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Hello Hurricane Earl

By Boonsri Dickinson | September 1, 2010, 9:51 PM PDT

This is an infrared image of Hurricane Earl, taken by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite. The Category Four hurricane is a little ahead of schedule — peak hurricane season is shy of 10 days.

With the help of NASA satellites, researchers predict that the hurricane will move like this:

Earl is expected to continue to move northwest, and then make a gradual turn to the north on Thursday, Sept. 2. The core of Earl is expected to approach the North Carolina coast by late Thursday with hurricane-force winds. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to reach the East Coast from Virginia northward to New Jersey by early Friday, Sept. 3. Earl is expected to fluctuate in intensity through Thursday, then gradually weaken.

When I lived in Florida, hurricanes were something we had to prepare for by stocking up on food, water, and all the other necessities. I never thought that I’d possibly have to do the same here in New York.

While it looks like Earl will come close to us, it should not strike Manhattan.

In the event that a hurricane does make it into this city, we are screwed basically. There wouldn’t be enough time for everyone to evacuate. With our notorious low-lying areas, a hurricane could bring on a 30 feet storm surge that could flood parts of the city.

The thing is, similar scenarios to this one have actually occurred before. The 1821 hurricane left the streets south of Canal Street in a flooded mess. And the 1938 storm killed about 800 people. More recent ones caused similar disturbances. But, there’s no denying the fact that New York has been pretty lucky.

But with climate change and rising sea levels trends, a hurricane could become a more serious threat. Our low-lying neighborhoods would be screwed and the entire transportation system would be stalled.

Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

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About Boonsri Dickinson

Boonsri Dickinson was a contributing editor for SmartPlanet from 2010 to 2012.

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People Have Existed with Violent Storms & Natural Hazards

since forever but still reside in risk prone areas and dare to test
forces greater than they can ever imagine. Go figure. It seems
fine to them so long as they can get others to be responsible for
their folly and finance the restoration.
Climatology is a burgeoning science prone to error as
hypotheses are tested and observations are made using the best
available instruments and techniques. Data is still being
gathered and accessed so any assertion about phenomena or
measurements is based upon a very limited amount of recorded
data. There is still a debate whether the atmospheric content of
variable gases, such as CO2, leads or lags temperature.
Anyway, I'm all for reducing harmful emissions along with all other
pollutants as well as addressing socio-economic disparity but
considering the corruption rampant across America along with
many other instances that show undue influence obfuscates just
action, well it's no wonder the clowns merely play for the benefit
of the oligarchs entitled with access while greenwashing is
rampant in order to privately capitalize from fear and drama not to
improve the planet or help anybody else but to profit for their own
sake. Hubris is as much a poison as other vices and that is too
bad when such critical issues require sound policy and action.
You would think that the promise provided by regulations and
agencies would be strong enough to prevent many of the
catastrophes that have occurred. However, from the misguided
invasion of Iraq (or the whole GWOT for that matter) to the
financial crisis and the Deepwater Horizon disaster, recent as well
as past events show how gullible people can be as justified
response is obfuscated by cheap patriotism or effective
precautions can be disabled and bureaucracies can be staffed
with biased insiders simply because people are too self-
interested and even filled with vices such as greed that they
would willingly destroy the environment, make others suffer or
lose their livelihoods, and even sacrifice other lives just so that
they enjoy capital gain; yet they can evade accountability when
causing things to go wrong and avoid responsibility to adequately
compensate when disaster inflicts harm upon others. Consider
the bail-outs and even Treasury access provided to some while
many others still experience austerity and undeserved pressures
... do you really think this government cares about doing the right
thing much less being truthful about anything?
About those know it alls trying to force their values upon others
and dare to deride them for questioning the issues ... what have
you actually forsaken, promoted, or improved for the sake of
sustainability?
I know all this isn't good news and is challenging your illusions but
the sooner something is done to improve the condition of
government by removing the undue influences creating disparity
along with unacceptable levels of waste and destruction, then we
may resolve the social conditions along with contributing to a
better future for the people and all living beings.

