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Google’s self-driving cars: Reality or science fiction?

By | February 6, 2013, 7:20 AM PST

We may like the idea of simply pressing a button and going, but both regulators and the insurance industry are not so sure that Google’s self-driving cars have a future.

Google’s project to develop autonomous cars has been an interesting ride. Having continually tested its prototypes on public roads, and having previously lobbied for Nevada state legislation that would allow for autonomous cars to be driven on public streets, the project — begun in 2010 — is meant to help improve driver safety and make driving more efficient.

The prototype has so far managed to complete over 300,000 miles of testing, covering a wide range of different traffic conditions. Google’s team says the vehicle has yet to be involved in an accident while under computer control — although it’s worth keeping in mind that on public roads, the prototype always has a driver present — but whether this impressive record can be transformed into a commercial vehicle that meets safety standards remains to be seen.

Whereas Google would like to see these types of vehicles on the road within the next three to five years, red tape is yet to be cut. As Bloomberg reports, transport regulators and insurance firms aren’t displaying the same enthusiasm for the project as the tech giant.

So, what’s the problem? Just for starters, who would be responsible for accidents? Software used in such cars would have to have the same basic reactions as humans, and if there is a computational fault that causes a crash, would the driver or the software-making firm be at fault? Not only this, but vehicle safety standards would have to be assessed and potentially rewritten to account for electronics as well as mechanics — and knowing how governments work, this could take a while.

No system is faultless, and everything has a chance of failure. But if a computer system fails when you’re on the highway, not only could it prove more dangerous than usual — as your attention is unlikely to be fully on the road if something else is in control — and so a self-driving car would have to come with a plethora of safety mechanisms in place to cater for these issues.

Not only this, but such a system would have to be able to react to unexpected situations. For example, how would an autonomous car react if a child ran out into a road?

The technology may be shiny and new, but safety will prove a massive challenge before this kind of technology will be allowed to see the light of day when it comes down to the general public.

Dan Smith, associate administrator for vehicle safety at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) commented:

“It gets to be a massive challenge to figure out how will the government come up with a performance standard that is objective and testable for so many different scenarios where failure could possibly occur. Part of that has to do with if we should be looking at the underlying electronics.”

Some experts predict that to claw through all of the potential problems and to update legislation for autonomous vehicles could take between 15 and 20 years. There has to be a mechanism for drivers to take control of a car, and so if this kind of autonomous technology expands, there will be no sitting in the back or reading a paper while you “drive” to work — instead, it’s likely you’ll still be keeping your eyes on the road — and simply driving with some smart assistance.

Image credit: Google

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Charlie Osborne

About Charlie Osborne

Charlie Osborne is a contributing editor for SmartPlanet.

Charlie Osborne

Charlie Osborne

Contributing Editor

Charlie Osborne is a freelance journalist and graphic designer based in London. In addition to SmartPlanet, she also writes the iGeneration column for business technology website ZDNet. She holds degrees in medical anthropology from the University of Kent.

Follow her on Twitter.

Charlie Osborne

Charlie Osborne

Charlie Osborne does not have financial holdings that would influence how or what she covers.

She writes for SmartPlanet and is not an employee of CBS.

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+1 Vote
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The Answer to Red Tape
Government employees have a saying, "People go around, over, or under red tape." In my mind, and hopefully Google's, red tape is just another problem to be solved. Essentially the system of the establishment in the US, and much of the "safe" Western world, makes innovation nearly impossible, but other governments are not so strapped by statutes (which may be financially backed by an industry).

My solution to the problem is that Google should look to develop this system with a more favorable country. I'm sure there are a lot of places on earth who would welcome some cash and an improvement of their standard of living. Maybe that country can become the envy of the World.
Posted by Pronounce
6th Feb
+1 Vote
+ -
that's exactly what I thought when I read this
The US (or any developed Western country) is not the place to be pushing this. Hell, from what I saw India would be exactly perfect for something like this. Plenty of chaos to challenge the software (and to ameliorate by implementing the technology) and likely a much more agreeable government. I expect we'll see this type of tech in widespread use in other countries long before we even approach it in the US.
Posted by frylock
6th Feb
0 Votes
+ -
Driverless cars
are a long way off, although driverless vehicles like goods delivery might come before that - but probably on motorways and major routes only.

Urban roads are a complete nightmare from a software, hardware and social standpoint. We have to have complex mechanisms like insurance for when machinery breaks, or when humans err as it is - adding a layer of technology should in theory at least remove a lot of the need for it because it is more reliable.

