Hello Hurricane Earl

This is an infrared image of Hurricane Earl, taken by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The Category Four hurricane is a little ahead of schedule — peak hurricane season is shy of 10 days.

With the help of NASA satellites, researchers predict that the hurricane will move like this:

Earl is expected to continue to move northwest, and then make a gradual turn to the north on Thursday, Sept. 2. The core of Earl is expected to approach the North Carolina coast by late Thursday with hurricane-force winds. Tropical-storm-force winds are likely to reach the East Coast from Virginia northward to New Jersey by early Friday, Sept. 3. Earl is expected to fluctuate in intensity through Thursday, then gradually weaken.

When I lived in Florida, hurricanes were something we had to prepare for by stocking up on food, water, and all the other necessities. I never thought that I'd possibly have to do the same here in New York.

While it looks like Earl will come close to us, it should not strike Manhattan.

In the event that a hurricane does make it into this city, we are screwed basically. There wouldn't be enough time for everyone to evacuate. With our notorious low-lying areas, a hurricane could bring on a 30 feet storm surge that could flood parts of the city.

The thing is, similar scenarios to this one have actually occurred before. The 1821 hurricane left the streets south of Canal Street in a flooded mess. And the 1938 storm killed about 800 people. More recent ones caused similar disturbances. But, there's no denying the fact that New York has been pretty lucky.

But with climate change and rising sea levels trends, a hurricane could become a more serious threat. Our low-lying neighborhoods would be screwed and the entire transportation system would be stalled.

Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

This post was originally published on Smartplanet.com