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The biggest winner in health reform

By | August 20, 2010, 5:57 AM PDT

The biggest winners out of health reform may come from an industry you never heard of.

Predictive modeling.

The idea has been around for 20 years. Compare the risks of patients, or the costs of clinics, in an effort to lower both. Collect the data, analyze it, then act on the analysis.

Verisk Health is in this business. Much of their work in the past was done with health insurance companies, and chief medical officer Nathan Gunn (right) admitted that in the old fee-for-service era it wasn’t working.

Tiering physicians into high-cost and low-cost networks did not work. Cutting off patients based on risk assessments proved to be political poison.

But capitation, the change from a fee-for-service to a fee-per-patient model, changes everything, he said. Capitation is the health reform the insurance industry wanted, and got, in the bill that passed Congress earlier this year.

Now health plans can visit physicians and, clinician-to-clinician, discuss ways of cutting costs based on data. Those savings can go to the bottom lines of both health plans and clinics, sometimes in the form of bonuses.

Health plans also have an incentive to talk to patients, based on their profiles, with real incentives for changing behaviors to habits that keep people out of the hospital.

Predictive modeling can also bring value to Electronic Medical Records (EMRs), Dunn said. Combining EMRs and billing data creates a “complete information system that helps physicians do risk management.”

Risk management is the key concept. Insurers have done this for decades with commercial accounts. It’s why your car insurance company offers a “good driver discount.”

By combining multiple data sources, predictive modeling companies like Verisk can now work with hospitals and health plans to deliver the equivalent of Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) to small clinics.

The money saved can increase margins for the health plan, increase the income of the physicians, improve the health of the patients, and, in time, even bend the health care cost curve, which has been skewed by chronic conditions like diabetes that mean more cash in a fee-for-service model but no longer do in a fee-for-patient model.

All this spells opportunity for Verisk. Their data now has value. Their consulting opportunities now increase. Instead of being the “bad guys” who try to force patients and doctors to change their habits, they’re now the “good guys” who help both make money.

Which could make these database-driven services the biggest winners from health reform.

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Dana Blankenhorn

About Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn was a contributing editor for SmartPlanet from 2009 to 2010.

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn

Contributing Editor, Healthcare

Dana Blankenhorn has written for the Chicago Tribune, Advertising Age's "NetMarketing" supplement and founded the Interactive Age Daily for CMP Media. He holds degrees from Rice and Northwestern universities. He is based in Atlanta.

Follow him on Twitter.

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn

Dana Blankenhorn has been a technology reporter since 1982, a business reporter since 1978, and a writer for as long as he can remember. His Schwab IRA has a few tech stocks in it, most notably some Intel and Applied Materials bought over 10 years ago. But the vast majority of his tiny fortune (emphasis on the word tiny) is invested in mutual funds. He presently writes for no one else but ZDNet, SmartPlanet and himself. But if you've got an opportunity let him know. If he takes the gig he"ll first add it to this disclosure page.

He writes for SmartPlanet and is not an employee of CBS.

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0 Votes
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health insurance
You guys should stop complaining cuz one the health care we
have now isnt as good as it was supposed to be. also the law has
just been signed give it a try u guys are too hard on democrats
they went to college and we voted for most of these people.so if u
want to say u have the right to choose tell that to ur congress
men or state official. as for obama people are just tryin to make it
look like america made a mistake he has done things to help us
and we had a full 8 years of a terrible president and i will be so as
happy as ever when a obama fixes bush's mistakes. You can find
full medical coverage at the lowest price from http://bit.ly/9fDY7U
obama has to put up with the wo0rld judging his every move and
trying to fix the mess we are in we are lucky anyone wants to be
our president. STOP COMPLAINING AND GIVE HIM A BREAK. i
wanna see one of yall do what he sas done. some people are just
so ignorant.
Posted by peggybrad19
20th Aug 2010
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peggybrad19
This is not meant as a political story, or a political point.
Predictive modeling has been sold to insurance companies for
many years. The point made to me yesterday was the market for
it improves as incentives for saving money grow.