What needs to change is the human perspective. Right now, a car driven by a human is slow to react and likely to make poor choices compared to a computer, which is why Google's cars have clocked up such a high mileage without accidents. The death toll from accidents caused by humans driving has been mitigated by technologies such as ABS, and more recently radar assistance, and that will only continue to become better over time.

Cars are beginning to be fitted with servos to self-park now, and that is going to break the public's opinion far faster than laws will change. Once we are used to the car parking itself faster and neater that us - and with no scrapes - we will probably begin to accept it refusing to drive into ditches, oncoming vehicles and other road hazards too.

In time, we will accept it guiding us to our destination, but we'll probably still pay personal insurance for the vehicle as a responsibility of ownership for any damages it might cause.
Posted by SiO2
Updated - 6th Feb
-1 Votes
+ -
Almost ready for Prime Time
First, has the driver ever had to take over from the car's AI? If not, then that's one proof that the cars are ready to start driving with the fleshies.
Second, these cars are better at their worst than any drunk driver at his or her best. If I had my way, they'd be mandatory right now for anyone convicted of a DUI/DWI.
Third, the manufacturer is always liable for accidents caused by mechanical defect failures. That means if the software is at fault, then the software company has to pay. If the mechanical automation system fails, then whomever built it is the one who pays. Or in either case, their insurance company pays out. Only 300,000 miles of testing, premiums will be high. Get a few tens of millions of miles accident free, and the premiums should go down.
Finally, as for if a child runs out in the road, there's no difference in reaction to if a boulder dropped in. You take the least hazardous alternative. Sometimes that requires running over the idiot child.
Posted by Dr_Zinj
7th Feb
-1 Votes
+ -
The insurance may be too expensive.
Just because they are not driving the vehicle will not clear owners/operators from liability.

If anything their liability may increase. As does that of the manufacturer.

http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2012/10/01/who-insures-a-driverless-car

In the end, while a driverless car sounds cool, it will likely end up costing everyone a lot more money than the average person may think.

http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2013/01/02/risk-on-autopilot

As with any technology so far, will this really improve safety or promote more risky behavior?

This article on the pros and cons of other automotive safety equipment sums it up nicely in a few sentences. "Here, ESC (Electronic Stability Control) delivers a bittersweet pill to insurance companies and safety engineers: the technology can make aggressive driving safer. That covers the permutations of aggressive driving, such as too aggressive for conditions or for skill level."

http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2010/10/07/the-art-of-stopping?t=auto

Experts did not see that problem coming with ESC. Accident numbers have dropped, but not by the numbers expected. Other problems, other causes of accidents were created by reckless driving by people who felt safe with these other technological toys.

What unknown impact will come out of driverless cars?

If the law calls for a passenger to be able to take control if needed, is it still DWI if a driverless vehicle makes it home, but the cops find the owner / passenger drunk at the wheel in front of their house?

What if a drunk passenger is incapable to taking the wheel in an emergency?

What if a drunk passenger manually over rides the driverless feature and tries to re enable it when pulled over by cops? Can the cops without a warrent access a vehicle system log that would tell them the vehicle was in manual over ride?

Lots of questions to be answered.
Posted by Hates Idiots
Updated - 8th Feb
-1 Votes
+ -
American Ingenuity?
I agree with many comments that point out the sad fact that American Ingenuity is stifled by the established American legal apparatus and by powerful lobby groups, such as the insurance industry in this example.

Don't be surprised if a developing country adopts and implements this technology before the US does.

Questions such as "What happens if a child runs in front of the car?" are missing the point, because right now with human drivers behind the wheel the child gets hit quite often. Instead the focus should be: Every year, there are over 30,000 vehicle deaths in the US. If this technology can cut this figure in half, to about 15,000, then this technology will have been a huge success, saving 15,000 American lives a year. Thus, people who are expecting technology to be perfect are missing the point. The goal should be an improvement on the existing human condition.
Posted by SirGabor
8th Feb
0 Votes
+ -
Whine whine whine
Everything in the U.S. is wrong wrong wrong and falling apart.
Our leaders are socialists, communists, fascists, dictators.
Innovation is so stifled ... nonsense.

I really have been trying to ignore the regular bunch of "oh so smart" commenters who just always show up. But not this time.

The self-driving car is not only coming in the U.S. it's ALREADY street legal in Nevada since June 2011. Also legal in Florida and California. Pending in Hawaii, New Jersey, Oklahoma and the District of Columbia. Google has been conducting a very smart and successful lobbying of states to make them street legal.

You think insurance companies are going to oppose self-driving cars? No, just the opposite. Once the vastly better driving stats start to accumulate you will pay higher and higher rates if you don't have a self-driving car.
The car radically changed America. The self-driving car will do it again.
Posted by Cmd_Line_Dino
18th Feb
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