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Did ‘cap and trade’ go up in smoke?

By | March 3, 2010, 12:53 PM PST

A broad cap-and-trade plan to reduce carbon emissions has been pronounced dead by one of the senators pushing hardest for it.

But by “dead,” Republican Lindsey Graham of South Carolina may have meant re-branded.

While cap-and-trade promoters — who include Senators John Kerry and Joseph Lieberman — originally touted the system as a way to mitigate climate change, Sen. Graham is now reframing the effort as a business model for creating jobs, competing with China, and cleaning the air.

Called “cap and tax” by some opponents, the economic mechanism is meant to combat climate change by setting a price on carbon, with companies buying and selling permits to pollute. The number of permits would decrease over time, encouraging companies to decrease their carbon output. Incentives to implement or create better technologies for pollution and energy use might also result.

Today in Greenwire, Sen. Graham said:

“I have no problem with trading as long as you don’t devastate the economy. This is what solved acid rain. Some people on my side say, ‘Just create incentives.’ I say that’s opening up the Treasury to every group in the country. I want to set emission standards and let the best technology win.”

Weeks may pass before we know how substantial any changes to the carbon trading system might be.

One possible reconstruction of the bill might differentiate between the utility and manufacturing sectors. Manufacturers may have a few years before the pricing standards are imposed, in order to allow more affordable energy sources to become available.

However it is labeled or recast, supporters of the legislation hope the new approach will engage senators on the issue and tip the scales toward the 60 votes needed to pass the bill.

Cap and trade is not alive yet, but it still seems to be kicking.

Related:

Image: eflon/Flickr

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Melissa Mahony

About Melissa Mahony

Melissa Mahony was a contributing editor for SmartPlanet from 2010 to 2011.

Melissa Mahony

Melissa Mahony

Contributing Editor, Energy

Melissa Mahony has written for Scientific American Mind, Audubon Magazine, Plenty Magazine and LiveScience. Formerly, she was an editor at Wildlife Conservation magazine. She holds degrees from Boston College and New York University's Science, Health, and Environmental Reporting Program. She is based in New York.

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Melissa Mahony

Melissa Mahony

Melissa does not have financial holdings that would influence how or what she covers. She currently works for the Wildlife Conservation Society as an editor. Should Melissa cover a topic in which the WCS is involved, she will disclose this fact in her writing.

She writes for SmartPlanet and is not an employee of CBS.

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+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
I hope so. if you think our economy is bad now. you haven,t seen what cap and tax will do to it.
Posted by nshubin1@...
4th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
The devastation of credibility that a cabal of climate scientists brought down on their heads has revealed that the science is NOT settled.

Public policy such as cap and trade/tax with huge economic dislocations based on fuzzy science is misguided.
Posted by dusher
4th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
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1200-plus pages of special interest giveaways and punishment: RIP
Not to mention extra empowerment for lobbyists and their captives. All for a bill that even the advocates of anthropogenic global warming admit will only affect the climate by hundredths of a degree.

With real unemployment still hovering over 10% and no end in sight, the final nail in Waxman-Markey was the loss of Ted Kennedy's seat in the Senate.

Of course, the 800lbs gorilla you failed to mention is the toxic waste spill also known as "climategate", which pretty much wiped away the popular (but only within political and media circles) notion that the "science was settled" regarding CO2 and "climate change".

The sooner we get his mess behind us, we can then focus on some real energy and pollution issues.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
4th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
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Hear, hear!
Worst of all, it may now be too late to do a truly objective comparison of the climate to decades or centuries past. The liars at East Anglia's Climate Research Unit destroyed the original empirical data as part of their data normalization process -- the biggest possible no-no you can make as a "scientist". Thanks, guys!
Posted by DittoHeadStL
4th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Hear, hear!
"The liars at East Anglia's Climate Research Unit destroyed the original empirical data..."

What a pile of crap. They deleted some data that was received from other sources when they no longer had a use for it. The original sources still have it. They didn't destroy anything that was not reproduceable. If they had any idea that a bunch of idiots would raise such a furor over it in the future you can bet they would have kept it.
Posted by riverat1
4th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
In responding to reiverat1 - If the data is still available, please point us all to the various sources. Andy by the way, why would they dump data that supports their views? As an IT professional I am keenly aware that the cost of store vast amounts of data has dropped dramatically over the last five years (example a 1TB drive for less than $200).
Posted by frivenburg@...
4th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
Riverat is right...
...they didn't destroy the data. They only destroyed the data that they cherry-picked for use in their models, and would have exposed the manipulations required to come to their bogus conclusions.

