain changes can be very small, but if they are accumulative then the effect increases over time.

We need just the hard information without the hysteria. We also need to know what we can do about changes; can we slow the changes or do we need to adapt. Humans are unique in being able to adapt the environment to our needs rather than adapt to the environment.

It is like a house, we take measures to prevent fires and if a fire happens we have measures to deal with the consequences. We should take steps to reduce the risks and have plans to deal with consequences if they happen. This includes global warming, glaciation, meteor strike or what ever is possible.
Posted by sboverie
8th Dec 2009
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Um, the earth is hardly a "closed system"
Don't forget, a mere 1AU away, there is a 1.9891 ?1030 KG fusion
reactor with variable output. It has a very large influence on our
weather.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
Against stupidity the gods themselves contend in vain. ~Schiller

Let's have a look at the scum-sucking liars on the denial side, who make wildly fraudulent claims for a living and who would cheerfully eat their own mothers to make a buck.

Now, compare them to the vast majority of climate scientists who struggle mightily to determine the truth.

I trust this impartial analysis clarifies matters.
Posted by bjflanagan
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
sboverie, I agree with your summary. And JohnMcGrew, you are also right that the Sun plays a pivotal role.
I think the key is that regardless of what's causing the climate changes, it's never been a matter of just saving the Earth. The Earth will go on no matter what, with or without us.
It's about increasing OUR odds for long and short-term survival, and in what form or quality that will be, that will always be debated and will be based on our impact on the biosphere.
Posted by HvyMtl
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
"It has a very large influence on our
weather."

Thank you, Captain Obvious.
Posted by bjflanagan
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
"How many cars, jet aircrft, etc., caused the floods 800 years ago?"

O, gosh, you're right -- mountains of climate data demolished by one simple question!
Posted by bjflanagan
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
Thanks for validating a bogus story based on stolen email without context. East Anglia is not the center of climate research - there is no single institution that is. Flip or cynical statements gleaned from the stolen emails of a few scientists at one institution has zero practical effect on the great mass of science done on this subject. By buying in to a manufactured scandal, you're helping to further drag the minor progress being made on environmental degradation back to a crawl. If you had really dug into the science behind this, instead of doing a google search, you might have been able to add something to general understanding of all the problems created by pollution, of which climate change is only a part. Instead, you've added to the dumbing down of science already endemic in the US.
Posted by eathiel
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
"Kudos for having the courage to speak out honestly and moderately about this topic."

Props, too, for preserving the unwavering integrity of the fossil corporations.
Posted by bjflanagan
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
"If the advocates of Anthropogenic Global Warming wish to make their case, now they are going to have to do it with "honest" science, which will mean building new databases and codecs that are open to everybody."

Oh, and if they could simplify all those maps of polar ice disintegrating, that would be nice, too.
Posted by bjflanagan
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
As a retired research scientist in atmospheric physics with degrees in Meteorology and Computer Science, I must say that the assertion of anthropogenic global warming contradict nearly everything I learned about the earth's heat budget and the resulting climatological regimes. The models being used appear to me to be inadequate to the task and fraught with simplifying assumptions that reflect the ideological biases of the modeler rather than science aimed at understanding physical reality. A lot of people stand to lose or gain a lot of money based upon the outcome of the debate over global warming, so there is very little objectivity to be seen. The sun is the primary driver of climate on earth but as NASA reported in "Living with a Star" -- "...there are very few
scientists in the world who devote all or most of their efforts to the investigation of the effects of solar variability on climate" and that is a shame!
Posted by oldforecaster
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
"Politics has so poisoned the atmosphere that unless the restart button is pushed, the truth will never come out."

The fossil industries have so poisoned the earth, it's going to take them a long time to poison the politics to a commensurate degree. They will need all the babbling imbeciles they can muster.
Posted by bjflanagan
8th Dec 2009
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Denial Isn't Just A River In Africa
This isn't a political issue, unless your a conservative.

We can't keep dumping all mater of waste including greenhouse
gasses into the environment and escape the consequences by
denying them.

The conservatives should have their own planet where they can
pollute without restraint, but the majority of people don't want to
live on there. Our lives are more important than money.
Posted by yobtaf
8th Dec 2009
0 Votes
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
"The earth is millions of years old, and if I remember correctly our data only goes back about 150 years."

