There is a lot of confusion on this — much of it deliberate — so let’s describe briefly how health reform will actually happen, according to the Administration.
The House will pass the Senate plan.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been cagey about the whip count., Soimetimes she says “:we will have the votes,” sometimes (as today) “we have the votes.”
The count is unclear because the House bill passed with a bare majority, and that only because of the Stupak Amendment, which keeps those who buy health coverage in the market from also buying abortion coverage.
Stupak is not in the Senate bill.
Only after the House votes do we get to the dreaded “reconciliation,” a process also used to let people keep buying into their employee plans after they leave a job. (The R in the so-called COBRA Act that allows this stands for reconciliation. It was passed in 1985, under President Reagan, with a Republican Senate.)
The idea is that the Senate will pass the 11 pages of amendments offered by President Obama at last week’s summit on a majority vote, in order to reconcile differences with what the House wants. The House will then pass the amendments and the President will sign both bills.
This is where it gets tricky. About 30 Democratic Senators have already said they want a public option in the reconciliation bill. This is not what the President proposed and exposes the fact that, in reconciliation, the whole bill is really re-opened.,
But many of Pelosi’s anticipated votes for the Senate package are based on the idea that reconciliation — a move toward their version of the bill — will follow quickly — and will deliver a bill they like. The Senate does not go to the bathroom quickly and Republicans have promised to use every procedural move at their command to stop it.
The result is uncertainty, the kind that puts the rest of the President’s agenda on hold and gives everyone that Perils of Pauline feeling. But what we’ve learned in the past 40 years, whether in the Bush tax cuts, the Clinton tax package, the Reagan program, or even the Nixon years, is that nothing important in Washington ever really happens without that feeling.
That tension is just the feeling of history being made.