Any of my clients (mostly small businesses) can pull up detail or transactions that support any decision made for the last 25+ years. And yet these people with millions in government funding who wished to fundamentally alter the the economy of the entire planet couldn't be bothered to do the same.

The reality is that they knew their work would not stand up to any peer review process beyond the one organized with their cronies.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
4th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
WHO BENEFITS FROM CAP & TRADE: STATUS QUO FOR OPEC

Have you ever wondered how Dubai is able to afford creating man made islands off their coast? The largest transfer of wealth in the history of the world began after the 1973 oil embargo.

The United States agreed to transfer jobs and technology to developing countries under INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT Algiers Declaration Algiers, March 1975.

A major portion of the planned or new petrochemical complexes, oil refineries and fertilizer plants be built in the territories of OPEC Member Countries

Yet America has natural gas and coal in abundance and can create good paying jobs, eliminate dependence on foreign oil and stop sending billions to countries that sponsor terrorism. Every billion in trade deficit equals 13000 jobs lost. Washington should keep money, technology and jobs in the US by reducing the trade imbalance.

There is a political STD called Gonorrhea Lectim that runs rampant in the US. The cure is VotemOutOfThere!
Posted by Repeal
4th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
POLITICS BEHIND CAP & TRADE
THE RICH WILL GET RICHER
Cap & Trade is being imposed on the world because it creates a multi-trillion dollar commodity market for hot air. The beneficiaries are the rich special interest who will get wealthier setting up and trading the new commodities market.
But citizens will pay more taxes to operate new regulatory bureaucracies and more for goods as business passes the cost along.
TROUBLING IMPLEMENTATION QUESTIONS
How many CO2 credits will be distributed world wide? $13 - 15 trillion? How will the process be audited to prevent outright fraud?
Who gets to decide how many CO2 credits each business or person should receive?
Should sovereign nations or the UN tax this new one world currency?
If a business in California closes and sells CO2 credits to a company in England, will a new California company be required to purchase credits before opening?
Will multi-national companies export new construction and jobs to 3rd world non-subscribing countries? Or will people of the Amazon miss out on new opportunities because an American company bought thousands of acres to be left unexploited to acquire carbon sequestration credits.
Does a growing population mean a lower standard of living and reduced CO2 allotments for each new person or business?
Should children be allowed to inherit their parents CO2 permits? Should couples be limited to two children?

WHAT ENTITY SHOULD DETERMINE EARTH?S CO2 CARRYING CAPACITY
I prefer the God of my Fathers decide rather than scientists seeking government grant money.

Genesis 9:7 As for you, be fruitful and multiply; Populate the earth abundantly and multiply in it.
Job 38:4 Where were you when I laid the foundation of the earth? Tell Me, if you have understanding,

Job 15:7 Were you the first man to be born, Or were you brought forth before the hills?
Psalm 104:5 He established the earth upon its foundations, So that it will not totter forever and ever.
Proverbs 8:29 When He set for the sea its boundary So that the water would not transgress His command, When He marked out the foundations of the earth;
Proverbs 30:4 Who has ascended into heaven and descended? Who has gathered the wind in His fists? Who has wrapped the waters in His garment? Who has established all the ends of the earth? What is His name or His son's name? Surely you know!

IS MAN CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING

If so how do you explain the age of dinosaurs? Fred Flintstone must have had one hell of a fleet of Hummers!

But according to science, Earth has had multiple tropical and glacial ages before man. So historically isn?t global warming a cyclical event more affected by sun spot cycles?

And NASA says oceans are cooling since 2003.

Furthermore, the most prevalent hot house gas is water vapor. Should citizens of earth try to stop the rain cycle?

COMMON SENSE

Poverty is the worst form of pollution. Why are the undeveloped nations in Copenhagen demanding redistribution of wealth from the developed nations? And who will these nations turn to when America is destroyed?
Posted by Repeal
4th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
Freivenburg, I don't have references to the specific data that East Anglia dumped and I'm not going to take the time to find them but they are available at the various meteorological services around the world where they got them. But the data you are referring to is but a small part of the total climate dataset ("less than 5% of the original station data") and not crucial to the overall conclusions. Also, the data was thrown out in the 1980's so what it costs to store data in the last 10 years is irrelevant. There's been plenty of science done since then. There are links more climate data and model code than you could review in probably a decade on this page: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/data-sources/
Posted by riverat1
4th Mar 2010
-1 Votes
+ -
Realclimate,org? Yeah, that's a reliable source!
From Michael Mann, as featured in the East Anglia CRU e-mails:

Anyway, I wanted you guys to know that you're free to use RC in any way you think would be helpful. Gavin and I are going to be careful about what comments we screen through, and we'll be very careful to answer any questions that come up to any extent we can. On the other hand, you might want to visit the thread and post replies yourself. We can hold comments up in the queue and contact you about whether or not you think they should be screened through or not, and if so, any comments you'd like us to include.