The earth is billions of years old, Sparky, and our ice core data goes back millions of those years.
Posted by bjflanagan
8th Dec 2009
0 Votes
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
The original data was not thrown away, it just wasn't saved at East Anglia. It still resides where it was originally collected. Don't blame all of science because of what one small group did. Unfortunately, many other groups did data analysis based on what they got from East Anglia, not raw temperature data. East Anglia's job was to "normalize" the data for some reason, and they went overboard and fed all others a bunch of crap.
Posted by trybble1
8th Dec 2009
0 Votes
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OOPS
That should be "you're" a conservative instead of "your"
Posted by yobtaf
8th Dec 2009
0 Votes
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Yes, Global Warming Science Needs a Restart
38 years ago I worked with 3,000 years of raw computerized weather
data. We saw NO trend. 90% of the world's ice is in Antarctica. It
has been increasing for 30 years. 100% of the climate science
exposed shows tricks to hide contrary data and discredit opponents.
Hydroponic show places, like Disey Epcot Land, ENRICH CO2 to many
times current levels and the far higher levels we had earlier. Super
Freakonomics (read free on Amazon) says Bill Gates, his ex-Microsoft
CTO and some of the best climate scientists say 1970s global COOLING
ended as we cleaned up heavy carbon particles and aerosols. They
know rather cheap, quick, easy ways to regulate global warming,
minimize ULV damage and increase crop yields, without adding
pollution. For example, 18 mile hot air balloon smoke stacks for 1 -
5 coal plants. The essence of science is you propose a theory. If
data does not support it, then the theory is not accepted, so there
is no need to PROVE there is no man-made global warming. 30,000
scientists signed petitions saying man-made global warming is not
proven.
Posted by mblock@...
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
I remember a TV documentary stating that when Krakatoa erupted in 1883, it pumped out more polution than man had managed in his entire history (including the Industrial Revolution) up to the time of that statement being made, which was I think 1983 (centenary of the eruption).

My point is - How arrogant are we to think that our activities can have such a drastic effect on the Earth's climate and even more so, that we can reverse climate change?

It does exist, but I think it is adjustments being made as the last Ice Age peters out. There will be disasters of biblical proportions and it is up to us to find ways of moving people and improving defences. You know, useful things, rather than a mix of wild hysteria and juming on the gravy-train.

I heard the PM Gordon Brown call 'denialists' (as a previous blogger put it) 'flat-earthers'. I have semi-seriously joked with others about there being a new era of witches and heretics and to save his backside in the elections, he has wholeheartedly gone the populist route. God (whoever he may be) help us.
Posted by jules.ellis@...
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
The problems are much deeper than glbal climate change. They go to the way politici understand science and technology.

Scientists have some of the blame. They do not clearly state the scence and tend to talk down to the public and not thave the patience to explain in correct but understandable detail Poiticians confuse technology with science.

The issue of global warming has been discussed for many years.

I have found no scientist who does not agree with the following:
In about 1829 the French scientist Jaques Fourier suggested that the earth is a greenhouse. Only thus could he explain why the earth is warmert ahn it would be if it radiated the energy it absobed from the sun. About 1979 professor Tyndall of Theteh aUniverasity of Bristol measured the absorption of infra red raduiaion in carbon dioxide and water vapoer and these became the most important "greenhouse gases".
In 1897the Swedish chemist arrhenius calculated the effect of these gaes as greenhouse gases and suggested that the changes in the concentrations thereof were consistent with the changes of temperature at the time of the great ice ages.

All this was aught in the meteorology course at Oxford University by professor Dobson in 1945.

Starting in the 1960s accurate measurements of carbon dioxide measurements have been made in Hawaii. These are not disputed. They have risen over 50% since 1900 The rise is faster than anything seen before in history although that is not quite socertain as it is derived from looking at ice cores

It is convenient to discuss the effect of a "static" doubling of CO2 concentrations on temperature. This can be calculated from the properties of CO2 and there is little disagreement thereof. The CO2 is roughly uniform around the world. But as I look out of my window I see clearly that water vapor is not. But as the temperature goes up more water will obviously be evaporated. What dioes this do? Here disagreements begin which are hotly debated. maybe the effect is doubled due to water vapor. Matybe more or less. Some believe it could be very much more tahn doubled. One cannot be sure.

