The National Center for Atmospheric Research developed a new wind forecasting system to help utility Xcel Energy squeeze more energy from turbines. The upshot? The system, which is 35 percent more accurate, has allowed Xcel to use less coal and natural gas and save millions of dollars in the process.
Xcel uses power generated by wind farms across its service area including Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, Texas and Wisconsin. One of its biggest challenges is accurately predicting when and how strongly winds will blow at these locations, said William Mahoney, an NCAR program director who is overseeing the project. The forecasting tool basically takes the guesswork out of the equation, which means utilities like Xcel can rely less on fossil fuels without worrying about disruptions to the power supply.
NCAR entered into a contract with Xcel in 2009 to develop a better forecasting system. The new system uses computer models and detailed observations of atmospheric conditions to provide high-resolution wind energy forecasts that are updated with new information every 15 minutes. Xcel is able to anticipate the amount of energy produced by the wind farms in its coverage area and power down traditional coal and natural gas plants when possible. The utility saved $6 million in 2010 using the forecasting system.
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