The real problem resulting in reform was this lack of incentives for
hospitals or clinics to get more work out of a dollar. All efficiency
did before was cut their sales. Now they can use predictive
modeling to increase their margins.
Posted by DanaBlankenhorn
20th Aug 2010
0 Votes
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Toooo Funny
Gotta love the "Don't mess with Saint Obama" rant, especially
since you're generally so far left you think you're in center field.
Apparently this commenter doesn't read your columns all that
often.

Still, I have to ask - If predictive technologies really are "all that",
they would have been used before. The statement "All efficiency
did before was cut their sales." shows an utter lack of knowledge
(or is it willful blindness?) of the industry at a depth that's really
quite shocking. Hospitals country wide are bleeding red ink and
efficiencies are very high on their priority list.
Posted by aureolin
20th Aug 2010
0 Votes
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Winners and Losers
Biggest winners in the totalitarian health care mess:

Obama
Progressive/Socialists/Communists/
Those who want a free ride
Those people who are greedy by wanting others to pay their way
Unions
People who do not want to take responsibility for themselves
The AMA
Big Pharma

Biggest Losers:

Those who believe in freedom
Businesses
Those who take personal responsibility for their actions
Those who believe the framers of the US Constitution meant what they said
People who collect and buy and sell gold
Alternative heath care providers
Tanning Salons
Any company especially small companies making anything that the FDA deems to be a medical device... including but not limited to: wheelchairs, canes
People on medicare
Seniors
The US Taxpayer
Anyone looking for a job

Immediate are people who are looking for insurance for their children.

I say it again, anyone who demands that someone else pay their way is to be laughed at for their greed. Go out an earn it yourself. Cut back on going to Olive Garden or wherever every night, pack a lunch instead of eating out, take public transportation, sell your house, don't go to so many movies, stop cable/satellite tv,


AND BUY YOUR OWN INSURANCE OUT OF YOUR POCKET if you want insurance.
Posted by Albee_Freeoneday
20th Aug 2010
0 Votes
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
Many, many countries have state managed health care plans. You
will be lucky to see it happen in America, as there are too many fear
mongers' out there spouting a bunch of half-truths. Too bad. What
they don't realize is that there are great economies to be had in
volume if properly set up.
Posted by 16Tons
20th Aug 2010
0 Votes
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
With capitation, it pays healthcare providers to keep you healthy. When you are responsible for your own health costs, it pays healthcare providers to keep you sick. Do you want to pay to be healthy, or do you want to pay to be sick? Do you want to support a business that makes money out of you being sick, or one that loses its money, not yours, when you are sick? So you want insurance. Insurance that cannot walk away when you get sick, and that you can still afford when you are sick and off work. Don't you?
Posted by chris.cowsley@...
20th Aug 2010
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
16Tons

"Many, many countries have state managed health care plans."

Many, many countries are socialist, with government controlled health, and other. They have higher unemployment than the US currently has, the have less freedom than the USA has. SO how is it better?

Does requiring everyone to have health insurance automatically eradicate disease?
Does it automatically eradicate automobile and other accidents requiring a visit to a hospital?

Well... does it?

Does requiring someone by force or coercion to pay for someone else's irresponsible behavior eradicate disease and accidents?

Of course it does not. And that is the point.

Soon, you will have the US government going around telling everyone how much of what they can eat and drink. What type and how much exercise they can partake in or must or they will be arrested.

You will have government bureaucrats running every little part of your life, not to improve it... but to control you.

That IS the future of democare.
Posted by Albee_Freeoneday
20th Aug 2010
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Part II
If someone chooses to buy their own health insurance, fine.
If someone else chooses to go out drinking every night fine. Just don't expect OTHER's TO PAY!

