SpaceX and similar efforts aren't supposed to be about being "spectacular". Quite the contrary; They are actually supposed to be about being "routine" and as unexciting as possible. Commercial users of space aren't at all interested in "exciting". They wish to provide useful and reliable services and make money. There's no long-term profitability in "exciting".
Remember, NASA's Shuttle program wasn't meant to be "exciting" either. Quite the contrary; it was intended (or sold as a means) to make space flight as routine as taking an airline flight. (A mission for which it was oversold and incapable of fulfilling)
It is true that people are of short attention spans and are quickly and easily distracted. But even though that characteristic may be viewed as a shortcoming, it also represents opportunity. After all, it's entrepreneurs looking for the next "exciting" thing that often pushes technology forward and ultimately improves our lives. There was a time when having a radio was very exciting. And then television was exciting. Then a color TV. Then a VCR. Personal computers were very exciting. A mere 20 years ago, owning a cell phone was exiting. Now, almost everyone in America can have a smartphone that does all those things in the palm of your hand; exciting enough that people camp out in lines to get the latest model. Eventually smartphones will become pedestrian and we'll move on to the next "exciting" thing. It's not all bad.
Do you remember where you were when the Dragon launched?
The era of commercial space travel is upon us, and if NASA’s Apollo missions are any precedent, it will likely become routine as the initial excitement fades. Interest in space will wax and wane.
You couldn’t escape the hubbub when SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft launched in May - my colleagues at SmartPlanet fired off a steady succession of articles. A commercial spacecraft linking up with the International Space Station (ISS) is absolutely novel in the wake of the space race and U.S. shuttle’s renowned run of service.
The Dragon is now tentatively scheduled to lift off for its second unmanned space flight in October - with many to follow. SpaceX earned NASA’s stamp of approval to run its cargo missions, and will triumphantly fulfill its service contract with the agency. The public will also be much less tuned in by then.
Even Elon Musk, the company’s prolific CEO, can’t endure our fickle attention spans. The latest gadgets, television, movies, politics, and tabloid gossip provide for endless distractions and interruptions. Our distractibility holds true beyond our own planet, and NASA is proof of that.
NASA was at the height of its popularity in the late 1960’s as the world witnessed its crowning achievement: the 1969 Apollo moon landing. Space was a big deal - both politically and socially - but then public interest began to wane with each succeeding mission. NASA only experienced a brief comeback during the 1980’s.
It’s not fair to single out SpaceX, because there’s plenty of other examples. NASA’s Curiosity rover has been eclipsed by the iPhone 5 launch. And I doubt that launching billionaires into space for kicks, which many other private enterprise aim to do, will prove terribly popular these days.
Could Musk and SpaceX pull off a comeback? Sure, and I hope that he and his team do. SpaceX’s inspirations stretch all the way to Mars and human colonization of space. Musk has stated that his goal is to make trips to mars as affordable as buying a house, and that’s a remarkable vision. Visions just aren’t always shared.
Government contracts sustain commercial space travel for the time being, but a key difference is that NASA has had the Federal government’s checkbook and wherewithal to stick it out for decades. We’ll mine the poles bare before we harvest asteroids or take other commercial activity into space and off the drawing board.
Will private investors be as patient if business goals fall much closer down to Earth? Probably not - unless there’s suddenly a sustained sense of urgency to back it all up.
(Image credit: SpaceX)
Related on SmartPlanet:
- SpaceX success super charges commercial space race
- First commercial cargo craft launch to space station imminent
- Historic SpaceX shuttle photos
- SpaceX makes history with commercial space flight
- SpaceX’s Elon Musk wants to make trip to Mars as cheap as a house
- SpaceX’s Elon Musk on why we must make life multiplanetary
- Space transportation to feature air launch system