If this were an ordinary scientific issue the discussion could take place in an ivory tower. But we all know there there are possible implications which though more uncertain must be brought to the body politic. It is here that science can, and doses, It is vital that the body politic realize that from this point on, science can give us guidance but with much less assurance.

Scientists will and should argue about details but the general feature is clear. I have talked to s0-called skeptics and main line scientists. They only differ by a factor of 2 in these numbers. No number of intercepted e mails can change this. It is here that we need careful attention of how to communicate these facts and these theories and surmises to the public and the politicians they elect. Scientists are all too often sloppy
It is convenient to discuss the effect on temperature of a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere.

But the newspapers and other media are even more to blame - especially since this is their particular chosebn position in the channels of communication

I found this particularly on radiation issues over the years. Infter Three Mile Island not one newspaper got the units right. This persisted through Chernobyl and in the Japanese criticality accident of 10 years ago, even the New York Times was off by a factor of 1000. (Fortunately I stopped NPR from quoting them)

Richard Wilson
Mallinckrodt Professor of physics emeritus
Harvard University
Posted by richardwilsonma
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
Of course the science needs to be looked at. You have to remember how
fragile we are on this issue. What do 100% of the UN members in
Copenhagen have in common? They as well as academia in their
countries are literally blind to temperature. It is absolutely
terrifying to watch the world push this garbage science through while
betting the world economy on it.

Politicians have a short mandate and therefore use science with a hug
swag factor(scientific wild assed guess)

Something is warming the atmosphere and changing weather, have we
seen the source of the heat? I have an engineering background and
engineering is very specific science, that is why we ride elevators,
planes and drive cars because they are engineered science.

We need to see the source of heat and they don't have it. Here is an
example of the flawed science with emissions. On December 6, 2009 we
completed infrared imaging of building development in Canada to see
how buildings became urban heat islands. It was -3 C outdoors and the
buildings were being radiated by the sun, producing heat over 50 C
with zero emissions being produced.
http://www.thermoguy.com/pdfs/Urban-Heat-on-December-6-2009.pdf

Amazing to think a coat of paint, a coating or shade would eliminate
the heat and codes specify that, we just couldn't see it. If you want
to see how we are creating urban heat islands all year round and
using massive emissions to treat the symptoms, here is that link.
http://www.thermoguy.com/pdfs/Urban-Heat-Islands-Winter-and-
Summer.pdf

Professionals can fix this easily, we just couldn't see it.
Posted by Thermoguy
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
Even if every person cited in the stolen emails was discredited, that would mean only 99% of climate scientists are trustworthy believe that global climate change (an unfortunate term "global warming" as it ameliorates the impact) is upon us.

I'll put "reset the scientific data" in the same category as "Obama must prove his citizenship". Only complete morons subscribe.
Posted by SnoopDougEDoug
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
On the "To Do" list I would suggest that the climate change argument needs just that, an argument. Honest, knowlegeable scientists applying scientific principle to discover the truth not the armchair Einsteins we have today lobbing dung at one another. This would include not calling anyone who dares to disagree with you names like skeptic or denialist. When someone shuts down an honest debate with a label you can be sure you have moved from science to politics.
Posted by santat
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
Good article, thank you. I am wondering what is the source for your graph? And why did you choose that one?
I don't believe the issue is climate change, of course the climate changes. The debate is whether 1) humans are causing a problem that will appear in the future and 2) regardless of the root cause, can and should humans do anything about the factors that contribute to climate change. Besides what looks like flawed data, there are a host of flawed arguments floating around. For example, just because something could happen doesn't mean it will.
Posted by jonniva
8th Dec 2009
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"Global warming science" should not exsit, maintain the science of fact.
Unfortunately with such a title and form what I have read you have already made up your mind that most humans have a negative affect on our climate and looking for a more credible way to justify it even though you are now aware of the falsification and politicization which has perpetuated this lie. That is incredibly ignorant. Just step back for a second and think. Is there anyone left in the media which can still do this? Remember a journalist is there is verify a story, a lead and if he cannot, inform us on what he has discovered not suggest we must repackage the false notions of the past with better hyperbole so to somehow be more credible. Is your function to be a propagandist or a journalist? Chose one, admit it to yourself and your audience and move on.