That is the whole point of freedom. You make your choices, live your life, and accept the consequences of your decisions.

If a person is too afraid to do so... they deserve to be laughed at, and pitied.

A person who IS RESPONSIBLE accepts the consequences of their actions.
They DO NOT blame others. They DO NOT demand others pay their way, because they are not greedy.

Someone envious of someone else who happens to have more money or wealth, and demands that person who is more well off (maybe due to them holding down 2 jobs?) pay for the person with less, is greedy pig.

Go out and earn as much as you want. And live within your means.
Posted by Albee_Freeoneday
20th Aug 2010
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
Hmm ....

I don't want to pay for the recklessness of others. If they trash their health that's their problem. But if they are infectious, then it's mine too, and I certainly back the concept of social medicine to keep infectious diseases out of the community. Socially funded medicine for this purpose makes sense to me. Those wanting more than a social service can pay for it.

But it is a very fuzzy grey line.
Posted by chris.cowsley@...
20th Aug 2010
0 Votes
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
Predictive modeling. Hmm, sounds good.

Total Life or whatever it is called is related to this. In short, your
life has a dollar value attached to it.

Predictive modeling in a free market can be a very good thing.
Help keep our costs down. By avoiding waste, we can do more
with less (and perhaps even more for others too).

Total Life or whatever it is called, bad! This is a government
regulated concept. In a free market, we personally attempt to
decide what we feel our life is worth. Some of us are broke, so
someone like me doesn't have the money but we might be
fortunate if our health insurance covers what we cannot. And if it
doesn't, then maybe someone else will be charitable. But in the
idea of "total life" my life has a dollar value. If I cost too much to
keep alive, then I will not receive any more medical treatment
than what my life is determined to be worth. And while "total life" is
often billeted as being charitable to the old, infirm, the sick, and
the otherwise afflicted, it is actually part of what we often call
"death panels." In short, if you aren't "worth" saving, then you
don't receive treatment. However, in a free market health care,
this sort of system is nearly impossible to enforce because as
long as you have money than someone is sure to be willing to
take your money and attempt to treat you. So these systems,
while great systems in theory for controlling medical costs, can
only work under government regulation.

So, predictive modeling in itself does not bother me. Predictive
modeling under a government managed health care system
bothers me very very much.
Posted by dedrizen
20th Aug 2010
0 Votes
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dedrizen
Total Life is seldom seen any more. The term is universal life. IT has
a savings component. When done through a mutual company it can
be very profitable for the insured. When done through a stock
company, not so much.
Posted by DanaBlankenhorn
20th Aug 2010
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
I agree 16Tons... the said thing is that people like Albee_freeoneday are just like the people in Britain during the peak of Britain's glory days. They liked what "they" had and didn't go along with the progress that was taking place in the rest of the world. In the end Britain lost out and is no longer a leader in the world. The same will happen to the US, unfortunately. I guess the majority believes that anything that they aren't used to will not work, period. I suppose thinking outside the box is only done in other countries, therefore I only see gloom and doom for this country, sad to say...
Posted by pkoedijk
20th Aug 2010
0 Votes
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And the biggest loser is.....
The patient followed by the hospitals and the doctors. This isn't reform. It won't bend the cost curve. Already premiums for people are rising 30-40%. Healthcare decisions are between my doctor and I.

Join the Obamacare Class Action Suit ! I have. Twenty some states have filed against this piece of crap. The Supreme Court will look at this. It will be shot down. http://www.obamacareclassaction.com/

The majority of Americans did not want this. It should of been done differently. Repeal ! I don't care what the other socialist countries are doing. We are the world's largest economy for a reason and government had nothing to do with it.

If this healthcare was so good our politicians would be in the same plan as us but alas we are of unwashed hands.
Posted by pizzaman7
20th Aug 2010
0 Votes
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
Hmm, I think most of the message from peggybrad19 is just cover for the line:

You can find full medical coverage at the lowest price from ...

