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Can science stop terrorists before they strike?

By | July 31, 2012, 3:00 AM PDT

If you have a child, or a dog, you know that there are two main forms of training: positive and negative feedback. Positive feedback rewards the kid, or the dog, when they don’t poop on the rug. Negative feedback punishes them when they inevitably poop on the rug.

But what about more important things than a stinky stain on your carpet? Do either of those tactics work on potential terrorists? A new study in the American Sociological Review suggests that positive feedback - rewarding terrorists for abstinence - is far more effective than negative feedback - punishing them when they terrorize.

If this seems kind of weird to you, you’re not alone. The standard line on terrorism is a negative one. Terrorism is bad, the people who do it are bad, and they should be punished. Which might be true, says lead author Erica Chenoweth, but it might not be the best way. “Our argument begins to challenge the very common view that to combat terrorism, you have to meet violence with violence,” she said in the press release.

Okay, but how do you actually study something like that? The research relied on data from the Center for the Study of Terrorism and Response to Terrorism (START) who keeps a Global Terrorism Database (GTD) along with a database from the Government Actions in a Terrorist Environment-Israel (GATE-Israel). Enough acronyms for you yet? The GTD database keeps information about global terrorism, and the GATE-Israel database includes countererrorism strategies that Israel has used against Palestinian enemies. They then ranked those strategies on a seven point scale to assess how peaceful or violent they were.

So, by comparing the two databases - one with terrorism in general in the region, and one with counterterrorism information - the researchers could try and figure out which methods worked best.

What they found was that peaceful tactics like providing social services, withdrawing troops, and releasing prisoners seemed to be more effective than the violent ones such as extending prison sentences, assassination, and deportation.

Of course, both positive and negative reinforcement have their place. The authors point out that punishment is still a useful strategy, and shouldn’t necessarily be eliminated completely, but be balanced, and studied further.

The big takeaway here is that science can, in fact, help us understand how to react to things as non-sensical as terrorism. For example, the study shows that there’s a big difference in the effective responses to criminals and to terrorists. “Strategies that successfully deter common criminals may be ineffective for terrorists,” Chenoweth said in the press release. “This is because terrorists are generally less concerned about being punished and more concerned about their role in ensuring the well-being of their movement and its constituency.” Taking a quantitative approach to anti-terrorism methods could increase effectiveness and help countries spend their money more wisely.

Via: Newswise

Image: gnislew / Flickr

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Rose Eveleth

About Rose Eveleth

Rose Eveleth was a contributing editor for SmartPlanet from 2012 to 2013.

Rose Eveleth

Rose Eveleth

Contributing Editor

Rose Eveleth is a freelance writer, producer and designer based in Brooklyn, New York. Her work has appeared in Scientific American, OnEarth, Discover, New York Times, Story Collider and Radiolab. She holds degrees from the University of California, San Diego and New York University.

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Rose Eveleth

Rose Eveleth

Rose does not have financial holdings that would influence how or what she covers.

she writes for SmartPlanet and is not an employee of CBS.

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+4 Votes
+ -
Disturbing.
Strategies that successfully deter common criminals may be ineffective for terrorists, Chenoweth said in the press release. This is because terrorists are generally less concerned about being punished and more concerned about their role in ensuring the well-being of their movement and its constituency.

And THIS is why you positive reinforcement sounds like utter insanity/stupidity. My guess - and that's all it is; I have no empirical evidence to offer - is that Criminals do wht they do because they don't see an alternative.. as opposed to terrorists, whose actions look much like a Criminal's, but I suspect that the motivation for Terrorists is a desire to strike fear into their victims for the purposes of achieving a directed goal.

When the ends (i.e. acquiring wealth through criminal means - yes, I recognize this is not indicative of ALL crime) are the motivation? Positive reinforcement can probably be will be more effective. When the means (i.e .the criminal act, and not the acquisition of property) are the motivation? Negative reinforcement seems necessary.
Posted by darrylhadfield
31st Jul
0 Votes
+ -
Extend your analogy...
"Criminals do what they do because they don't see an alternative.. as opposed to terrorists, whose actions look much like a Criminal's, but I suspect that the motivation for Terrorists is a desire to strike fear into their victims for the purposes of achieving a directed goal."

You have separated the motivations of criminals and terrorists unnecessarily. Yes, terrorists use "asymetrical" warfare, including the use of terror, BECAUSE they feel they "have to" do it.

Pit the entire U.S. Commercial and Military might against the economy and stability of any nation, and if that nation runs out of options, I guarantee you that "terror" will be at least attempted.

It started with Che, after all, not with Osama. Think about history, colonial and otherwise, and put yourself in their shoes. Oppression only engenders more opposition. The REAL only way out is to honestly attempt to make EVERYONE'S lives better.
Posted by Lightning Joe
1st Aug
+2 Votes
+ -
Positive feedback
Just perfect! Positive feedback for terrorists. You've got to be kidding. And I suppose that by paying them a certain amount each month they will promise not to be terrorist for a month. However, that's only for a month. If you want a promise for a longer period of time you will be required to pay more. The" American Sociological Review" has got to be starving for things to write about.
Posted by mikeandhelen1127
31st Jul
-1 Votes
+ -
These study "results" are bogus.
What the studies really measured were supportive human services, not "rewards."

If someone makes your live better, rather than locking up and killing you for wanting that same rational stability, well OF COURSE you will not be attacking them.