Climate does change, thus what is the issue here? It has done so since day one, which means before humans. For example the dinosaurs did not case their extinction through affecting the climate change they experienced. There was a force external to them. There was the sun, moon, stars, this galaxy, other galaxies, meteors and armies. All of these and other known and unknown variables play a role in affecting climate on this planet all of which non US military humans have no power to affect (at least not at this time). Thus the question is twofold. First which of these variable(s) has the most significant affect and second so what?

Clearly to our knowledge thus far the sun has a greater more direct affect on this planets climate than human actions, however this will change in the future as the militaries of the word such as the US through such programs as HARRP start to affect climate on this planet even though they have already signed tries in the mid 1970?s to prevent such actions. It will not be you and me in our cars. Canadian and American citizens should not be so arrogant to think that we are so omni important and significant that or trip to the Home Depot affected the earth in a negative way. Not even the three trips to source the correct bolt for our little home project. Therefore if besides the sun some humans through military programs can affect weather or climate on this planet why is this not discussed or understood more clearly.

There is something at stake here and it is freedom and truth. Do journalist have any notions of these words? Do they care for them? Do they honor them? Or are they so ignorant and fearful of losing their jobs such as Lou Dobbs that they continue to perpetuate the corporate agenda which in this case is about promoting a ONE WORLD GOVERNMENT predicated on the military industrial complex. Don?t accept this FACT then do your own research and read for yourself. First fact, many sovereign governments are being replaced by supper governments such as in the EU, North American Union through the Peace and Prosperity Agreements, Asian Union, African Union. UN, WHO, UNCLOS (Law of the Sea Convention or the Law of the Sea treaty). Those that oppose it get a visit from the US army made morally sell-able via the UN army of ?peace? keepers. Second count the number of wars over the last 60 years while the permanent member of the ?security? council at the UN are major manufactures of armaments, and represent the top army nations of the world. Quite a coincidence.
Posted by mario@...
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
The more philosophical hatred you have for the automobile and our western way of life, the more of an emotional and ego vested interest you're going to have in the idea of the world coming to an end from global warming.

It may very well be that the greatest crisis of our time isn't that the world is coming to an end from global warming, but that intellectuals have run out of patience with humanity.
Posted by AlexKovnat
8th Dec 2009
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its exactly what I'm saying
If you look at the whole history of the Global Warming movement,
it's half a century old. It was nothing but a political gander and
relied on bought science. It's taken decades for it to catch on, its
funny, the concept of man made global warming was thought up decades
ago as nothing but a political move and now after many many years of
repeated propaganda it just TURNS OUT TO BE TRUE! Wow! thats really
amazing. Then you look at the money allocated to the research, and
it seems the more money being allocated for global warming research
the more evidence is produced! Now most people are not so dishonest,
even for money, but when you weed out the honest scientists by not
hiring them again and then discrediting all other dissenters the
minute they voice dissent. What do you end up with? Exactly what we
have today. I've talked to a pro man made global warming
climatologist and they got aggressively angry with me just for
asking if they thought there was any truth to the dissenters
argument. She even went to far as to degrade the intellect and
insult the morals of a group of people I simply referenced as dissenters of global warming. Making an example of one case of an
obviously unstable individual regardless of her professional
achievements is really a faux argument and a fallacy but its simply
what I see from this "science" all around. I see a documentary and
the attitude of the "scientists" they get to interview are so
dismissive of the opposing view one can hardly grasp the possibility
that they're objective.

Then you start looking at the science. (I personally blame
institutionalized "learning"/propaganda for forming young minds to
simply accept what they're told, but it's not so hard to go through
the science yourself and see if the interpretations of the data make
sense) EVERYTHING, from the historical "evidence" in core samples,
the amount of man made green house gases are being produced to the
effects CO2 has in the atmosphere. It doesn't add up. It's legitimate research, but the interpretation of the data doesn't add
up. Like the glitch in the satellite data that showed the ice caps
shrinking, people are still using that data even though it was
proven false a long time ago. Or the whole chunk of ice that broke
of because of "global warming" even though there was a FREAKING
VOLCANO UNDERNEATH OF IT! And NO mention of the volcano. After
piecing these together you find the whole thing is corrupt, and if
man made global warming IS a true theory, why do they need to create
a false movement to make people believe it.