IOW, spam.
Posted by riverat1
20th Aug 2010
0 Votes
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
chris.cowsley - in your post (#9), you stated:
"But if they are infectious, then it's mine too, and I certainly back the concept of social medicine to keep infectious diseases out of the community."
Considering the infectious nature of HIV and AIDS, perhaps we should isolate these people to protect the rest of us. Maybe we can call this isolation camp "New Aushwitz".
Do I have the right to tell any one of you here what food you can buy, what car, what house, ETC.? Of course not, AND NEITHER DOES THE GOVERNMENT.
Posted by JTF243@...
20th Aug 2010
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
The Insurance industry are the real winners. An unnecessary middleman but what else can be expect from an industry that has roots in organized crime. Making money from sick people and we call ourselves civilized. What a joke! We have production line medicine now like other so called "Socialist Nations". Big Pharma reps telling doctors what to use for their patients. Don't say it isn't happening either, i.e., "Money Talks: Profits Before Patient Safety" and there are plenty of other testimonials. Besides, the predictive modeling has been used in the medical-insurance business for years. If a patient is old-sick and has no MONEY then they are are secretly written off. Sometimes I am ashamed to call myself a member of the human race when reading some of the comments because of what so called enlighten people do to other people.
Posted by pete_evangelist@...
21st Aug 2010
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
As someone living in what you guys probably call a socialist country (New Zealand) I just have to smile at this debate. As a country we get better health outcomes than the US at a fraction of the cost. (Lower unemployment too!). Part of the driver has been the use of capitation because it does work to make us to ask - what are we getting for money, could we get a better result some other way? Looked through this lens large amounts of money that get spent on care are simply waste. Predictive modelling - understanding the patterns of likely health service usage or, from a personal perspective, your likely health trajectory, is going to become a critical tool for the future, the earlier we can act to change that trajectory the better the outcomes at a lower cost.
Posted by philip.gandar@...
21st Aug 2010
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
Predictive modelling seems to only be useful in healthcare, when determining what care to ration to others.

Drugs and procedures will naturally drop in price as companies recoup R&D investments, and the market allows competition. Since neither approaches are allowed in a socialist country, rationing is the ultimate outcome.

#17: I suggest that you think about what you refer to as "waste". If it is bureaucratic paperwork... then I agree. If it is rationing healthcare for others because their life's ROI doesn't justify it... then I strongly disagree.
Posted by dominigan
24th Aug 2010
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dominigan
Rationing? I am very, very tired of this conservative canard that
the health reform plan promotes "rationing," as though the
current system does not.

The current system does promote rationing. It rations care so that
increasing numbers of consumers are priced out of the market
and denied it. There are no incentives in the present system for
efficiency or best practices. It made much more economic sense
for insurers to push patients out the door -- to ration on behalf of
the rich -- rather than push doctors to cut costs.

What we have now is rationing by income. What we'll have is
rationing based on cost-effectiveness. They are both rationing,
but one is blatantly unfair to the middle class and the other isn't.
Posted by DanaBlankenhorn
24th Aug 2010
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People are happiest when they make their own choices
@DanaBlankenhorn: You may not have noticed it while advocating all manner of ways to make people's choices for them, but people are happiest when they make their own choices, not when they have them imposed on them. Sure, health care is all about rationing no matter how you do it, but when people have a choice in their own health care they tend to be much happier.

From personal experience I've seen the extreme frustration of people who have a life-threatening condition and can't get treatment for it in the "system". It won't matter if you replace the private insurance company in the "system" with a public option, the stress will still be exactly the same. There are just as many (if not more) horror stories about Medicare and the VA as there are over any private insurance company. Do you really think just telling people you've made the best choice for them will make all the difference?

There's a reason why Jefferson put the phrase "Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness" into the Declaration of Independence. He knew something you do not -- that only each individual person can determine what makes him happiest. You talk about the need to improve the quality of life, but that's pointless if it doesn't increase happiness. And once again, only each individual can truly decide for himself just what happiness is.

