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WHO swine flu triage getting more serious

By | November 12, 2009, 8:31 AM PST

When things get too serious it’s time for a laugh.

“Don’t panic. Women, children, red indians, spacemen, and sort of idealized versions of the complete Renaissance man first.”

The news is that the WHO is out with their latest version of H1N1 swine flu triage, and the news is not good.

There is not enough vaccine. Priority must be given to children and pregnant women. Save the antivirals for the pregnant women and give them at the first sign of symptoms.

You can keep up with the latest developments yourself at the WHO’s pages on vaccines and the pandemic flu. An RSS feed is available on the pandemic, so news can reach your desktop immediately.

Oh, and add antibiotics to those antivirals, because the pneumonia can be caused by a bacterial co-infection.

This represents a change in the protocol. Previously use of antivirals was more limited. They were to be given only after H1N1 was proven. The reason for the change is that this flu is more likely to cause deadly viral pneumonia, even in young, healthy people, than seasonal flu.

That is the most chilling conclusion. H1N1 “is not like seasonal influenza.”

With production of vaccines slowed by an insistence on using the same egg-based methods as with seasonal flu, and with an exploding demand causing shortages, people are starting to panic so it’s important to remain upbeat.

But the fact is that similarities between this bug and the 1918 pandemic are growing. The attack on young, healthy people, the co-morbidity of pneumonia, often caused by bacteria, all are familiar to historians of that infection.

It’s not the same bug, but as my dad said it’s close enough for government work.

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Dana Blankenhorn

About Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn was a contributing editor for SmartPlanet from 2009 to 2010.

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn

Contributing Editor, Healthcare

Dana Blankenhorn has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age's "NetMarketing" supplement and founded the Interactive Age Daily for CMP Media. He holds degrees from Rice and Northwestern universities. He is based in Atlanta.

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Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn has been a technology reporter since 1982, a business reporter since 1978, and a writer for as long as he can remember. His Schwab IRA has a few tech stocks in it, most notably some Intel and Applied Materials bought over 10 years ago. But the vast majority of his tiny fortune (emphasis on the word tiny) is invested in mutual funds. He presently writes for no one else but ZDNet, SmartPlanet and himself. But if you've got an opportunity let him know. If he takes the gig he"ll first add it to this disclosure page.

He writes for SmartPlanet and is not an employee of CBS.

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RE: WHO swine flu triage getting more serious
The drugs strategy will never save hundreds of millions of deaths as the drugs will never be available in the quantities required. The 1918 pandemic did its worst in the first 6-months and it takes 6 months just to produce and test an antidote and thereafter start manufacturing.
The only answer is to addres the killer virus at source and never let it happen in the first place.

Dr David Hill
World Innovation Foundation Charity
Bern, Switzerland
Posted by bettysenior
12th Nov 2009
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I want a pony
Tracing the source is impossible at this juncture. Last we heard it was either in Mexico, near Veracruz, or on the U.S.-Mexico border. Mexican authorities denied it originated with them, especially at the giant pork processing facility where the first cases were reported.

They may be liars, but what can you do if they are?
Posted by DanaBlankenhorn
12th Nov 2009
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RE: WHO swine flu triage getting more serious
H1N12 is dangerous, more so than any influenza virus in years, but comparing it with the 1918 epidemic is still greatly overstating the case. That earlier virus was much more deadly.

As for "stopping it at its source", I am amazed anyone would propose such an impossible task. And yes, it really is impossible. Pigs, humans and birds mingle viruses with each other with far too much fluidity in China, it is a political and sociological impossibility to put and end to that. Especially when China still has the only farming industry yielding mass quantities of the plant source (star anise) for Tamiflu (oseltamivir).