Truth is, I've tried so hard to believe it, it would sure be easier
to hand around other friends and not have to get into huge debates
about it. But I can't, the evidence doesn't point me there.
Posted by shadfurman
8th Dec 2009
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Finally, a level-headed analysis and suggestions from SmartPlanet
This article is a very welcome change from the politically charged support that has been blatantly present on so many other ZDNet and SmartPlanet articles regarding global warming and "green technology" and green living.
Posted by adornoe
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
What is amazing that when you try to access information that was
readily available not long ago it is not accessible now like the
average temperatures from 1800 to a present date date. NASA
used to have data that gave the information about Solar flares and
its effect on our planet. The e-mails that the hard liners are
dismissing give information that effectively gives data that is
desired not what is truthful. We talk about science but in fact its
about the One World Order and nothing about science.
Posted by another grumpy old man
8th Dec 2009
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bjflannaga: mountains of climate data demolished by one simple question?
Let's rephrase that statement to take into consideration the real truth from the real science.

mountains of FRAUDULENT climate data demolished by one simple statement.

What is your problem anyway?

If YOUR side of the science did in fact have the science correct, then it will be able to stand up to the scrutiny of the real science which can be undertaken in full view of all sides of the arguments. But, let's let the science work.

Stupidly using "denier" or "denialist" in your arguments only goes to prove how radical and arrogant and closed-minded your side of the argument has been.

Again, if the science is "sound" like you claim, then let's have at it. No more hiding of the evidence and no more hiding of the models.
Posted by adornoe
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
The hard science shows that the Earth's climate had been warming and cooling for millions of years and nothing man does changes that. What we are doing is polluting our planet! So let's fix that and start planning on how we are going to survive the next global major climate fluctuation be it warming or cooling. The hard science also shows that the Earth's next magnetic field swap is in the making, infact is a few thousand years overdue. Are we as a planet ready for that. I don't think so.
Posted by nevertells@...
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
POLITICS BEHIND CAP & TRADE
THE RICH WILL GET RICHER
Cap & Trade is being imposed on the world because it creates a 3 trillion dollar commodity market for you guessed it: hot air. The beneficiaries are the rich special interest who will get wealthier setting up and trading the new commodities market.
But citizens will pay more taxes to operate new regulatory bureaucracies and more for goods as business passes the cost along.
IT ENSURES THE STATUS QUO FOR OPEC AND TERRORISM
During the decades America enjoyed great prosperity no concern was expressed for the plight of the uninsured. I challenge Washington to keep money, technology and jobs in the US by reducing trade imbalance.

America has natural gas and coal in abundance and can eliminate dependence on foreign oil and does not need to send billions to countries that sponsor terrorism.

It is estimated that every billion in trade deficit equals 13,000 jobs lost. Washington could keep money, technology and jobs in the US by reducing the trade imbalance. And during the decades America enjoyed great prosperity, no concern was expressed for the plight of the uninsured.

Isn?t the timing interesting? With the world is in recession and US unemployment figures hovering around 10% the EPA exceeds it authority and determines CO2 is a pollutant that must be regulated.

The United States agreed to transfer jobs and technology to developing countries under INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT Algiers Declaration Algiers, Algeria, 4-6 March 1975

In this context, they emphasize the necessity for the full implementation of the Programme of Action adopted by the United Nations General Assembly at its VI Special Session, and accordingly they emphasize the following requirements [excerpt from full declaration]

"With regard to the depletable natural resources, as OPEC?s petroleum resources are, it is essential that the transfer of technology must be commensurate in speed and volume with the rate of their depletion, which is being accelerated for the benefit and growth of the economies of the developed countries"

