Lets Create an Ever Growing Economy
The old approaches related to fixing, or should I say increasing, economic output need to be revisited as they all appear to be based upon the once acceptable assumption that an increase in population can and should always result in a growing economy. Now this is certainly no longer true due to the fundamental shift in average ages almost everywhere in the world. It seems that the worlds populations are getting older. So what does this have to do with fundamental economics? It is very sad but also true that for most of us our personal consumption rates change as we grow older. It seems that the magic age for consumption change is around 50 years. Look at the economic messes in Japan and also in much of Europe. They all are experiencing a dramatic shift in average age. The average is going up!
For the few who know this but still believe in an ever growing economy the error here relates to a belief that the worlds population can continue to increase forever. They must wake up to face reality and when it comes to reality here it must be learned that Mother Nature has set limits to the amount of food and other natural resources that are available or could be made available. We all need to survive, do we not? If we did not then the evolutionary process would have let the human animal die off some time ago in order to leave room for the rest of the animals out there. Increasing life expectancy is becoming a real problem and must be dealt with and soon.
Well, what are our choices? We could adopt a much lower birth rate for the entire world where over time the total population would come down and do so in a far more reasonable way than having more wars which in turn would kill off a lot more human animals. The war approach used so much in the past seems to be less acceptable as the costs to those left holding the tax bags are becoming be too much. So how else can we have an ever growing economy which will meet the limits set by Mother Nature and do so in such a way that the average tax bills can be reduced while increasing consumption? The answer is quite simple. Lower the life expectancy age from the mid to upper 70s to less than 50, in the USA that is. The rest of the world has different life expectancy ages but should have to reduce their accordingly as well. A gradual decrease in life expectancy can be done in such a way that there should be 2 additions to the less than 50 group for every 3 reductions to those in the over 50 group. This would result in a steady increase in the average economy while at the same time reducing the burdens on Mother Nature. This approach would have to continue for some time, that is until those who are older than 50 are no more and then life expectancies might have to be reduced once again.
To further justify this approach it is important to understand that globally, at least a billion people have no nearby source of water while of the remaining six billion or so only 42% have running water in their homes or a tap in the yard, according to the World Health Organization. At some point we are going to have to fix this mess or else.
Well, which do you choose? Do you want to fix what we all have to share and create an growing economy or simply accept the decline in real economic growth as Mother Nature sets her limits on the world population growth of the lower consuming elderly.
We’re well into the new year. And if we consider the relatively sunny results of a fresh poll of 390 world leaders form the spheres of government, business, and academia, we just might have a reason to feel hopeful about where the global economy is headed.
The Global Confidence Index for the first quarter of 2013, conducted by the World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network and Global Agenda Councils, was just released today, slightly ahead of the high-profile World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland from January 23-27. And it offers a refreshing sense of optimism–at least among top executives, diplomats, and thinkers.
Some notable points from the new study:
- The Economic Confidence Index rose to 0.43 from 0.38 on a scale from 0 to 1
- The number of respondents with either a “not confident” or “not at all confident” outlook for the global economy in 2013 fell to 43% from 56%
- The percentage of optimists who felt “confident” or “very confident” about the global economy increased to 23% from 17%
- The percentage of respondents who believed that a financial shock was probable over the next 12 months fell to a (slim) minority: 48%. This is five percentage points lower than a quarter ago and 20 points down from half a year ago.
Looking at these stats in the context of previous indices, a picture of hope emerges. The 2013 first-quarter survey illustrates the second highest level of economic confidence among respondents yet, since the WEF created the index a full seven quarters ago. Worries of a major economic crisis dropped to the lowest level to date.
Still, there were signs of “meh” feelings among many respondents, even if they weren’t pessimistic. A full 34% — slightly more than a third — felt “neutral” about the global economy.
“The first Economic Confidence Index result of 2013 gives us some cause for optimism, but the figure is still in negative territory overall,” Martina Gmür, Senior Director of the WEF’s Network of Global Agenda Councils, cautioned in a release. ”We still need dynamic leadership to drive the economy ahead and overcome challenges.”
Hopefully, the 2,500 participants to gather at the WEF’s annual meeting this week — including nearly 50 heads of state or government leaders, along with 1,500-plus top business executives, will be able to come up with not only new, but also viable, solutions to do so.
Image: the sun rises over Davos, Switzerland. By Andy Mettler/World Economic Forum/Flickr
