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Tech bubble? Maybe not. Education bubble? Maybe.

By | April 15, 2011, 7:37 AM PDT

There is no end to speculation that we are in the midst of another tech bubble, but a new perspective out of University of Pennsylvania Wharton School seeks to calm these fears. If anything, valuations are climbing at a modest rate overall, according to experts at the school:

“One angel who works closely with an East Coast technology accelerator says he is seeing companies coming out of the accelerator pull in $3 million to $4 million in funding, compared with $2 million to $3 million for comparable companies a year ago. That is an uptick for sure, but it is small in the context of VC funding.”

In addition, many of the actual values of social network and cloud companies are unknown, since most have not gone public.

Instead, the bubble may be in another sector: higher education. (The Wharton folks may disagree, understandably.)  Peter Thiel, PayPal co-founder, hedge fund manager and venture capitalist recently told TechCrunch that investors are too cautious about tech companies to blow the sector into a poppable bubble. Higher education, however, is another story:

“A true bubble is when something is overvalued and intensely believed.  Education may be the only thing people still believe in in the United States. To question education is really dangerous. It is the absolute taboo. It’s like telling the world there’s no Santa Claus.”

Higher education is seen as the way forward to sustainable economic growth and competitiveness for nations and regions. In a tough economic time, it is seen as a way to advance into more secure jobs.

However, Thiel points out that not only does the higher education system cause people to incur massive amounts of debt that is difficult to pay, but also is highly exclusionary. As he puts it: “If Harvard were really the best education, if it makes that much of a difference, why not franchise it so more people can attend? Why not create 100 Harvard affiliates?”

In recent years, there has been a strong movement toward more market-driven, affordable higher education, in the form of private, online offerings that extend higher education beyond the traditional four-wall classroom. Such new offerings may potentially disrupt the higher education business model.

In the meantime, Thiel believes students and society would benefit more if students dropped out or would forgo college education and started new businesses instead.

In fact, Thiel is putting his own money where his mouth is: he is staging a competition in which he will pay 20 college students $100,000 over two years to leave school and start a company.

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Joe McKendrick

About Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick is a contributing editor for SmartPlanet.

Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick

Contributing Editor, Business

Joe McKendrick is an independent analyst who tracks the impact of information technology on management and markets. He is the author of the SOA Manifesto and has written for Forbes, ZDNet and Database Trends & Applications. He holds a degree from Temple University. He is based in Pennsylvania.

Follow him on Twitter.

Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick is an independent consultant and editor. Joe has performed project work for the following companies in the IT marketspace: IBM, Systinet/HP, Teradata. He has performed project work for the following organizations in partnership with Unisphere Research (Unisphere Media): IBM, Oracle Corp., International Oracle Users Group, Oracle Applications Users Group, Professional Association for SQL Server, International DB2 Users Group, International Sybase Users Group.

He writes for SmartPlanet and is not an employee of CBS.

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+1 Vote
+ -
Very interesting question brings up more.
Has higher education started to price its self out of business?
The latest government studies say todays collage/university graduates will still be paying off their debts when their grandchildren enter collage.

Has higher education lowered the quality of its product over the past 60 years?
Testing as entering freshman, after 2 years and after graduation found some startling numbers on over 2,300 students at 24 collages. When testing on their enrolled major it was found that after two years of college, 45% of students learned little to nothing. After four years, 36% of students learned almost nothing.

Has higher education lost its focus on teaching?
Most schools have seen over a 120 percent rise in administrative costs over the past 10 years while the numbers of teachers as a percentage of staff has dropped from almost 60 percent to less than 30 percent over the same 10 years.
Even with huge advances in computerization simplifying the tracking of students we have seen administrative staff to student ratios more than double nationwide over the same 10 years.

Not only are the administrative staffs larger, but they are paid more with salary increases that have out paced inflation and teachers pay increases.
Posted by Hates Idiots
15th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Tech bubble? Maybe not. Education bubble? Maybe.
1) If you base your evaluation of a college education on fact regurgitation, then no one can "pass." Fact memory is very short-lived. Hopefully, you are picking up critical thinking, problem solving, and communication skills in college. 13 years after college graduation I left elementary school teaching, gained an MBA, and became a computer professional. My successful career change happened because my liberal arts education. In fact, Jobs and Wozniak hadn't started playing in the garage when I graduated.