A major portion of the planned or new petrochemical complexes, oil refineries and fertilizer plants be built in the territories of OPEC Member Countries with the co-operation of industrialized nations for export purposes to the developed countries with guaranteed access for such products to the markets of these countries. [Excerpt from declaration] Read sections 10 and 11]
TROUBLING IMPLEMENTATION QUESTIONS
Who gets to decide how many credits each business or person should receive? Should larger businesses automatically receive more credits?
Should credits be taxable? After all credits have value and are the equivalent of issuing a global currency. Who should tax them, sovereign nations or the UN?
Who and how will credits be issued and audited to prevent outright fraud?
Are credits assets a business can liquidate when it goes out of business? If a business in California goes out of business and sells its CO2 credits to a company in England, will a new company in California have to find another seller before opening his business and replacing lost jobs?
Will multi-national companies export new construction and jobs to 3rd world non-subscribing countries? And the flipside, will the people of the Amazon miss out on new opportunities because an American company bought thousands of acres to be left unused to acquire carbon sequestration credits.
If planet Earth has an optimal CO2 carrying capacity then does a growing population and more businesses mean a lower standard of living and reduced CO2 allotment for each new person or business.
Should children be allowed to inherit their parents CO2 permits? Should couples be limited to having two children? Should there be an inheritance tax?
What entity gets to decide what Earth?s optimal CO2 carrying capacity is?
Job 38:4 New American Standard Bible (?1995)
................................................................................
"Where were you when I laid the foundation of the earth? Tell Me, if you have understanding,
Job 15:7 "Were you the first man to be born, Or were you brought forth before the hills?
Psalm 104:5 He established the earth upon its foundations, So that it will not totter forever and ever.
Proverbs 8:29 When He set for the sea its boundary So that the water would not transgress His command, When He marked out the foundations of the earth;
Proverbs 30:4 Who has ascended into heaven and descended? Who has gathered the wind in His fists? Who has wrapped the waters in His garment? Who has established all the ends of the earth? What is His name or His son's name? Surely you know! (NASB ?1995)
Genesis 9:7 "As for you, be fruitful and multiply; Populate the earth abundantly and multiply in it."
IS MANKIND REALLY CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING
According to science, the Earth has had multiple tropical and glacial ages over the millennia. If operating automobiles is causing global warming Fred Flintstone must have had a huge truck fleet. Or is global warming a cyclical event more affected by sun spot cycles.
The most recent news is that the oceans of the world will be cooling for the next 25-30 years.
Furthermore, it is my understanding that the most prevalent hot house gas is water vapor. Should citizens of earth try to stop the rain cycle?
COMMON SENSE
Poverty is the worst form of pollution.
Only wealthy nations and people can afford to do something about it.
I am against Cap and Trade in the best of times but it is national suicide to consider implementing this costly new program when America's economy is teetering on the brink! The only Cap and Trade I will vote for is handing their Caps to politicians who vote yes on the issue and trading them in for new representatives!
Posted by Repeal
8th Dec 2009
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jonniva; regarding the chosen graph...
The graph show is of course one of those at the heart of the argument FOR global warming.

However, the "hockey stick" graph is pure fiction as explained in the following:

The Decline They Hid: the Deleted Portion of the Briffa Reconstruction - http://www.evolutionnews.org/2009/12/the_decline_they_hid_the_delet.html

Quoting:

Briffa compiled tree-ring data to obtain global temperature estimates back to 1400. But there was a problem with the tree-ring data, from the warmist perspective. The tree ring data showed pronounced cooling beginning in the mid-20th century. This was at variance with some ground temperature measurements (so we are told- the actual raw data from the ground stations was 'accidently' thrown in the garbage in the 1980's, and all we have are 'modified' data from the CRU scientists themselves.)

So the method that the warmist climate scientists used to estimate temperatures over the past millenium or so (tree ring data) did not show warming that correlated with rising CO2. This leaves a couple of possibilities, neither favorable to the warmist hypothesis. Either the tree ring data in the 20th century that was inconsistent with temperature recordings meant that the older tree ring data was unreliable (eliminating the argument that the warming was unprecedented) or the temperature recordings were inaccurate (perhaps from the heat island effect, in which sensors situated near growing urban areas give spurriously high readings) and rising CO2 didn't cause warming.

What to do?