You're also welcome to do a followup guest post, etc. think of RC as a resource that is at your disposal to combat any disinformation put
forward by the McIntyres of the world. Just let us know. We'll use our best discretion to make sure the skeptics dont'get to use the RC
comments as a megaphone...

http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=622&filename=1139521913.txt

Realclimate.org is little more than the Internet propaganda arm of the AGW junk scientists. Considering realclimate.org as a honest site on climate science is no better than relying upon Al Gore for your science.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
4th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
John, The page I pointed to is simply links to many of the various data sources (both raw and processed) and model code from around the world used by climate scientists. If you want to discredit the science then you need to discredit their data and models and conveniently it's almost all out there for your perusal. Instead we get all sorts of accusations about motives and malfeasance that inevitably found to be baseless when investigated but when the occasional real error is found it is quickly admitted and corrected by the scientists.

I don't have any problem with Michael Mann's statement. Realclimate is a site for real climate scientists to present their findings to a wider audience and to answer as Mann said the disinformation being perpetrated by others. The screening simply keeps the denialosphere from overrunning the site with useless noise. A recent response by Gavin Schmidt to one message they did let through puts it pretty succinctly:

"The idea that thousands of scientists have conspired over decades, roping in all the National Academies and the relevant societies, to impose their vegetarian/socialist/eco-fascist dystopia on the world is self-evidently ridiculous. If you disagree, I think the prospect for any dialog between us is dim. - gavin"
Posted by riverat1
5th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
But, of course, we're the superstitious Neandertals ....
... who cling to God, guns, and the Constitution, believe that the LHC is going to destroy the earth, ...
Posted by Gaius_Maximus
6th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
No, "realclimate.org" is a propaganda site...
...edited by Mann and his cohorts. "Real climate scientists" would not
feel the need to edit the posting of other "real climate scientists"
who do not agree with them.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
8th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
John, There have been any number of responses from contrarian climate scientists such as Richard Lindtzen, Roger Pielke Sr., Roy Spencer and Doug Christie among others that have not been edited or screened by the people running RealClimate.org. It's the people who try to argue non-scientifically using absurd arguments that the folks I mentioned above wouldn't even try to use that get screened.
Posted by riverat1
8th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
>>> I don't have any problem with Michael Mann's statement. Realclimate is a
>>> site for real climate scientists to present their findings to a wider
>>> audience and to answer as Mann said the disinformation being perpetrated
>>> by others. The screening simply keeps the denialosphere from overrunning
>>> the site with useless noise. A recent response by Gavin Schmidt to one
>>> message they did let through puts it pretty succinctly:

Of course you wouldn't have a problem with it. It's your side "hogging the microphone", as it were. Which is OK, it's their site. They can do whatever they please with it. But, don't pretend it's "fair and balanced", or impartial, or of much use in settling a complex scientific issue or doing much of anything other than flogging its owner's propaganda. Personally, I only go there when I want a cheap laugh. (Wow, they were still trying to pass off that Hockey Stick the last time I looked-- ROTFLMAO.)

>>> "The idea that thousands of scientists have conspired over decades, roping
>>> in all the National Academies and the relevant societies, to impose their
>>> vegetarian/socialist/eco-fascist dystopia on the world is self-evidently
>>> ridiculous. If you disagree, I think the prospect for any dialog between
>>> us is dim.- gavin"

No dimmer than you are, Gavin.

It didn't even need to start out as a conscious conspiracy. Maybe it did and maybe it didn't. Many things that look like conspiracies actually organized spontaneously because of people of similar mindset responding to the same stimuli (each independent of the others) and coming to the same conclusions and taking similar actions. Only later, when they realize that they've stumbled into simething good, do they start comparing notes and start taking steps to protect the positions they've attained.

Is it such a stretch to posit that a government, any government, is going to be a magnet for people who have personality traits that make them want to run other peoples' lives?

And is it such a stretch to imagine that once these folks have gained control of a pot of money with which to fund research, that they will greatly prefer to fund research that shows a dire and immediate necessity for them (the politicians and bureaucrats, that is) to take ever increasing control of once-prosperous nation's economies to research that suggests otherwise?

And once some "scientists" (they stopped being scientists when they started falsifying and destroying data) have decided to attract government funding by toeing (and helping to concoct) the Party line, and have started cranking out the sort of systematically manipulated "data" we've been seeing out of NASA Goddard and the East Anglia CRU lately, is it such a stretch to notice that they have a vested (and lucrative) interest in shouting down anyone who dares to present contrary evidence.