2) HIgher education hasn't focused on teaching. Institutions routinely seek "big names" while leaving actual teaching to TAs and 500 seat auditoriums. Does it make sense that college teachers have no formal education training and that their goal is to avoid teaching?
Less prestigious institutions rely on 'stringers' to carry the class load. These non-tenure track, part-time teachers receive no benefits and have little or no say in college matters.
3) I don't know if administrative staffs are porking out, but I have little sympathy for any institution that cares more about sports and personalities than delivering education to its student body. Any institution that fails to see the potential of using technology to reshape educational delivery systems is asking to go the way of the slide rule.
4) A high school counselor advised one of her seniors to forget about her dream of going to Northwestern Uni., based purely on the cost vs. ROI. How many times need that happen before a tend starts?
5) What is wrong with the US's attitude towards education? Just look at England; they just raised the tuition to ~$14000/year. Looks great next to NW'ss ~$40,000/year. The Brits run radio stations, such as BBC4, that tackle serious topics. Everyday. All day. Is the US allergic to In Our Time?
Open Univeristy offers higher education--degreed and non--to students all over the world.
The BBC runs websites for lots of topics--such as learning a foreign language.
Since 1597, Gresham College has offered free public lectures in lieu of enrollment in classes.
{I know the British pay an annual fee to underwrite the BBC. Theat license fee is less than my monthly cable bill and I'd trade all the "Dog the Bounty Hunter" shows and home shopping channels to get access to the TV/Radio shows the BBC streams today. I'd save over $2000 to boot.
Capitalism fails to provide all its customer base with what they want see, when they want to see it, at an affordable price.
In 1995 the cable channel Arts & Entertainment sponsored the famous Colin Firth version of Pride and Prejudice. Today it dishes out a pathetic bunch of shows exposing real people to the worst excesses of self-righteous voyeurism.
The gap is neither the technological in ability to provide a wide spectrum of viewing choices, nor is it prohibitively expensive to narrowcast programming. We lack only the will and vision to do so.}
Posted by d.j.elliott@...
15th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
Wild hand-waving
"Hates Idiots" says, blah blah blah "After four years, 36% of students
learned almost nothing."
People who are not idiots demand extraordinary proof for
extraordinary claims. And the first step is a reference to the source
of the claims, so that we can go and check for ourselves.
Apparently the source of these amazing claims is the voices that
speak in head of "Hates Idiots".
Posted by hscohen
15th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
Did they teach research in you school hschohen?..
Google the phrase collage students learn nothing.

Do not just read the articles, but chase them back to the source studies. It is interesting reading from a variety of left and right leaning research sources.

There seems to be bipartisan support of the conclusion that there is a problem in our higher education schools.
Posted by Hates Idiots
15th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
Education bubble? Definitely
Most people are now familiar with the "housing bubble", and how
it came to be; cheap money, easy to get loans, and tax subsidies
encouraged millions of people to spend money they otherwise
would have, and bit up the price of housing and the costs of the
resources that support the industry.

Is it so hard to understand that the exact same thing has
happened to education? Grants, subsidies, and easy-to-get
loans make it possible for parents and their kids of otherwise
modest means to spend into 6-figures on getting majors that have
no economic justification for costing so much. The result is an
education system that has become unaffordable to most without
the loans and subsidies, and people carrying student loan debt
nearly into retirement.

In addition, the value of a degree has been inflated nearly to
irrelevance, just as a high school diploma has.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
15th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
Another thing to consider is...
...that education is a business. They sell a product, which for
your most expensive schools is mainly prestige. They spend a
fortune marketing themselves. They pay their top talent generously,
and they pay as little as possible (if anything) to their grunt labor.

Oh, they like to pretend that they are not, but that just makes it
worse.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
15th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Tech bubble? Maybe not. Education bubble? Maybe.
I have undergradualte and graduate degrees, and I've done well. However, little of what I learned in the universities was of much real value. Incessant learning after graduation was helpful because I was able tailored my learning to my specific employer and career needs.

The reliance on diplomas as screening tools is a very costly way to choose employees. Something better needs to be put in its place.
Posted by marvinlee
15th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
Message has been deleted.
Posted by zhengttm
Updated - 16th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Tech bubble? Maybe not. Education bubble? Maybe.
@djElliott

Responding to your strangely contradictory claim about the
failure of Capitalism to provide its customer base with what they
want to see.