Simple. Delete the tree ring data beginning in the mid-20th century, when the cooling became pronounced, and use (already CRU 'modified') ground station data more supportive of the warmist hypothesis in it's place.

Climate scientist and skeptic Steve McIntyre:

"Hide the decline" refers to the decline in the Briffa MXD temperature reconstruction in the last half of the 20th century, a decline that called into question the validity of the tree ring reconstructions. (I'm going to analyze the letters on another occasion.) In the IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports, IPCC "hid the decline" by simply deleting the post-1960 values of the troublesome Briffa reconstruction - an artifice that Gavin Schmidt characterizes as an ?a good way to deal with a problem" and tells us that there is "nothing problematic" about such an artifice

Not only were the post-1960 values of the Briffa reconstruction not shown in the IPCC 2001 report - an artifice that Gavin describes as being "hidden in plain sight", they were deleted from the archived version of the reconstruction at NOAA here (note: the earlier Briffa 2000 data here does contain a related series through to 1994.)

Posted by adornoe
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
A link for your studies: junkscience.com
Posted by montrose
8th Dec 2009
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An official restatement, not a restart
Thanks for embodying the zeitgeist. Four thoughts: 1) A restart might take years - do we want to run the risk that we do not act for another few critical years and the current science is still valid (which is still the case until proof of the contrary)?
2) This could be rational choice if the potential outcome weren't so dangerous - but we take insurances for much smaller things.
3) What is needed is a quick and official validation of the key tenets of the analysis ("good enough"), a continuation of the current regulatory and market trajectory, and a validation ASAP of the entire body of science so that before USING the big artillery we double check.
4) Sequencing these activities would be irrational.
Posted by giannigiacomelli
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
Dear friends of belief or doubt, this discussion makes me ask three basal questions:

Firstly, never before in history mankind or any species has let out so many gases, particles, and dissolved substances, into the different spheres of the earth. Why would it be so astonishing if we, in this industrial era of exponentially expanding production of everything, have started to influence the global system as a whole?

Secondly, the critic always stresses that there may be other factors behind climate change than mankind's doings. This may of course be true, and has to be illuminated. But where are the detailed facts collected by thousands of scientists which give proof of some other major mechanism(s) behind the melting ice masses and all other things we see today, or shall we skip the strategy to make decisions on what, given limitations in our knowledge, seems to be most likely by now?

Thirdly, this discussion here is irrelevant if the participants believe that we can discuss the use of fossil fuels as some kind of eternal choice, and that we may skip renewable energy if we want to. Has anybody here taken into consideration that the worst climate effects may not even happen, since the oil and coal stores are not large enough? Instead we should welcome renewable energy technology, and thorium reactors, and fusion, and whatever is possible for us to produce in a feasible way, since there is a crisis in the fossil fuel supply emerging. This is especially obvious if we take into account that all the world today wants the standard level of the old western countries, that the number of people increases, and that (so far) some of the largest countries evidently are successful in their aim to develop resource exploitation.
Posted by bsowen
8th Dec 2009
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No need to start over ...
The scientific community is no more (or less) free of extreme views (or from dishonesty, greed, jealousy, competition, hatred, etc.) than any other community of human beings.

Unlike the casual observer though, the scientific community is, by and large, faithful to rigorous principles of hypothesis, testing, and analysis of results, leading to theory. Peer Review is the cornerstone of the Scientific Process.

We are all guilty of saying (and writing) things which, taken out of context, make us sound [insert your most negative characteristic here]. Fine. So these e-mails "look bad" to some.

In the end, the overwhelming sense of the scientific community is that the planet is getting warmer - and doing so at a rate not seen since before humans (or most other mammals) first walked the earth.

Some in the scientific community still question whether the human race is responsible (in any way) for this global warming. But once again, the consensus is that human activity is responsible for what are considered by most to be alarming trends.

Different segments of the scientific community are concerned about different aspects of the potential impact of continued global warming. This just complicates the issue for many ordinary people who do not understand the subtleties of climate change.

For instance, warmer AVERAGE temperatures mean more rain (and thus more severe storms) where it is seasonally warm and more snow where it is seasonally cold.

Less ice at the poles means more warming from sunlight - leading to even less ice. Polar mammals/birds have less access to food and places far from land from which to hunt.