Pretty soon, the field of climatology is dominated by those "state-kept schoolmen" (to borrow a phrase from Kipling), everyone else has long since been marginalized or driven out entirely, they aren't seen on the boards of the vetted journals these days. "After all", the Warmists argue, "if they were any good, they would be getting the big grants, like we are." (Which argument sidesteps the real issue, which is, of course, "If they were saying what the granters-of-grants wanted to hear, they would be getting the big grants like we are." And so a dodgy theory, supported by falsified and cherry-picked "evidence" becomes dogma.

The CRU hackers did the world a service by throwing a wrench into the Augean stability of the warmists' racket. The problem with a conspracy is that like any secret, it can be kept by two people only if one of them is dead.

Add to this things like the spectacle of Al Gore flying around in about the most polluting and least fuel efficient private jet there is and the gridlocks (both aircraft and surface vehicles) at the Copenhagen airport. Because these people are all too important to fly in on commercial flights, don't you know. And many, many other hypocrisies, large and small. Since you clearly haven't figured it out, it's all about getting (and keeping) us peasants in line while our betters par-tay on our dime. And, of course, it MUST be done RIGHT NOW! (Or else, the marks might have time to think it through. Or someone might have time to hack our email.) I'm afraid that it takes more than the aforementioned inventor of the Internet and a bevy of Hollywood airheads claiming that the science of global warming is settled, and that that nasty, greedy western capitalist industry is solely to blame, to actually settle the science.

If Earth was, in fact, still warming, and if it was still warming AND other bodies in the solar system were not also warming, (I'm waiting to see what those temperature curves start doing now that the sun isn't shining quite so brightly.) AGW might be tenable as the primary driver of "climate change". But would you please explain how anthropogenic gases are causing proportionate rises in the atmospheric or surface temperatures of other planets and moons in the solar system when our industrial contributions to those atmospheres consist of the occasional solar-powered robot probe. Or, how the Earth's atmosphere is miraculously insensitive to the changes in solar output which is apparently driving these other planetary heat waves. (Yes, the solar "constant" does change-- by a few tenths of a percent. The changes that have been observed correlate with sunspot count. More sunspots, more total radiation. The current dearth of sunspots is being accompanied by a reduction of the solar output by the usual amount.)

Never mind that Carbon Dioxide is about the weakest "greenhouse gas" there is. Water vapor and methane are both orders of magnitude stronger.

You wonder why we don't trust you?

Besides, why are you so worried? Aren't we all going to die in December 2012 anyway?

-- Paul

PS-- All you Gaians out there. Are you so sure that the Great Mother didn't engender us for the specific purpose of getting all of that lovely Carbon back into the ecosystem, not to mention getting rid of all of that nasty, desolate ice while we're at it?
Posted by rocket ride
8th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
Paul,

What makes you think science should be "fair and balanced" or impartial? Isn't it about looking at the empirical evidence and following where it leads? That's what I see for the most part on RealClimate.org.

I ROTFLMAO every time I see someone try to put down the hockey stick graph. There are any number of other studies by other scientists using different data sets that have been done in the ensuing 11 years since the original graph came out that have confirmed the original is basically correct even if some of the details were off.

To quote you: "The problem with a conspracy is that like any secret, it can be kept by two people only if one of them is dead." And yet the "warmist" conspiracy is so good that it's managed to hold together, despite the fact that there are thousands of scientists studying climate, since at least the 1960s (President Lyndon Johnson was briefed on the potential for global warming from CO2 emissions in 1967 or 1968). Again ROTFLMAO!

Regarding solar system warming in general, I don't believe there is any evidence for warming on Mercury or Venus. If the Sun is the cause of global warming then there should be even stronger evidence from those two planets since they are closer to the Sun than the Earth.

Water vapor and methane may be stonger greenhouse gases than CO2 but their concentration in the atmosphere is limited by their physical characteristics. If the concentration of water vapor gets too high then we get rain or snow or heavy dew, etc. Methane is a highly reactive gas that has an average lifetime in the atmosphere of about 8 years. It oxidizes to produce one CO2 molecule and two H2O molecules. CO2 on the other hand is relatively inert and has an average lifetime in the atmosphere of hundreds of years.

Human systems and our complex civilization in particular have evolved for the current conditions. Changes in those conditions will be disruptive, the only question is how disruptive. By changing the atmospheric conditions as we have we're running a large uncontrolled experiment on the Earths planetary systems with no assurance what the results will be. Wouldn't it be better to be cautious about that until we have a better idea of the changes we're engendering?

