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Robots, automation to blame for ‘jobless’ economic recovery: economists

By | November 14, 2012, 6:40 AM PST

The economy may go through boom and bust cycles on a regular basis, but don’t expect job growth to be part of the upswings any more. Future recoveries from recession will likely be “jobless” because technological advances now enable troubled firms to shed middle-income jobs in favor of machines and automation. If these jobs are not recouped during subsequent economic recovery, future recoveries may well remain jobless.

That’s the dour view of economists Henry Siu (University of British Columbia) and Nir Jaimovich (Duke University), who point out in a recent article that “a jobless recovery is not simply an ‘economy-wide‘ delay in firms hiring again. Instead, it can be traced to a lack of recovery in a subset of occupations; those that focus on routine or repetitive tasks that are increasingly being performed by machines.”

This has been the case in the last three recessions, from 1990-91 to 2000-01 to 2008-09, they add. Previously, hiring would surge as businesses began to gear up again from a slowdown. Following each of the 1991, 2001, and 2009 recessions, per capita employment in routine occupations fell and never recovered, they point out.

The reason for this structural change in labor markets is the rise of automation, Siu and Jaimovich explain:

“Automation and the adoption of computing technology is leading to the decline of middle-wage jobs of many stripes, both blue-collar jobs in production and maintenance occupations and white-collar jobs in office and administrative support. It is affecting both male- and female-dominated professions and it is happening broadly across industries –manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, financial services, and even public administration.”

While Siu and Jaimovich may be right on target with their analysis of what is happening to existing traditional jobs, they fail to account for the wide range of entrepreneurial and new work opportunities that the same technology is creating. In today’s DIY (”do it yourself”) economy, there is an abundance of online resources for developing, testing and marketing new business ideas. Cloud computing makes enterprise-class compute power and applications available for pennies at the touch of a button. Mobile frees up users from the constraints of physical offices and workplaces. Social media opens up markets at virtually no cost. 3D printing enables customized mass production of everything from food to houses at any location.

This levels the playing field for new players. Plus, larger companies are in critical need of people with the skills to put these technologies into practice. Automation is causing a painful retrenchment of many traditional jobs. At the same time, it is creating new ways of working that have yet to appear on economists’ radar screens.

(Photo: Wikipedia.)

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Joe McKendrick

About Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick is a contributing editor for SmartPlanet.

Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick

Contributing Editor

Joe McKendrick is an independent analyst who tracks the impact of information technology on management and markets. He is the author of the SOA Manifesto and has written for Forbes, ZDNet and Database Trends & Applications. He holds a degree from Temple University. He is based in Pennsylvania.

Follow him on Twitter.

Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick

Joe McKendrick is an independent consultant and editor. Joe has performed project work for the following companies in the IT marketspace: IBM, Systinet/HP, Teradata. He has performed project work for the following organizations in partnership with Unisphere Research (Unisphere Media): IBM, Oracle Corp., International Oracle Users Group, Oracle Applications Users Group, Professional Association for SQL Server, International DB2 Users Group, International Sybase Users Group.

He writes for SmartPlanet and is not an employee of CBS.

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0 Votes
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DIY not for everyone
I'm an entrepreneur and I'm doing all right. But over my career, I've also worked as a college professor. Something I noted back then which has stuck with me is that only a fraction of the students I had then, had the necessary personality traits to be an entrepreneur. And yet, Entrepreneurs and Mondragons (co-operative entrepreneurship) should be viewed as the future of work and business.

The number one trait I see for an entrepreneur is the enjoyment of solving problems and the problem solving skills that go with it. What ever your product/service idea is, it is likely the solution to someone else's problem, and that will be your business. Even so, there WILL be problems developing it and the successful entrepreneur is someone who can foresee a number of these problems realistically and thus avoid them, but is also mentally nimble enough that they can also handle the unexpected problems in a timely manner.

In today's and the future's knowledge economy, problem solving is and will be the number one key to success. Therefore, you should enjoy it if you want to be successful.

However, my students, and many of the people who would like to work for me now, lack this sense of pleasure. To them, if they even have the ability, solving problems is painful drudgery. I'm not certain, but I suspect the problem lies with our assembly-line education system. However, I also recognise that even if we alter our education system to encourage people to find the joys in solving problems, there will be a significant minority that will still be poor problem solvers and hate solving problems.As a society, we need to find some method of resolving this issue.
Posted by mheartwood
15th Nov
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Posted by jerseystar14
16th Nov
+1 Vote
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Automation *and* out-sourcing *and* lack of training are the issue
This is a multi-prong issue of a jobless recovery - automation has it's place in the line of blame, but it's far from being the only reason! You simply cannot discount the impact that out-sourcing of manufacturing jobs to other countries spurred by cheaper labor, fewer environmental limitations, and corporate tax breaks to do so, has had on this situation.

The hollowing out of the manufacturing base in America took 20 years; with each and every recession forcing companies to find cheaper places in the world to produce products, and a stock market that expects high profit and increases, even in the fact of a slower economy, the base of work available in this country will take years if not decades to rebuild. Some of the jobs no doubt will be filled by entrepreneurs starting their own companies, but also by existing companies investing in the economy here, not just in their own corporate wealth.

Right now, there is also an unprepared work force for the jobs that are now much more technical due to automation. You can see it even now as companies begin to rebuild manufacturing in this country... there are thousands of CNC manufacturing jobs going unfulfilled because there are not enough properly skilled workers to fill them. And that's not the fault of automation... it's a training gap, and an easy one to fill. Provide the training for people, and the workers will beat a path to your door for these jobs.
Posted by anisahmichael
19th Nov
0 Votes
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Its all down hill from here
The only consolation is if anyone thinks its bad now, they have not seen anything. Its going to get so much worse in the coming decade. As always the excuse will be well people are just not trying hard enough, look at me I did just fine. People just love to make up fantasy why they (a very small minority) did well while all others fell to make it.
Posted by Kiljoy616
20th Nov
0 Votes
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The future
I always wonder at the notion that all we need to do is re educate the population and the jobs will be there for the millions of people working in the positions that were and will be eliminated. There is no stopping the progress and we wouldn't want to but the idea that we can train millions of CNC workers to fix the unemployment problem is simplistic at best. Each new automation job will replace multiple traditional manufacturing/maintenance/transport positions.
We went from an agrarian society to an industrial one a century ago where we needed a larger workforce. This is the polar opposite.
I would love to see some serious studies done on what the world would look like with half of its population unemployed. It is something that deserves much more forethought than humanity has given so far.
Posted by Rnicola
21st Nov
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