Why the Web is like a 286 chip
From 1977 to 1983 the PC industry experienced a boom and eventual bust that is eerily similar to the six-year boom-bust cycle of today's Internet industry (1995-2001). Back then, VCs also funded a staggering list of long-defunct companies, while crazy startups, and bearded and barefoot entrepreneurial enthusiasm abounded. Steve Jobs ring a bell?
And then, just as now, the breakneck pace ground almost instantly to a halt, while analysts rushed to pronounce the PC era "over." The culprit? In hindsight, many feel it was the sluggish 286 chip.
Where's the action?
If you weren't one of the "lucky" ones to own or regularly use a 286 computer, let me take you back to the days of my first PC. I can finally admit it, yes, I owned a 286 computer back when it was the best I could afford, and even recall marveling at the VGA monitor and how much better it was than the amber and green displays used at my office.
Problem was, the 286 couldn't do that much more than the old IBM XT when you thought about it. You could run Lotus 123 just as the IBM PC did, fire up WordStar for a little word processing, but the CPU was simply not powerful enough to do much more than the previous generation of processors. And so real computing progress hit a very dangerous question: Why open your wallet for a more expensive PC, if it really does the same thing as the older models? I believe that once people start thinking that way, the boom is over.
Consider now if you will, today's Web. When dial-up connections went like clockwork from 9,600 to 14.4 Kbps, to 28.8 and so forth, actual Web pages were also evolving to serve up better looking and more useful fare. In a very short amount of time, the average Web page went from blue underlined text on a gray background, to crude graphic images and text combined, to finally multi-column database driven "sites." With each new turn, PCs got faster, dial-up connections got faster, while the upcoming promise of always-on broadband for every household pushed the Internet world into development frenzy.
And then things froze, right at 56 Kbps. And stayed that way. And stayed that way.
Broadband blues
Unfortunately, while Intel was able to serve up the 386 chip--the CPU that many feel kick started computing into the graphical, interactive and highly profitable "PC Boom Part 2" we know today, no one has been able to kick-start faster Internet connections out of their dial-up 286-style existence. In fact, dial up connections to the home are increasing rather than decreasing, while the high cost and horror stories associated with DSL and cable modems, make the likelihood that real change is coming soon a near impossibility.
This is not to say that we're doomed, but innovation in the computing world comes from that wonderful see-saw effect where the processor is suddenly more powerful than the software, and then the software races ahead for a second and is more powerful than the processor, only to be shown up by an even more powerful processor. Online, the world is primarily shackled to a dial up connection that makes processor speed and software development moot. And as consumers yawn at faster PCs, and Web developers scale back their page sizes to accommodate the slowest surfers, the 286 world comes quickly back into focus. Which explain a lot.
At least for me it does. What do you think? Let me know in the TalkBack below.
Alice Hill was VP of Development and Editorial Director of CNET.com. She regularly writes about technology for ZDNet and Computer Shopper magazine and helps companies abroad build better websites. Her favorite topics include Buying Mistakes Beginners Make, Becoming a Virtual Merchant, Why Geeks Love Scooters and Do You TiVo? She welcomes your comments and *e-mails* alice@alicehill.com.