Dave
Posted by riverat1
9th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
Don't bet on it!!!
The president already said he will use executive order if his agenda doesn't pass in congress.
Posted by wcallahan@...
11th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
Dave,

"Fair and balanced" or impartial in the case of science relates
precisely to looking at the empirical evidence and following
where it leads, but lets not get caught up in semantics - I think
we agree here.

Paul did a great job of addressing the mechanics of how people
conspire, which has nothing to do with secrecy but with
groupthink and defending positions. I LOL when I hear people
claiming that scientists are objective.

We've seen a flattening of the warming curve and perhaps a
slight decline as even Phil Jones admitted, so I don't see how
the hockey stick graph is valid except for those who continue
to screen out inconvenient facts.

Its not cautious but incredibly harmful to many of the world's
poor to massively curtail CO2 emissions, especially given the
strong counter-evidence for AGW. It would be more cautious to
get the science right, wherever the facts lead, than to engage in
the politically-driven agenda of cap and trade.
Posted by pranavb99@...
11th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
"... creating jobs, competing with China, and cleaning the air... " These are not "bad" ideas for the economy or the nation. It just has to be approached in a reasonable way. The bigest deterent is that the Federal Government has not had a reasonable approach to anything in the last century.
Posted by Bill_K_NY
11th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
I don't need no stinking global warming model to be scared...
I've been studying geologic history since I was six years old, and when you look at the 1st mass extinction theories, that is enough to get your blood rushing!

As I see it the only factor that holds credence from what happened at that boundary was methane Clathrates theory on emissions during the huge volcanic eruptions in Siberia 250 million years ago between the Permian and Triassic periods.

Although there are plenty of scientists that say there is no threat from that source either. Since wetlands could be the only other source of methane introduced to the atmosphere, next to bovine flatulance; maybe we should be looking to mine Calthrates and quit using and looking for oil?

How hard could it be to get it? Introducing warmer seawater to a Calthrate mass will release the gases for entrapment, and seems like an engineer could easily figure that out! It is no more crazy than the deep sea oil explorations that they are coming up with now! Since methane is the most dangerous of the climate change gases, shouldn't we be burning them instead? We already have solved the reforming problems with fuel cells on methane already! We could be using methane/methanol on fuel cells now, and we already have the infrastructure in place to handle it.

Factories are already ahead of the curve on this, and are switching to methanol fuel cell technology now, in their material handling equipment, and are regularly reporting 45 to 55% ROI on costs! I do not work for any person or company, so I am not a shill working for the natural gas concerns.

Burning natural gas would slow our introduction of carbon to the atmosphere and make us more energy independent. I am actually more concerned about that, than any other factor. You want me to join the earth warming band wagon? Sure! If it will get us OFF foreign energy reliance I will jump on that band wagon in a heart beat!!
Posted by JCitizen
11th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
pranavb99,

Yes, following the evidence is the essence of science. Scientists aren't always objective but it's painting with a pretty broad brush to accuse a whole field of science of falsifying their research and misleading the world. If you want to make a name for yourself in science just find something that revolutionizes and improves the field. I feel confident that out of the thousands of climate scientists around the world that plenty have those sorts of ambitions and if they could find anything seriously wrong with the current consensus we would be hearing about it.

The warming curve has flattened somewhat in the 2000s compared to the 1980s & 1990s but there has been no decline. Phil Jones said the warming trend was slightly under the standard for statistical significance which means it was slightly below the 95% confidence level. He didn't admit there had been a decline. The original "hockey stick" graph ended in 1998, the year it was published. A number of other studies done since then by different research groups using different proxies essentially support it.

Many of the worlds poor will still be poor regardless of whether we reduce CO2 or not. It would take over 5 Earths to support 6+ billion people and the standard of the USA. Many of the worlds poor will suffer greatly if we don't do something about AGW. It's already affecting villages in the polar regions of North America, people living in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh and may be a factor in the Darfur situation as nomads have been forced south into farmers land by the desertification of their traditional lands.

I have yet to see any serious science that challenges the fundamentals of climate science, conspiracy theories notwithstanding. Cap and trade is merely a market mechanism to reduce CO2 emissions. It worked well for SO2 and the acid rain problem. I think a straight up carbon tax would be better but it contains the dreaded "T" word.
Posted by riverat1
11th Mar 2010
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Did 'cap and trade' go up in smoke?
I sure as HELL hope so..
Cap and Trade goes with the TOTAL LIE of Climate Change and is ONLY a way to make money of the LIE.
WE DON"T NEED A CARBON TAX
what a bunch of tree hugging idiots
Posted by verd@...
12th Mar 2010
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