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Predictive analytics at work: predicting traffic jams before they occur

By | September 29, 2010, 7:33 AM PDT

They call the New Jersey Turnpike America’s “Muscle Road,” and with good reason. It directly connects the largest metro area, New York, with the nation’s fourth largest, Philadelphia, and also serves as the gateway south to Baltimore and Washington, DC.  As it nears the New York region, it expands to 12 lanes, cutting through a colossal industrial landscape of refineries, factories, office buildings, airports, and port facilities. Close to 250 million vehicles travel the road every year.

Now, Bloomberg’s Dunstan McNichol reports, the agency that runs the turnpike has awarded a $652,000 contract to En Pointe Technologies Inc. to install technology that will detect impending traffic jams and alert drivers to divert away from the impending bottleneck — 10 minutes before the event happens.

The system has already been tested on the Garden State Parkway, another traffic magnet (especially on summer weekends), and achieved 93 percent accuracy in predicting traffic jams, Brian Gorman, director of technology for the New Jersey Turnpike Authority, is quoted as saying. He believes an accuracy rate of 90 percent can be achieved on the turnpike. The technology was developed by IBM, and has been already been employed on highways in Singapore and Stockholm (covered here at SmartPlanet).

The traffic prediction software, which will deliver alerts via electronic signs along the turnpike and Garden State Expressway, will be put into production early next year.

NJ.com and Newark Star-Ledger report that the Turnpike Authority says that traffic forecasts would possibly resemble color-coded forecasts, with green roadways meaning a delay of five minutes, green with yellow a delay of 10 minutes, and yellow with a lot of red meaning 15 minutes.

(Photos: New Jersey Turnpike Authority.)

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Joe McKendrick

About Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick is a contributing editor for SmartPlanet.

Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick

Contributing Editor, Business

Joe McKendrick is an independent analyst who tracks the impact of information technology on management and markets. He is the author of the SOA Manifesto and has written for Forbes, ZDNet and Database Trends & Applications. He holds a degree from Temple University. He is based in Pennsylvania.

Follow him on Twitter.

Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick is an independent consultant and editor. Joe has performed project work for the following companies in the IT marketspace: IBM, Systinet/HP, Teradata. He has performed project work for the following organizations in partnership with Unisphere Research (Unisphere Media): IBM, Oracle Corp., International Oracle Users Group, Oracle Applications Users Group, Professional Association for SQL Server, International DB2 Users Group, International Sybase Users Group.

He writes for SmartPlanet and is not an employee of CBS.

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+1 Vote
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RE: Predictive analytics at work: predicting traffic jams before they occur
Instead of wasting money on such software, however wonderful, we should be spending public money getting people off the turnpike and onto trains. The best thing to do is take lanes away so that there will be more traffic jams and therefore people seeking alternative modes of transportation.
Posted by jim@...
29th Sep 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Predictive analytics at work: predicting traffic jams before they occur
All this is to redirect the attention to technological solutions in stead
of facing up to the archaic infrastructure. It will not work.
Posted by jackvandijk
30th Sep 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Predictive analytics at work: predicting traffic jams before they occur
This makes sense if there are viable alternative routes. I'd be interested in knowing what percentage of drivers would heed the warning and divert to a different route. If too many, then the alternative route would become clogged. There's a good chance that any alternates are not really very good in the first place.

The suggestion by another reader that highways should be made more inconvenient is really not sufficient unless there are good alternate modes of transportation available. In many cases, the private automobile is the fastest way to and from work even when traffic delays the commute by an hour. If I know that it will take me an hour over the ideal travel time once a month due to traffic problems, and I know that choosing public transportation will add an hour each way to my commute every day, which should I choose? Making freeways worse means making sure that nobody has a good way to get to work.
Posted by AlanLaRue
30th Sep 2010
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RE: Predictive analytics at work: predicting traffic jams before they occur
jim, getting people onto trains isn't wasting money? Do you know how much we subsidize rail travel? On the other hand, the govt also subsidizes fossil fuels, which needs to stop now. Don't trust the govt get anything right. Just getting it to stop harming us.
Posted by pranavb99@...
30th Sep 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Predictive analytics at work: predicting traffic jams before they occur
@ jim@ Tell your idea to the paramedics trying to get someone to the ER. Yeah, that worked out well. We'll just leave the resolution to the heirs of the estate and the traffic authority.
Posted by zclayton3
30th Sep 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Predictive analytics at work: predicting traffic jams before they occur
Since they have a viable model to predict creation of traffic jams,
can that model be used to predict if architectural changes to the
interstate exchanges can prevent or reduce traffic jams?

Train, plane, and bus travel will always need to be managed by a
communal medium because there are no improvements that can
increase market value. It's not enough for your stock that it
doesn't loose money, it has to actually continually rise in value or
no investor is interested. Increasing size helps initially, but quickly
reaches diminishing returns. Improved efficiency improves things
initially, but also reaches diminishing returns. The only way to
show increasing stock value is to continually increase travel
costs, and then you end up charging more to travel in crowded,
oversized, high-efficiency vehicles than it costs for all the
individuals to travel separately in Coupe DeVilles burning leaded
gas. This doesn't mean we shouldn't push forward with efficient
trains or other types of mass transportation, it just means they
need to be managed by an organization that isn't driven by
market valuation. A non-profit might be nice, if you can figure out
how to make that work, otherwise it's a government agency.
Posted by rod.boggess@...
1st Oct 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Predictive analytics at work: predicting traffic jams before they occur
En Pointe Technologies is an Indian company that maintains a base in the US and a website to conceal who they really are. Their global owner is called Allied Digital Services. http://gujarati.economictimes.indiatimes.com/cmpnewsdisp.cms?companyID=1237andnewsid=208783

Milvets (http://www.milvets.com/) underbid them but the stealth Indian company got it anyway.
Posted by DoloresCruz
2nd Oct 2010
+1 Vote
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RE: Predictive analytics at work: predicting traffic jams before they occur
Ooops, they moved the story. But here's another one: http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2257177/
Posted by DoloresCruz
2nd Oct 2010
+1 Vote
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18 mile backup...
There was an 18-mile backup on I-495 in Massachusetts at 8 am today because thousands of commuters ignored TV and radio warnings of a 5-mile backup at 6:30 am from a major accident at 6 am.

All of these people left their houses after 7 am, knew of the delays and had plenty of chances to take alternate routes, yet they did not.

Do you really think spending millions on sensors and software for a predictive alert system is worth it when you know people will ignore it?

Better designed public transportation would be a better use of the money.
Posted by Hates Idiots
4th Oct 2010
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