Never forget that a "terrorist" is also a human being.
Posted by Lightning Joe
1st Aug
-1 Votes
+ -
stop the terrorists
I thought you were referring to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and its allies, e.g., IBM, who are removing all semblance of democracy through lobbying and contributions.
Remember, the Supreme Court says they're people too!
Posted by affordablecomputerguy@...
31st Jul
+2 Votes
+ -
It depends
Like all reported studies, there is no definition of terms. What does it mean that positive feedback "seemed to be more effective "?

Did these studies differentiate between the two types of terrorists that exist and weigh their results accordingly??

You have the poor struggling slob that is brainwashed by his religious mentors into believing that dying is more advantageous than living, especially if his family is taken of after his death. This type of person turns economic desparation into religious zealotry. This is the kind of person that can be influenced with the type of positive feedback mentioned in the article. This kind of person also makes up the bulk of the terrorists.

The other terrorist type is completely idealogically driven. They tend to be well-educated. They are either running the organizations, recruiting the slobs or doing the deed, as we saw in 9/11 and Times Square.
Posted by jimmy37
31st Jul
+2 Votes
+ -
Positive Feedbck
Paying off a bully to leave you in peace is pure "intellectual stupidity".
Islamic terrorists, brainwashed slob or zealot, are bleeding the western economies dry as a part of their strategy toward global Islamisation by eradication or complete subjugation then absorbtion of the infidel, a lesson to be learned from past Islamic conquests .
Fourteen hundred years of selective breeding has produced a branch of homo sapiens incapable of challenging their flawed beliefs.
A trial period of say two years where the western economies withdraw their armed forces from un-salvagable countries, then contribute one tenth of their military expenditure to improving living standards in those countries might show the way to proceed, at least it would save more western lives.
Let the internal politics and civil wars of these countries play out to a conclusion then offer diplomatic relations to the winners.
Let our western leaders wake up to the fact that we infidels have had war declared on us and take the lessons from the past that a war only be won by doing overwhelmingly more to the enemy than they do to you.
Appeasing a bully with escalating pay-offs is a stupid Christian tolerance idea.
A quote to me from a "moderate" Islamic, "Tolerance is weakness, which is why we will win"
I would like all appeasers to consider their descendants future and secure it sooner than too late.
Posted by Lenwill7256
31st Jul
0 Votes
+ -
positive reinforcement
when the most recent surge was being bandied about as the afghan answer it seemed that the type of surge needed was volunteers of the peace corps breed with, prudently, sufficient military to protect said volunteers.
it seemed also volunteers were not going to devastate villages and piss off afghans.
Posted by Sunon@...
1st Aug
+1 Vote
+ -
Terrorism
Sounds a little risky - i.e. say a flesh eating virus is in you and you feed it instead of trying to remove it, then what happens? Hummm, the patient dies. Let us progress to criminals who change tactics for money and become terrorists because we give them money and when enough is not ENOUGH they terrorize more and kill. Hummm, the patient dies. I imagine for the greater good - loosing those patients and being held hostage by groups of power hungry slugs is worth the price for their Power struggle?
In my worthless opinion, eradicate these slugs since we will have to take the looses in any event. Why would you want to playcate these worthless beings?
Posted by rjangelino@...
1st Aug
-1 Votes
+ -
You have to get the stresses right.
Israelis oppress Palestinians every day. In PALESTINE, it is the ISRAELIS who are conducting terror operations. Lets expand your too-simple example.

So called "flesh eating microbes" (NOT viruses, never viruses) are NORMAL microbes whose USUAL ecosystem and controls are for some reason out of bounds, leading to an unhealthy runaway condition. The "limiting factors" that usually keep those microbe in check are for some reason not present, whether those factors are competing microbes, or the body's own immune defenses.

Now the MICROBES are not bad, they are simply out of their proper element, and like as not it was OUR effort to be "too clean," that let them get that way by eliminating their proper "enemy" microbes.

In this case, control can be established (but maybe not for this one victim) by re-establishing the proper ecology for that microbe. Proper living conditions == no more threat.

YOUR "prescription," on the other hand, drives the ecosystem even FURTHER out of balance, laying the ground for the next bio-fiasco.

Apply this same philosophy to terrorism, and you will be far ahead.
Posted by Lightning Joe
1st Aug
-1 Votes
+ -
Well, duh...
(not that one would expect the obvious to BE obvious, to Reich Wing Israelis).

Providing the basic amenities of a decent life tamps down terrorism. Who woulda thought?

But note that those actions were not necessarily taken TO deter terror attacks, but simply to act like humans ought to act toward one another. The basic humanity of the act is seen by those affected, and at the same time it relieves the pressures that lead to a desire to take action. OF COURSE violence abates, when people get more pieces of a decent life sent their way.

To wit: the "positive reinforcement" this article sites, as the factor that "encourages" not-acting-out is the BASIC HUMAN ACTION we really ought to take.

There may or may not still be a "behavioral" component to terror response, but these "studies" miss such a factor entirely, for all they might say they are looking for it.

What they are really measuring, is the oppressors for once acting not so oppressively -- a factor that (believe me) is going to be OBVIOUS to the oppressed. One wonders why such a thing is not to be said in Israel today.

And one might also wonder which direction the behavioral manipulation is going here...
Posted by Lightning Joe
1st Aug
-1 Votes
+ -
Wage war
It is only people that wage war against these people that are their targets. If you don't understand that message, you are doomed. I believe that short of stopping the aggression, perhaps convincing the suicide bombers that there is no paradise that they are told they are going to, should be the information that they need to be taught.
Posted by 16Tons
1st Aug
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