More realistic is to place our hopes on a faster development cycle for the vaccine. There are other ways to make a flu virus vaccine, still experimental at the moment, e.g., http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/137953.php

In the meantime, the best we can do it imitate Singapore's President Lee and institute public caning for people who don't use a tissue and wash their hands.
Posted by mejohnsn
13th Nov 2009
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RE: WHO swine flu triage getting more serious
mejohnsn

I am afraid it is the situation of not letting the virus jump into humans and you miss the point completely. In the tropics and other areas of the world where the virus will no doubt emerge and where it is very cold through the night, farmers sleep with pigs and chickens etc, etc, etc. Therefore as the animals, especially pigs are incubators for most of the possible killer viruses, the framers are breathing in night-after-night a concoction of air borne viruses and mixing in the human lungs and throat tract. When man becomes infected with human flu, the whole thing is mixing all together for 8 hours on average. This is one of the main reasons why avian and swine jump into man. Stop these simple things happening and the virus will have very little chance to spread into humans ? you need very close contact for the initial killer virus to become infected into humans in this respect. After that the person infected can easily transmit via chough, sneezes etc, etc to other unsuspecting humans. It is therefore the initial stages that are so vital. The only element therefore needed in many ways, is that we give these millions and millions of farmers, cheap heaters to keep them and their families warm throughout the cold nights. Then they would not sleep with the pigs, chickens et al. Indeed you take the source away from the jump into humans (nightly incubation that goes on every night) and if you know anything about these viruses you will know that they need a mixing vessel where all three viruses exist. Vaccination of the livestock is also one of the other preventative measures. Put these two together plus other simple methods and the virus can hardly jump or exist in humans. Indeed, the transmission is extremely low if at all ? as the problem is eradicated at source and it never happens.

But again because there are not billions in profits for this field work for pharmaceutical corporations, no one wishes to listen, not even politicians as the drug?s lobby group is so powerful that it strikes all other alternatives down ? even if they are the true solution to the problem. It is estimated that all these preventative methods would cost around ?50 billion to put in place and which is a very small price to prevent the hundreds of millions that will die once the real killer virus does raise its ugly head (as it will some day) and the financial costs and damage economically to the world are vast; far , far more than ?50 billion as the whole system could well collapse.

You will never quicken the lead-time quick enough even if you had an antidote that was safe within 1-month. The reason, the logistics in manufacturing and then distribution would take at least 6 months in the quantities needed (billions of doses) to get to the very first few. For if you did not know also, the 1918 Spanish flu that killed between 20 and 100 million did its worst in the first 6-months of the start of the outbreak. Indeed, from week 16 > Week 26. We have been lucky in the near past that the virus have not been easily transmitted to humans. But when the killer virus does appear that can easily jump into humans, the drugs strategy will be absolutely useless. Please use your common sense here for you family?s and loved one?s sake and see clearly that this drugs strategy has not a cat in hell?s chance to work when the thing is with us. Then it will definitely be too late for hundreds of millions of people who will inevitably die ? it may even be over 1 ?billion deaths some people estimate.

Dr David Hill
World Innovation Foundation Charity
Bern, Switzerland
Posted by bettysenior
14th Nov 2009
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RE: WHO swine flu triage getting more serious
mejohnsn

I forgot to finish with that 'Prevention is better than cure and where this has always been the primary consideration of health professionals. This has to be the hallmark statement also to stop the eventual killer virus happening. Why treat the condition when you should never let it start.
Unfortunately we have thrown this well established medical understanding of human health out of the window.

Dr David Hill
Posted by bettysenior
14th Nov 2009
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The 1918 Flu
The 1918 flu appeared before we had antibiotics. It appeared in a time of world war, so for millions sterile conditions did not exist. We know that the 1918 flu killed mostly through biotic infections that came in the flu's wake.

Today we have antibiotics, even antivirals. We can get all sufferers in the developed world into a safe, sterile environment quickly, and many of those outside the developed world.

The bug itself may be no less or more deadly than the 1918 bug yet carry exponentially fewer deaths thanks to what we've learned these last 91 years.
Posted by DanaBlankenhorn
15th Nov 2009
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RE: WHO swine flu triage getting more serious
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24th Feb 2010
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