Posted by donnydo77@...

22nd Feb

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RE: Hello Hurricane Earl

My father went through the 1938 Hurricane and he lived in the
center of New Hampshire and he saw the barn roof lifted right off
and set out in the field. There were 100's of trees taken down
and they put them all in the local lakes and ponds to keep them
from getting bugs in them so that they could saw them into
lumber. I don't think that we here in the northeast have seen
anything like it since then. I presently live in Northern New
Jersey. I really don't agree with your global warming thing
however I do agree that if something like that 1938 hurricane hit
us we could be in trouble.

Posted by rpmorrison

2nd Sep 2010

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RE: Hello Hurricane Earl

I agree with rpmorrison about global warming: nearly 1000 years ago it was so warm that wine grapes grew in England and the Vikings herded sheep in Greenland - and that didn't spell the end of the world. Global warming is not a crisis - and definitely worth all the crisis hysteria. The weather runs in cycles - get used to it.

Posted by cb77305

Updated - 3rd Sep 2010

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RE: Hello Hurricane Earl

I generally agree with the previous comments, with one clarification. Climate change may well be happening; the open question in my mind is whether it is man-made. cb77305's comment is in line with my view that climate change is a natural phenomenon. Things may be warming up, but that could be because we're leaving behind an unnaturally cold period that has lasted over the last century or two.
What is normal over the long run of millenia? Are we just getting back to normal?

Posted by Schleeve

2nd Sep 2010

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RE: Hello Hurricane Earl

I agree with your Freudian slip - "climate chance". I'm always
surprised when do-gooders try to change the natural course of
events. Try as they might, the Earth will still warm, and the Earth
will still cool, just as it always has for millions of years. We can't do
anything about it, except waste taxpayer money. What a shame
that is what happens at the worst possible time for the world's
economies!

Posted by Common_Sense

2nd Sep 2010

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RE: Hello Hurricane Earl

@ all of the abovwe comments

us adding 33% CO2 to the 1850 baseline is NOT natural, us adding 150% methane to the 1850 is not natural either... thats and all its warming is ALL US... like it or lump it.... and technically anything above whatever the baseline for 10,000 BC up to 2 million BC.

PLUS lets not forget all climate effect as a result of deforestation ... meaning the earth has a decreased capacity to deal with the natural biospheres CO2 emissions, even before accounting for all our CO2.

sorry, but no amount of ignorance can change the fact that human have become a force of nature, nor does ignorance stop the glaciers from melting and all of those associated effects, which including further accelerating global warming... its time to think bigger than yourself to justify a lifestyle that simply isn't sustainable, esspecially as billions more people adopt a similar lifestyle, which will only multiply the problem, unless we seriously rethink our way of life.

Posted by Daryl420

2nd Sep 2010

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One question Daryl..

How can the previous warming periods the earth has gone through be explained if none of the man generated CO2 sources existed back then?

Posted by Hates Idiots

2nd Sep 2010

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Here's your answer

Logically, the fact that there natural climate cycles does not mean that those cycles can't be affected by human activity. It's rather like saying that because forest fires can be caused by natural forces, there can be no such thing as a man-made forest fire.

Stranger yet is the notion that we can exponentially increase the human population, cut down forests, pour CO2 and other gases into the atmosphere at record rates, drive other species to extinction, pour man-made chemicals into the air, water, and soil and still, through some unknown magic, have no impact whatsoever on the world in which we live.

Actions have consequences. You'd think that would obvious to anyone.

Talk about idiots...

Posted by the_doge

2nd Sep 2010

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RE: Hello Hurricane Earl

prior climat warming took thousands of years. this one in what, less then 100. the nay sayers are correct that the earth will survive but if we change our ways to help it sure cant hurt.

Posted by butchiester

3rd Sep 2010

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still not answered...