Higher sea levels and warmer seas cause more severe hurricanes, more flooding, less clean water for humans, etc.

Oh, and the increase in moisture in the air means more heat trapped in the atmosphere.

In arid places, we might see more rain at first but eventually, dry places get dryer and food production drops to zero.

(Africa was once all jungle. The emergence of grasslands led to humans - and grazing animals to hunt. Now there is drought and grasslands have turned to desert in much of Africa. Where does it end?)

To suggest that it is all a scam cooked up my some windmill company or nuclear power advocates is just irresponsible.
Posted by mwagner@...
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
First off, I disagree with your summary that it leaves the data in question. There are over 2,500 scientists around the world that agree on one thing: We need to do something.

Despite the science not being perfect, isn't it incumbent upon us to do what we can now, before it is too late? Shall we just debate the scale of our efforts or take care of the only planet we have? It hurts me to see so many people say, "Well it's not my fault. They aren't sure. Let's continue indulging ourselves into near extinction." Or perhaps that is "God's plan"?
Posted by ehielema@...
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
Part of the problem here is that the term "disaster" is in the eye of the beholder. A truly global disaster is not predicted even by the possibly exaggerated IPCC projections. Such things as a 20' sea level rise by end of this century with Florida sinking beneath the waves is purely AlGorian science fiction: The worst IPCC scenario projects less than 2' rise.
On the other hand, if you live in a low-lying seaside community, even the likely 1' or so of sea level rise will be an inconvenient truth.
The 1997 Kyoto Protocol was supposed to save 483 million tons of atmospheric carbon by 2012. China?s coal plants alone are projected to have emitted 1,926 million tons by then ? over 4 times the proposed reduction. Since 1997, US CO2 output has increased 3.7%, but world-wide output has increased 31%. Eco-radicals exhort us to ?stop global warming?, but this is out of America?s hands.
In the last decade, CO2 increased 7%, reaching 385 ppm. At that geometric rate, in the year 2100 it would get to about 750 ppm, and if you trust the IPCC simulation ensemble, temperatures would rise about 2.6 deg. C (1.6-4.2), and sea level rise .21-.46 m. (8"-18"). However, if rationality is allowed to prevail, the actual result will be much less - not because of draconian governmental action, but because it will make good economic sense to replace expensive fossil fuels with biomass-derived fuels, among other cost-effective green technologies.
Still, we are fully capable of creating a disaster by exercise of political coercion to strangle our own economy to "fight global warming", thereby suppressing the creative private enterprise that can provide the only path to solving our most critical problem: resource exhaustion.
Posted by macmcf
8th Dec 2009
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RE: Does global warming science need a restart (or at least a new story)?
'Climategate'? Get your news right. Have you actually read the
emails? These emails have been thoroughly investigated and there is
nothing in them that suggests lies or deceit. Anyone convinced of a
point of view will seek to find the best way to argue their case -
that is all that has been discussed in those emails. You only have
to listen to your parish priest 'interpreting' the bible to see how
easily quoting something out of context can be misinterpreted.
Question - If I store millions of tons of carbon in the earth for
millions of years, then within a 100 year span throw that carbon
into the atmosphere,do you think this might have a detrimental and
unnatural effect on the earth's climate? This is a no-brainer.
We are in the middle of a mass of extinction of animal species. Hard
science. Rising sea levels will cause trillions of dollars in
damages. Hard science - Munich Re the largest insurance company in
the world estimates that within our children's lifetimes natural
disasters, now their biggest cost, will bankrupt national economies
world-wide. So the world' biggest insurance company is part of the
global warming hoax as well?
Your 'Climategate' article is not about seeking the truth, the truth
as glaringly obvious as the polar meltdown, temperature records, and
record droughts and floods. Why give this sort of nonsense any
discussion at all? It is as unethical to provide ammunition to
scared or ignorant or monetarily motivated denialists as it is to
condone the thief who invaded the emails of scientists corresponding
privately. Read your own emails from years ago and I'm sure you
would be seriously embarrassed to let others read them out of
context because they can obviously be misinterpreted, especially if
that is the reader's intention.
Posted by cjcronin
8th Dec 2009
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