Capitalism (like Democracy) gives people precisely what they are
prepared to pay for.

Perhaps you feel *you* should decide what is best for everyone?


"Capitalism fails to provide all its customer base with what they
want see, when they want to see it, at an affordable price.
In 1995 the cable channel Arts & Entertainment sponsored the
famous Colin Firth version of Pride and Prejudice. Today it dishes
out a pathetic bunch of shows exposing real people to the worst
excesses of self-righteous voyeurism.
The gap is neither the technological in ability to provide a wide
spectrum of viewing choices, nor is it prohibitively expensive to
narrowcast programming. We lack only the will and vision to do
so.}"
Posted by DRTGuy
16th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Tech bubble? Maybe not. Education bubble? Maybe.
Has education become something we only consider viable when we're paying $35,000 or more a year or is it a personal philosophy where we spend a lifetime enriching our minds from any source where there's something to be gained by it? Higher education use to teach people how to use their minds better so they as a person could grow. Now it's just a place where we get diplomas but where the person is still dumb as a rock even after 4 years sitting in classrooms. Colleges have cared more about sports and less about academia for years and I doubt if we'll see that trend change. Intelligence is not based off of the paperwork we have hanging on our walls. It's based off of the ability to think through ideas and concepts and then hopefully make something new with whatever we've learned. Is this an old fashioned concept? I'm afraid it is.
Posted by forteinmo
17th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
Higher Education has become Lower Indoctrination
I submit that not only is higher education worthless (except for
math, science, technology, etc.), but it actually damages or even
destroys the value systems that parents and communities have
instilled in their young people. Send your bright but naive kid to
college and you get back a dour Marxist who is still uneducated,
but now thoroughly indoctrinated into a "progressive" (which is
anything but) agenda.

Capitalism is already providing the solution to this problem: online
learning. It just hasn't yet defeated the stodgy, old-fashioned
physical universities. But it will. In fact, in some fashion, it will
also replace lower education. Schools in the U.S. have become
warehouses for babysitting our kids. The indoctrination has
filtered all the way down to this level as well, making the public
schools incubators for dumbed-down, potential voters who would
vote themselves into socialist slavery going forward. But I have a
strong feeling that technology will eventually impact and dissolve
the current system. While this is truly happening in the blink of an
eye historically speaking, it is frustrating to see the potential we
have right now and the current poor quality of these institutional
relics that are running on momentum.

By the way, I teach a technology course every year at the local
college... at least my students are learning something useful.
Can't say the same for their other classes.
Posted by eastmont
17th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Tech bubble? Maybe not. Education bubble? Maybe.
Analyst said that the value of higher education today is very low according to his analysis.Millions of graduated students from college are not capable to find a job.
Posted by WebsiteValueCalculator
17th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
@djElliott has confused what people say they want...
...versus what they're willing to pay for.

I agree with him that most of what is on television is crap. But it's
the crap people are willing to pay for. People say they're
opposed to sex and violence on television, and yet they seem to
shun programming that lacks such in favor of programming that
exploits it. People say they want television to be more like PBS,
and yet they actually pay more money to see programming that is
not like it.

The problem with "capitalism" is that it exposes what people really
want, versus what they say they want.
Posted by JohnMcGrew@...
18th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
RE: Tech bubble? Maybe not. Education bubble? Maybe.
How about the AD bubble which certain search engines use to
generate revenue ? Our study shows that in a majority of
countries, especially developing ones, the ADS for which clients
pay the search engine do not generate any revenue. Pay per
click was one way of persuading the advertiser that his site was
generating revenue for him/her.
The only winner I can see is the SEARCH ENGINE and neither the
advertiser nor the poor user who has to see ads are winners in
any way. Guess it is like TV: TV survives because of Ads and so
do Search Engines.
My fear is that when the bubble bursts, will the Search Engines
shut down ?
Posted by raymond.doctor@...
18th Apr 2011
+1 Vote
+ -
Education about WHAT?
What does this say about education?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p0wk4qG2mIg

Isn't Harvard in Boston? Shouldn't these people have seen snow fall during the winter? But they didn't know it was summer in Australia when it was winter in Boston. What does that say about how they see and think about the world?

It must not be important unless the teachers tell them it is.

So what can everybody not attending the expensive schools do with these cheap computers? Are they the pin to burst the bubble? And that video was from 1989.
.
Posted by psikeyhackr
6th May 2011
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