In the real world, some people will choose the happiness that (over)eating gives them over the possible troubles that come later on. After all, what's the point of a longer life if you are miserable? Is eating what to someone seems bland and tasteless food all their life worth a few years at the end? And who are you or anybody else to make this choice for them?

You talk about "educating" people so they will make the "right" choice. But really it's just the same kind of in-your-face coercive tactics you accuse the right of. Let people know the facts, sure. But if they take the facts and make a different decision than you would, don't cram your world view down their throats. It just shows a total lack of respect for other people.
Posted by zackers
25th Aug 2010
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@zackers
What was the reason those people couldn't get 'treatment for it in the ""system"'? Was it their insurance company refused to cover it? Or was it they couldn't afford to pay for it? Was there more demand for the treatment than the available resources could handle? Or was it something that just wasn't offered?

You talk about horror stories from the VA & Medicare but you should know that surveys find the VA has the highest level of customer satisfaction of any medical system in the country and Medicare is #2 in that regard. It's easy to find anecdotes about when a system breaks down but that's meaningless until you systematically compare it to others.

You know, my happiness in part depends on other peoples happiness. My happiness depends in part on how healthy (and I'm not talking just about physical health here) the society I live in is. You may think it all is up to you alone but without the efforts of thousands of other people you wouldn't have the life you have.
Posted by riverat1
26th Aug 2010
0 Votes
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zackers
The subject of this thread, and this story, is the improved outlook for
companies in the business of predictive health. It's about a market,
a data-and-software market, which can now provide more value,
enabling insurers and the government to provide more care to more
people at lower cost than before, because insurers now have
financial incentives to lower those costs and save that money.

Socialism and freedom aren't at issue here.
Posted by DanaBlankenhorn
26th Aug 2010
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
Dana, good article and a good read. The problem seems to be that because education has been dummied down those on the right leaning isle can't understand your concepts and/or articles unless explained to them on white boards by Glen Beck and faux news.
They see everything as an attack on their rights and anybody else that disagrees doesn't have any rights. You can try and reason with these people but you can't reach the unreasonable. They can't see the forest for the trees, so keep on posting your wonderful articles and ignore the rabble. Like my grandpa used to say, 'they kick if they had both legs off.'
Posted by red bandit1
26th Aug 2010
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red bandit1
I am far more sympathetic to today's conservatives than they
think I am, or perhaps than you are.

Consider. Their entire world view has been shot full of holes. It's
been destroyed by events -- Iraq, Katrina, the financial
meltdown.. It's a lot like what happened to New Deal liberals in the
early years of the Nixon era, those who had a mild sympathy
toward some of the things hippies were saying.

At that time the Democratic party split in two -- there was a
professional party and a leftist party. Eventually the left got its
man in George McGovern, and were it not for Watergate we
might not have seen another Democratic President from that day
to this.

So if some Republicans want tea, I say drink up. Marijuana was
called tea back in the day. Glenn Beck is just as hallucinatory as
any pothead from 40 years ago. And just as likely to win a
majority to his side.
Posted by DanaBlankenhorn
26th Aug 2010
0 Votes
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
Thanks for the valuable post. You have increased my area of knowledge. I liked your post. If you need any assistance regarding "Predictive modeling" then we are here to lend a hand in your support.
http://www.indicia-geomarketing.com
Posted by GavinMartin
7th Nov 2010
0 Votes
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RE: The biggest winner in health reform
@JTF243
I think you missed my point.
Contribute to the cost of eradicating infectious diseases is not the same as making choices for others. It is about giving them a choice they otherwise would not have.
Requiring them to take that choice is a different debate - as is the requirement for citizens to adopt any other socially responsible choice. Sometimes we enact legislation to enforce it, mostly we don't.
Posted by chris.cowsley@...
13th Feb 2011
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