You still have not answered a fundamental question.

If we are seeing global warming, an issue still under debate by true scientists, how do we know it is not natural processes fueling it when mans contribution of green house gases is insignificant compared to natures contribution?

There is far more evidence to support your statement about humans poisoning the planet than evidence to support man/bear/pig.

We know lead and mercury poisoning is real and that mans concentration and spread of these metals can kill people. We know sulfur dioxide added to the atmosphere causes acid rain. We even have the technology to track the sulfur in the acid rain back to the coal fired power plants and factories that put it in the air.

All of these and many other items are based on solid proven science.

Man/bear/pig is based on junk science and lies perpetuated by people like the goons at East Anglia who have altered data to publish counter studies whenever a fact based, peer reviewed study punched holes the size of Manhattan in the global warming hoax.

While Greenpeace is screaming about the Artic sea ice being at it smallest since the 1970s did you ever look at the data prior to 1970? Believe it or not they have these cool things called books. They are full of something called manual observations dating back hundreds of years. These observations show most of the fabled Northwest Passage was ice-free as recent as the 1850s. Ships sailed in these northern Canadian waters through out the 1850s and 60s doing scientific research and searching for a shorter commercial shipping route to the Far East and Russia. Global cooling froze over the area they were sailing for most of the 20th century turning the Northwest Passage into an ice locked legend.

Shockingly enough East Anglia houses some of the oldest manual observation data on the planet collected from a weather station at a small English collage that has been recording daily readings since well before Shakespeare lived. Yet they ignore that data when it points to warming periods prior to the industrial revolution. Talk about an inconvenient truth.

It stuns me that people assume no scientific research was done before satellites and the Internet. Many people here think if it can?t be found on a link it is not the truth. Rubbish.

The research may be easier to do today with satellites and remote weather stations and computers to collect the data, but research was done before modern technology and in some cases the data is more reliable because the poor placement of remote weather stations and sloppy collection methods by wannabe scientists. Hell, half of the global warming EXPERTS are physicists who have no scientific background in weather. Having PHDs in particle physics does not make them weather expects.

I go with the proven science. All of the old research indicates past natural spikes lasting up to hundreds of years in both global CO2 levels and global temperatures that often spiked in only a few decades. Any new and independent research that supports the old school observations is frequently attacked by the likes of the cabal at East Anglia and their supporters in perpetuating the funding fraud.

Again I ask. How did major temperature swings happen in the past within a few decades if man/bear/pig did not exist?

Posted by Hates Idiots

3rd Sep 2010

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Back to the article about NY and hurricanes.

In 1978 the newly completed The Citigroup Center skyscraper was found to have major structural defects that would have toppled the 59 story building in tropical storm or blizzard winds.

There was a rush to retrofit the building prior to the hurricane season.

The city of NY and CitiCorp kept the incident a closely guarded secret until the mid 1990s.

Posted by Hates Idiots

3rd Sep 2010

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RE: Hello Hurricane Earl

Whether or not "climate change" is a natural occurence, whether or not we will survive all its effects, it is still the best thing to be responsible for our actions and have a little care for the world we live in. Each of us can see what's happening with the world now and if we all do our share of caring to nature I'm sure we will have a better place to live in for more generations. If debating here can actually change or improve something then go on. But if it doesn't, then we'd better stop this and start doing what we can to make the world a better place. Hurricane Earl began within the Caribbean. It is tropical storm that every person is keeping their eyes on. Earl has built up to a Category four storm although it began as a class three. The Hurricane Earl path has been closely viewed to determine how likely it is to hit the United States. The hurricane has turned toward the East coast and will probably hit the United States mainland by Labor Day. North of Virginia needs to look out. That is where the storm is headed. Long Island, NY and Cape Cod better look out.

Posted by VictorJ.

6th Sep 2010

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People Have Existed with Violent Storms & Natural Hazards

Posted by donnydo77@...

22nd Feb

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